Fact or Fiction: Florida's Big 3 will finish in top 10 of Rivals rankings
Rivals national recruiting analysts Greg Smith, John Garcia Jr., Adam Gorney and Adam Friedman tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
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1. Florida's Big 3 programs will all finish in the top 10 in the Rivals recruiting rankings.
Smith’s take: FACT. As things stand right now in the Rivals team recruiting rankings, Florida, Florida State and Miami all have top 10 classes. There is sure to be more movement in the upper echelon of the recruiting rankings, but the Big 3 in Florida are all well-positioned to stay in the top group. There are a couple big things to watch though. Each team has players that teams are trying to flip off their commitment lists. Losing any top recruits to other schools looking to push their way into the top 10 will hurt. Four-star Florida State commit Lawayne McCoy has a lot of suitors after him. So does four-star Florida commit Amir Jackson. There is also the question if any of these schools can flip mega-recruit and five-star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. That would impact things in a big way, too.
Garcia’s take: FACT. It hasn’t happened since the 2012 cycle, but more than a decade later the Big 3 are collectively recruiting as such despite their variance in approach and on-field product. Miami had been on the outside of the top 10, looking in, but secured a pair of monster victories in October in five-star wide receiver candidate Ny Carr and then a legacy and the most productive pass-rusher in the home state in Booker Pickett on Thursday night. Each program remains in the final running for Rivals250 defensive lineman LJ McCray and each is making serious flip runs at elite prospects, so it appears more additions than defections are on the docket for each between now and the Early Signing Period.
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2. Florida is a clear favorite for Rivals250 DL LJ McCray.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. There seems to be significant confidence coming from the Florida side here, so the Gators have to feel good about their position. It seems like the biggest threat to Florida is Florida State right now, but I'm never counting out Georgia in any recruiting race, especially down the stretch. What also is tough here is that McCray doesn't talk at length about his recruitment, so it's difficult to decipher exactly which teams have the edge and if there is anything secretive going on behind the scenes. Florida has the edge, but it's not certain right now and definitely not a "clear edge" for him.
Garcia’s take: FICTION. We’ve been asking similar questions surrounding the Daytona Beach native, and at one point Florida was the clear program to beat, but it appears the month of October has begun to swing some momentum elsewhere. Auburn hosted him on campus and now has some confidence in McCray, and then he took an official visit to Florida State that could have begun to change the end result of his process. The Seminoles got the last intimate hours with McCray and his camp, and there is a sense the collective visit high has yet to wear off with the top available defensive lineman in the Sunshine State. Still, this may be anyone’s race, not only when he commits but when he signs in December. McCray is that coveted and things have changed with his own plans that much.
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3. Florida State has the best 2024 defensive back haul in the country.
Friedman’s take: FACT. I could make a strong case for Clemson here, but I'm giving Florida State the nod for the best class of defensive backs in this recruiting cycle. That could, of course, change after the postseason rankings update. Five-star KJ Bolden is a proven high-end prospect with the tools to be a star at the college level. The Florida State coaching staff has high expectations for the safety out of Georgia, but it will need to keep working hard to hold on to his commitment. Cornerback Charles Lester is one of the best prospects in the country as well. He has fantastic traits that should translate to the next level as long as he's able to consistently perform to his capabilities. Cornerback Ricky Knight gives Florida State three defensive back commitments in the Rivals250, which is second most in the nation. With four-star CJ Heard also on board, the Seminoles have the second-most defensive back commitments rated four-stars or higher. Clemson is the only team with more, but Bolden gives Florida State the edge.
Smith’s take: FACT. Clemson does deserve strong consideration here, but Florida State does get the nod for now. Lester is one of the best defensive backs in the country, and pairing him with Bolden gives coach Mike Norvell one heck of a tandem. Then add four-star Heard and Knight into the mix and this has the makings of a special group coming to Tallahassee.
There is a dark horse team I’ll be keeping an eye on though as we march toward the Early Signing Period: LSU. The Tigers have six defensive backs committed to the program, and four are ranked as four-star prospects. They could make things interesting down the stretch, depending on how the final player rankings shake out.