On a short week, Michigan State (3-2) travels to Eugene for a Friday night matchup with No. 6 Oregon (4-0). The game is scheduled for 9 p.m. Eastern Time and will broadcast on FOX.
To learn more about the Ducks, we spoke with Scott Reed, publisher of Duck Sports Authority — the website for all things Oregon on the Rivals network.
What are Oregon's strengths and weaknesses? What does quarterback Dillon Gabriel bring to the table? What are realistic expectations for the Ducks in 2024? Oh, and how is former MSU defensive lineman Derrick Harmon doing in Eugene? Scott answers these questions and more.
1. Oregon currently sits at 4-0 with a pair of closer-than-expected wins at home over Idaho and Boise State, and then two blowout victories on the road over Oregon State and UCLA. What do the Ducks do well and what does the team still need to improve upon moving forward?
Scott: The biggest factor right now is still working on better offensive line play. During the first two games, the Duck offensive line rotation was in flux and gave up seven sacks through the first six quarters of the season. Given that Oregon had allowed only five total sacks all of last year, this was alarming. A changeup at the starting guard spot putting Nishad Strother at guard and moving Poncho Laloulu back to center helped, but outside of running back Jordan James, the Oregon rushing game has not had the kind of lanes that Oregon fans have become accustomed to for the backup running backs.
Defensively, the Ducks are better in the defensive backfield than last year and while their sack numbers do not stand out, they create a lot of pressure and force throws into coverage. Through the first four games, the Ducks are allowing just a 50.8 percent completion rate and 4.91 yards per attempt. Two transfers, Jabbar Muhammad (Washington) and Brandon Johnson (Duke) have really helped out following the injury to last year’s starter at cornerback, Jahlil Florence, which cost him the last three games of last season and all of this year so far. The "unsung hero" of the defensive backfield is Tysheem Johnson, who is quietly putting up a solid season with the best coverage grade of anyone in the defensive backfield.
2. What has Oklahoma transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel brought to the Oregon offense? Which other players on offense should Michigan State fans expect to make an impact for the Ducks on Friday night?
Scott: Gabriel is not a clone of former Oregon quarterback Bo Nix – but what he does similar is operate within the offense. Until the bad decision on Saturday night (a pick-six against UCLA), he had not really made a "bad" throw all season. He has completed 81.5 percent of his passes and is throwing for nearly 300 yards per game. What he offers is a different kind of running and scrambling than Nix. His 54-yard touchdown run against Oregon State was a good sign that Oregon is not going to shy away from running the QB.
Gabriel's favorite target by far has been wide receiver Tez Johnson (33 receptions for 311 yard and four touchdowns) through four games, but a triumvirate of others are threats as well. Wide receiver Traeshon Holden (15 catches for 211 yards and three touchdowns) has been a solid threat, while tight end Terrance Ferguson (14 catches for 177 yards)) and Texas A&M transfer wide receiver Evan Stewart (14 receptions for 162 yards and one touchdown) have created enough options to keep teams from focusing coverage on one receiver.
Jordan James is the primary running back. He has not had any "explosive" runs this season, but is very reliable with 6.0 yards per carry. No one from the staff will say one way or another, but the number of carries this season for James (64 through four games) is one where there is some kind of load management, which is going to help down the line, but has created some issues when he is off the field. Running back Noah Whittington is coming off of an ACL injury from last season and has not looked fully like he did prior, so that is just a name to monitor offensively.
3. Who are the impact players on Oregon's defense and why?
Scott: Well, there is the one Michigan State fans will know – defensive tackle Derrick Harmon. He is second on the team in total tackles, leads the team in quarterback Pressure (18) and has also been very good at passes defended. Edge rusher Jordan Burch is fourth in total tackles and second in quarterback pressures (16) and has also been very good at passes defended through the first four games.
Matayo Uiagalelei leads the team in sacks with three, but is also very good in run defense – something for which he does not always get credit. He is very disciplined in his role and does the little things right most of the time. He tends to split time with fellow sophomore (and defensive line Coach Tony Tuioti’s son) Teitum Tuioti.
Linebackers Jeffrey Bassa and Jestin Jacobs have been limited early on this season – Bassa with an ankle injury that slowed him down for a couple of weeks and Jacobs playing more situationally early on this season with just 62 snaps.
