Orangebloods.com takes a look at three things we learned over the last week, two questions that are on our mind and one prediction. It's recruiting, recruiting and more recruiting in this week's edition of the 3-2-1 as we discuss how Texas strikes quickly again, an underrated hire arrives in Austin and potential flips to Texas between now and Feb. 1.
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
1. Texas fills two positions of need quickly
Texas hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in recent weeks with big national news on the recruiting trail, but honestly, any expectations of some miraculous recruiting run by the new Texas staff on its first few weeks on the job were probably a bit inflated.
In Tom Herman’s first few weeks on the job, he and his staff have secured a modest two pledges. But both commitments have been from key players who could help Texas as early as next year, and they’ve both been scenarios where the staff was extremely proactive in its approach.
In landing JUCO kicker Joshua Rowland, the Texas coaches quickly identified a major hole on the roster and acted swiftly in bringing Rowland in before the dead period began and securing his pledge. It’s not out of the question that Rowland could have as big of an impact on the 2017 season as any prospect Texas signs this year.
In the second commitment, from Under Armour All-American running back Toneil Carter, it was another case of Texas staying on top of a rapidly-moving story and striking at a time when some schools may have been caught off guard. Carter, of course, had been committed to Georgia for close to six months but Texas had been in touch earlier this month, and when things began to appear they were shaky with Georgia late last week, the UT staff was aggressive in its pursuit of the Rivals250 member. The end result was a decommitment from Georgia on Monday morning and a commitment to Texas about five hours later.
It’s no secret that running back is one of Texas’ biggest need positions for the 2017 class, and in three weeks the current staff has made much more headway at the position than the previous staff had done over the course of the last year. While the previous staff had put all its eggs in the J.K. Dobbins basket, the new staff not only went after Dobbins aggressively, but also worked hard to get its foot in the door on a few other backs like Carter, Eno Benjamin and Daniel Young. Those efforts paid off in a big way on Monday with Texas picking up a commitment from an elite player who will be enrolling in January, and there’s still a chance the Longhorns could bring in another player at the running back position before the dust settles on the 2017 class.
There’s still a lot of work to be done in the next six weeks, but the first two commitments under Tom Herman’s watch could both be immediate-impact players and they both happened as a result of the current staff’s thoroughness and aggressiveness.
2. Walker Little's commitment to Stanford was not a surprise
The Longhorns missed out on a potentially big commitment on Friday when five-star offensive tackle Walker Little selected Stanford over Texas. There’s no denying that fact – Little’s a tremendous talent and he’ll be a very good player for the Cardinal.
But the meltdown that followed Little’s decision, while not at all unexpected, was a bit overblown. I said before Little’s decision, and after, that win or lose, it was far too early and unreasonable to judge the current staff on the outcome of Little’s commitment. If he chose Texas, celebrate the victory and the addition of a terrific talent to the roster. If he chose Stanford, wish the young man luck and understand that Texas entered that race trailing by a sizable distance with the teams coming down the home stretch. The Longhorns showed a nice kick to the finish to make it interesting, but just couldn’t overcome the deficit.
Landing Little would have been a nice sign that the new Texas staff could have closed the deal in a short time on one of the top prospects on UT’s board, but losing him isn’t at all an indicator of how this staff will fare as recruiters moving forward. In fact, as I’ve said on the boards, those judgments should probably be pocketed for about 12 months to give the new coaches a chance to evaluate, build relationships and close on the top prospects in the state.
3. The hiring of Craig Naivar may pay off handsomely
Texas announced the additions of assistant coaches Todd Orlando and Craig Naivar on Monday, and most of the focus was on Orlando, which makes sense since he’ll be the guy in charge of leading the Texas defense. But in Naivar, Texas gets a coach who is highly-regarded as a recruiter by those in the media who have covered him.
I put these comments on the board a while back in a bit of a drive-by post, but they’re worth repeating since most probably missed them …
"He's probably the most relentless recruiter on the staff. He's a savage when it comes to recruiting. He lives on the road, at school, at their games. He's a hard-nosed guy,” one media source said. “There's no fluff to him at all. He's going to tell itto you like it is, good or bad. Players respect him because he doesn't sugarcoat things. Same way in recruiting. He's a great recruiter.
