Rivals national recruiting analyst Ryan Wright along with Russell Johnson of JacketsOnline.com, Charles Fishbein of TheOsceola.com and Brandon Helwig from UCFSports.com tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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1. The Geoff Collins era hurt Georgia Tech’s future recruiting efforts more than it helped.
Wright’s take: FACT. Geoff Collins' predecessor Paul Johnson was with the Yellow Jackets for 11 seasons with just three losing campaigns and only one three-win effort (2015). Collins managed to match the low bar in each of his four seasons in Atlanta. Stretching back to George O’Leary turning the team around in 1997, Georgia Tech has been a winning program. Players want to play for a winning team that can help develop talent into NFL prospects; Collins set the program back in the perception department.
The Yellow Jackets showed players want to be in Atlanta landing a top-25 recruiting class in the 2020 cycle. The efforts since have hung around the top-50 mark. Excitement in the program has waned with fresh energy needed in the building.
Johnson’s take: FICTION. While on paper the recruiting classes each year under Collins took a hit, and the 2023 class is rapidly approaching the 60s, Georgia Tech is still in Atlanta.
Are there some strained relationships at some rather important high schools in the area? Yes. Was the recruiting strategy to recruit nationally at a school where you have so much talent just a car-ride away a bad one? Yes.
The new head coach at Georgia Tech, whether it be interim head coach Brent Key or someone else, is going to have almost a clean slate in terms of the 2023 class. The most important thing moving forward for the program is going to be showing action in recruiting to go along with their words. For the last few years, prioritizing the state of Georgia was an emphasis in press conferences and on social media, but when signing day arrived a substantial amount of the signees were from outside of the state.
That has to change.
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2. Florida State is on track for a top-15 2023 recruiting class.
Wright’s take: FACT. The restoration project in Tallahassee is nearly complete. Proverbial brick by brick, head coach Mike Norvell has built the program back up; this team is heading in the right direction in the ACC. Two of the three losses this season have been by one score, all three defeats against ranked teams. The staff can sell the future and the need for high school players to fill the depth chart. There is positive momentum at Florida State.
Talk to enough recruits in the Southeast, all of them have great things to say about Norvell, offensive coordinator Alex Atkins and the rest of the Seminoles staff. They are getting targeted recruits on campus and winning them over. Call it optimism, but I believe this staff can close strong, pushing to be in the top 15.
Fishbein’s take: FICTION. The loss of Roderick Kearney makes it more difficult now. FSU sits at 15 commitments. Another player or two in their class will end up somewhere else on National Signing Day. That is just part of the recruiting process that every team goes through.
To land a class in the top 15 now, the Seminoles would have to land all their remaining targets and that will be tough to do. Cedric Baxter would have to flip from Texas, Jalen Brown would have to flip from LSU, they would have to beat out Miami for Damari Brown and beat the SEC out for DJ Chester. It is possible but the odds of landing all four prospects would be tough for Alabama or Ohio State to do and they are top-five programs.
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3. UCF's momentum has slowed under Gus Malzahn.
Wright’s take: FACT. Fans may not want to jump off the Gus Bus yet but hitting a pause button on the overall enthusiasm is warranted. No matter how one slices it, the Knights left two wins on the field this season against Louisville and East Carolina. Another test looms large on Oct. 29 with Cincinnati heading to the Bounce House.
Going against teams with lesser talent, UCF looks like world beaters this season. But playing against teams on its level, it is rendered more ordinary and that’s not the expectation at UCF. Fans are accustomed to running through the AAC undefeated with hopes of earning a College Football Playoff berth. In their second seasons at UCF, both Scott Frost and Josh Heupel were blistering the competition producing a 13- and 12-win season, respectively.
On the recruiting front, UCF was on a hot path over the spring but has slowed dramatically since with just 11 total commitments. Georgia Tech, with no head coach, has a class rated higher than Gus Malzahn’s right now. Relying on the transfer portal is a hit-and-miss scenario with some troubled misses for UCF already.
Helwig’s take: FICTION. UCF entered the season with hopes of ending its run in the American with one more conference championship. The defense had played well all season and it appeared the offense finally figured things out during the Oct. 13 game against Temple. It was total domination with the Knights scoring 70 points and quarterback John Rhys Plumlee accounting for seven total touchdowns.
The road to a conference title hit a speed bump this past weekend with a 34-13 loss at East Carolina. UCF squandered scoring opportunities with three first-half turnovers while the defense had its first disappointing game of the season. Give credit to ECU though – fifth-year starting quarterback Holton Ahlers played probably the best game of his career, completing 30 of 36 passes.
For UCF, every game the remainder of the way now amounts to a must-win. The biggest test comes this Saturday when No. 20 Cincinnati visits Orlando. UCF dominated the AAC just a few years ago and now it's the Bearcats that have taken the throne with an 18-game conference winning streak.
The overall trajectory for Gus Malzahn and the UCF program remains upward, especially heading to the Big 12 next season, but this game against Cincinnati will be a barometer to gauge where they are on their journey.
