Fact or Fiction: Auburn benefits the most from Nick Saban's retirement
So much for a boring Late Signing Period, right? The New Year has come with plenty of juicy recruiting storylines down south, from Nick Saban's retirement, the ensuing ripple effect and so very much more. We'll focus on the Yellowhammer State in wake of the Saban news with the help of Rivals.com's Adam Gorney and Brandon Howard along with AuburnSports.com's Caleb Jones in this week's Fact or Fiction.
*****
FACT OR FICTION: Penn State will be leading for Anthony Sacca after visit
CLASS OF 2024 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2025 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2026 RANKINGS: Rivals100
TRANSFER PORTAL: Latest news | Transfer search | Transfer tracker/player ranking (football) | Transfer team ranking (football) | Transfer tracker/player ranking (basketball) | Transfer team ranking (basketball) | Rivals Portal Twitter
*****
1. Texas A&M and/or LSU is a serious threat to sign top undeclared recruit Ryan Williams.
Howard's take: FACT. Right now you could go as far as to say that anyone recruiting Ryan Williams is a threat for Ryan Williams. That said, if it comes down to just those two programs then Texas A&M seems like more of the threat than LSU at this time. Despite LSU landing top 2025 quarterback Bryce Underwood, it just seems like Williams has his attention more tuned to the Texas programs, Auburn and Alabama than LSU. Things could change at any moment but for now Williams seems to have a better connection with former Crimson Tide assistant Holmon Wiggins and the Aggies.
Garcia's take: FICTION. Both Texas A&M and LSU are relatively new to the party for Williams, who had previously been so zeroed in on Alabama and Auburn that Texas appearing as his additional finalist in early January was taken in as somewhat of a surprise. Sure, the Nick Saban retirement and Williams' decommitment has theoretically opened the door for all to explore trying to bring in the top undeclared recruit in the country, but the prospect himself has said the trips to each spot have long been about gaining the official visit experience he hadn't previously been able to take advantage of.
He was just back in Tuscaloosa and will return this weekend, so the staff under Kalen DeBoer has a legitimate chance to reel him back in while Auburn's pitch has never been stronger ahead of the Tigers getting the final visit. Williams signing outside of his native state's line would still be considered a surprise.
*****
2. Alabama fans should expect the Tide to recruit in the same range under Kalen DeBoer as they did under Nick Saban.
Gorney's take: FICTION. This is not a criticism of new coach Kalen DeBoer but just a look at the reality he's stepping into taking over for not only the best coach ever in college football but the best recruiter as well. Saban was responsible for 18 recruiting classes at Alabama and he finished with the top class nationally 10 times. Five other times, Alabama finished within the top three.
That is an incredible run and one that is nearly impossible to duplicate. DeBoer has won about 90 percent of his games which is incredibly impressive but he's only been a head coach for two seasons at the Power Five level and he's never recruited in the SEC. DeBoer has a chance to be really good at Alabama but Saban's recruiting record is probably untouchable and so setting reasonable expectations would be a good start. The first one is that no one else can recruit like Saban.
Garcia's take: FICTION. Gorney hit it on the head, DeBoer or nearly anybody else would be put in a similar light following Saban's recruiting run. It doesn't mean the Tide won't rally behind the new staff, coupled with on-field success, to get back to the top, but expecting it every cycle should be rare within the Alabama fanbase -- however spoiled or familiar recruiting success may be. Each year will be its own animal, especially in the new SEC with Texas and Oklahoma crashing the Georgia-led party, and Alabama should compete accordingly.
Is a top-10 type class, on average, good enough to be considered in the same range as Saban? Probably not, but it's good enough to aspire to compared to most every other program nationally. So far, so good, with the DeBoer coaching staff, by the way.
*****
3. Auburn is the biggest recruiting beneficiary following Nick Saban's retirement.
Jones' take: FACT. Hugh Freeze wants to build his program through in-state prospects and Auburn's chance to take the state has never been better. The Tigers have already hosted a couple of current Alabama commits since Saban's retirement, hoping that prior relationships could be enough to sway prospects like Zion Grady or Dontrell Glover away from a changing Alabama. Glover decommitted during the week after visiting Auburn. The Crimson Tide did a phenomenal job under Saban of establishing relationships early, one of the many reasons why Alabama did so well at in-state recruiting. Now, it might be Auburn's turn to hold the advantage over its biggest rival.
Garcia's take: FICTION. Hear me out. Within state lines, as Caleb outlined, there is no doubt Auburn benefits the most from Saban's departure. But nationally and in places like Florida and Georgia, essential pipelines for some of the best Alabama rosters we've ever seen, it's Georgia that probably benefits the most. Ohio State and probably Texas may come up before Auburn in some of those areas when it comes to elite recruits, and it won't all go away overnight, but Kirby Smart and these other head coaches not having to go head-to-head with Saban in December and January is a very big deal. Like it may have on the field, I'd expect Georgia to pick up the Alabama recruiting torch relative to high level success and finishing near the top compared to most others.