"I’m not sure how the Longhorn Network is going to take it. He's the loudest guy on the field. Unfiltered. He's going to drop f-bombs, going to have his hat on backward. He doesn't stop. As much as everyone talked about what a great recruiter Brian Jean-Mary was, I think you're going to see people say the same about Naivar once you give him a full recruiting cycle. Has always recruited the Houston area and recruited it well."
Naivar may not have a dramatic impact in the final six weeks of the 2017 recruiting season, but if his reputation is accurate, he could be the kind of recruiter for the Longhorns who is able to help land top talent on a consistent basis.
TWO QUESTIONS
1. With Walker Little off the board, can Texas find its 'bell cow' of the 2017 class?
Their rankings aren’t equal, but the loss of Little is pretty much mitigated by the addition of Carter. Both are top national prospects, but neither has the type of personality that’s he’s going to go out and lead the charge on a bunch of other prospects, helping add them to the commitment list of his school.
So who could Texas land that could help bring in other top prospects? Honestly, I’m not sure that guy is out there for the Longhorns. In fact, the state really doesn’t have that type of prospect in this year’s class – there really is no Malik Jefferson-type in the state this year who has a Pied Piper effect on other recruits.
We’ve already seen the current group of Texas commitments – led by Sam Ehlinger, Kobe Boyce, Josh Thompson and LaGaryonn Carson – be very active promoting Texas to other prospects through social media, and that’s the kind of push you can probably expect for the rest of the recruiting season.
If Benjamin joins the fold, he’s the type of dynamic personality who could help Texas during the week of the Army Bowl if the timing was better, but with him not announcing until the game itself, it’s not like he’ll be actively recruiting in the days leading up to the game since he won’t want to tip his hand.
Last year, the Longhorns’ recruits –both committed and uncommitted – were on a massive group text message chain that also included a number of current Texas players. The bonds built up in those conversations were big in helping guys like Brandon Jones and D’andre Christmas feel comfortable enough to pull the trigger for Texas. We haven’t seen that same level of peer-based recruiting in the 2017 class and at this point, I doubt we will.
2. How many players will Texas flip from other programs?
Carter’s commitment wasn’t necessarily a “flip” in the traditional sense of the word, but it was still a case of the Longhorns securing a commitment from a player who was previously committed elsewhere. I’m expecting several others over the next month.
If you look at Texas’ current offer list and expected visitors for the month of January, I’d expect the number of flips to rival what Charlie Strong did in his individual recruiting seasons at Texas. Let’s consider some of the most likely candidates (and this list will certainly grow as more offers are extended):
RB Eno Benjamin
RB Daniel Young
WR Omar Manning
TE Cade Brewer
TE Reese Leitao
OL Grant Polley
DB Kary Vincent
Of that list, I’d put Texas’ chances at greater than 50 percent with six or seven, and I expect several other names to enter the mix in the coming weeks. The way things look right now, I’d expect more than 1/3 of this year’s Longhorn class could be made up of players who were previously committed elsewhere, and that number could even approach 50 percent.
Regardless, it should be a fun month of January.
ONE PREDICTION
1. Carter won't be the lone RB commitment in 2017 class
With Monday’s commitment of Carter, the next question is if the Longhorns will be done at that position or if they’ll still have a chance to reel in Benjamin or Young, both of whom hold Texas offers.
Benjamin is expected to commit at the Army All-American Bowl on Jan. 7, and though he hasn’t commented in the hours after Carter’s commitment, I still like where Texas stands with the Wylie East product. Benjamin hasn’t exactly been bashful about how he feels about the Longhorns and in my conversations with him in the past, he’s never struck me as a young man who lacks confidence or is afraid of competition. I’ll look forward to catching up with Benjamin in San Antonio during Army week, but the guess here is that Texas is still the team to beat.
If the Longhorns miss on Benjamin, there’s still a solid chance Texas could flip Young from Houston. Young is scheduled to take an official visit to UT on Jan. 13, but he’ll follow that trip up with an official visit to Houston on Jan. 20. Getting young to flip could be difficult, especially with Houston having the last crack at hosting him for a visit, but Texas will have plenty to sell … if Benjamin doesn’t commit first.