Recruiting predictions for 2017: Big Ten

The Big Ten as a conference posted one of their best recruiting performances in 2016. Was that a one-year aberration, or are we seeing the beginning of a new era of Big Ten recruiting? Here are our predictions on what happens with the conference’s recruiting in the class of 2017.

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Not since 2010 has a school other than Ohio State brought home the Big Ten’s team recruiting ranking title, and the Buckeyes are certainly the favorite to win a seventh straight title in 2017. They already have 11 prospects committed in the 2017 class, two of whom are five-star prospects – offensive tackle Josh Myers and cornerback Shaun Wade – and five more who rank in the Rivals250. The Big Ten as a whole recruited better in 2016 than they have in recent classes, but besting the Buckeyes will take a titanic effort. Ohio State’s total points in the 2017 class is already up to 1,431, which is more points than six Big Ten programs earned in the entirety of their 2016 classes.

Since 2007, the most five-stars that have signed with Big Ten programs in any one class is four. The conference is already halfway to that number with Ohio State holding commitments from five-stars Shaun Wade and Josh Myers. Ohio State may surpass four five-stars in this class by itself. They are the favorite for five-star wide receiver Trevon Grimes and are considered the team to beat for five-star defensive backs Lamont Wade and Jeffrey Okudah. Meanwhile, five-star offensive tackle Isaiah Wilson has listed Michigan as his leader in the past and five-star defensive end Joshua Kaindoh has previously declared Penn State his top school. The 2017 class only has 18 five-stars currently and that number is sure to grow, giving the Big Ten more opportunities for five-star signings. Based on early returns, surpassing four total five-star commits for the conference in this class looks to be a pretty safe bet.

Jim Harbaugh’s first full class at Michigan ranked No. 4 nationally and was headlined by the No. 1 player in 2016, defensive tackle Rashan Gary. The Wolverines, however, also saw a dozen prospects who were once commitments in the 2016 class not sign with the program on Feb. 3. Some of those prospects de-committed on their own volition, while others were processed out in Harbaugh’s recruiting system of “meritocracy.” The publicity Michigan received in January with their handling of commitments like offensive tackle Erik Swenson and defensive end Rashad Weaver has already been used against it on the recruiting trail by its competition. Michigan lost a 2017 commitment Friday from Georgia wide receiver Jeremiah Holloman and are likely to see the revolving door of commitments continue throughout the 2017 class.

While the Big Ten as a whole had one of its best recruiting performances in 2016, the conference’s eastern most programs did not fare particularly well. Penn State had the best showing at No. 22 nationally, but they stumbled to the finish and lost several commitments and a few close battles down the stretch. Maryland’s class, meanwhile, finished 40th nationally while Rutgers was No. 78 and dead last in the Big Ten. The Terrapins and Scarlet Knights, however, brought in new head coaches after the season and both have strong recruiting credentials. Maryland’s D.J. Durkin and Rutgers’ Chris Ash have been dynamite recruiters in assistant coach roles at big-time programs. Penn State already has one of the Big Ten’s best recruiting head coaches in James Franklin, and the northeast has a strong crop of talent in 2017 with nine of the top 40 prospects in the class coming from the region. The stars are aligned for all three East Coast Big Ten programs to rebound with stronger classes in 2017.

When looking at Big Ten programs that are poised to have stronger than usual recruiting performances in 2017, the Iowa Hawkeyes top the list. The momentum started when the Hawkeyes rolled through the regular season undefeated in 2015 and went on to play in the Big Ten Championship game and the Rose Bowl. Positive on-field performances have the biggest effect on the current group of juniors, because seniors largely have already formulated their opinions. Iowa has already capitalized on that momentum by building a strong core for the 2017 class with four in-state commits and most recently secured the commitment of four-star legacy prospect A.J. Epenesa, who is ranked as the No. 27 player overall in 2017. Iowa has not signed a top 25 class since 2005 and its classes have ranked outside the top 40 each of the last five years, but in 2017 it has the recipe to move back into top 25 territory.