But it is two-sport star Bryce Boettcher who is really getting a lot of the spotlight so far this year – and deservedly so. The baseball center fielder who was drafted by the Houston Astros this past summer is leading the team with total tackles (and it’s not close) and has been a leader on the field. Focused on one sport right now, he is showing that he has potential at the next level in football as well.
4. Oregon has the advantage of playing at home, but do you have any concerns that the Spartans could pull off an upset victory on the road coming off of a short week? Do you see any advantages for MSU in this contest due to the short turnaround time and are there any matchups on the field you think MSU can capitalize on?
Scott: The biggest advantage I see for Michigan State is a familiarity. MSU head coach Jonathan Smith was the coach at Oregon State in 2022 when Oregon was upset in Corvallis and again last year in Eugene. While I think there were issues with that OSU team being a little bit disheartened over the pending departure of Smith, he is a smart football coach, and he has seen plenty of Oregon to know what they do and how to defend them.
The one thing the Spartans will have on offense that could really cause problems for the Oregon defense is their quarterback, Aidan Chiles. Oregon has historically struggled to contain running quarterbacks. That is sort of ironic given the Ducks' own history at running spread option for so long, but it was an issue earlier this season and I could see the Spartans using the aggressiveness of the defense to their advantage and getting Chiles to the edge to make plays with his feet that will open up the rest of the offense with that threat.
As for pulling off an upset – Friday night games and late Saturday games are always weird. The moniker "After Dark’" when referencing the former Pac-12 Conference was a real thing and there is always the concern of looking ahead to the following week when the Ducks host Ohio State.
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning has typically been able to keep his teams focused on one game at a time and I have not seen any evidence that this team is prone to looking forward. The first two games probably helped a lot in that regard since the hype train came to a screeching halt following the near miss at home against Boise State.
5. What are the expectations for the Ducks this season? Is it a Big Ten Championship or bust? Would not making the 12-team College Football Playoff be looked at as a failure?
Scott: There was a lot of hype preseason that created an expectation that the floor for this team was the playoff. The early struggles on the offensive line may have tempered those expectations and created a more realistic look at the season. There are a lot of winnable games on the schedule still, but there are also a few losable games that will make the difference on whether this team gets into the College Football Playoff or misses that opportunity.
The talent is there at a lot of spots, and this might be the best defense Oregon has fielded in at least a decade, but the Ducks are going to have to win some tough games in hostile environments (Michigan, Wisconsin) while also facing some tough tests at home (Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois). If the Ducks get through the regular season with a single loss, they will definitely make the playoff – but it gets dicey with two losses because there are going to be some teams with softer schedules that might have a better record and get that chance ahead of the Ducks.
6. What is your score prediction?
I always go back and forth when there is a large spread. Oregon has only covered the spread in a single game this season – at Oregon State. The spread for this opened at 26.5 and has gone down a little bit early in the week. I still think that might be a little too large.
The one thing I know about former Oregon State coaches (and this dates to a trip Oregon took to Nebraska) is that they still really want to beat Oregon irrespective of where they are coaching. The Mike Riley staff was very loud following Nebraska’s win over the Ducks in 2016. While I wasn’t at any of the other Nebraska games that season, it was clear that beating Oregon still meant something to the former Beaver staffers and I am sure that it still does to Smith. Will he admit it? Probably not. But it’s there.
Smith will have his team very well prepared for the game and I think – as Ryan pointed out to me earlier in the week in terms of penalties – the discipline seems to have improved. Will they make some mistakes and some self-inflicted wounds? Yes. But I am not sure I see a spread covering blowout here.
Oregon took its foot off the gas against UCLA in the fourth quarter, so I am not sure that the outcome was as close as the score in that one. I do think that Oregon will be able to move the ball and score. While Gabriel made a very big mistake late in the first half against UCLA, he is still completing 81.5 percent of his passes and if there is one area in which Oregon is elite, it is the playmakers at wide receiver and tight end.
Jordan James has been reliable as a runner and while he may not be as explosive as former Duck Bucky Irving, he gets solid yards every time he touches the ball and is solid in protection and out of the backfield.
Defensively, I expect both sides to keep everything in front of them and make plays. Aidan Chiles will present a problem scrambling at times, but the Ducks have been solid in third down defense this season.
Oregon should be able to get enough points and pull away late. I am going to go with Oregon getting a fourth quarter touchdown to pull ahead for a 38-21 win.
