Coppin State (0-3, MEAC) at Virginia (1-0, ACC)
7pm, ACCNX
After a five-day break, UVa returns to the hardwood for their second contest of the season on Monday night, hosting the Coppin State Eagles at JPJ (7pm, ACCNX). The Wahoos will look to start the Ron Sanchez era 2-0, and take care of a second-straight home contest before the schedule ramps up, with a game against Villanova in Baltimore on Friday, and the trip to the Bahamas next week, which begins with a clash with Tennessee.
Tonight’s game is UVa’s second straight against a sub-#300 Kempom opponent, and the Hoos are heavy favorites. Coppin State was picked to finish dead last in the MEAC, already one of the nation’s lowest-ranked conferences from an efficiency perspective. The Eagles haven’t done much to shed their preseason expectations in the first week of play, either. CSU comes to Charlottesville with an 0-3 record, losing to Wake Forest by 15, High Point by 42 and Rider by nine in their home opener on Saturday. It might be a long season for the Eagles, led by head coach Larry Stewart, in his second year leading the program. Perhaps though, they can improve on last year’s brutal 2-27 campaign this season.
The Numbers
Coppin State ranks #363 in Kenpom, out of 364 D1 programs ranked there. The Eagles are dead last on the offensive end of the floor, and have been brutal in most metric categories. The Eagles have a 35.1 percent effective field goal percentage, are shooting 22.2 percent from three, 36.1 percent on two’s and 59 percent at the line. They’re also underwater on turnover rate, offensive rebounding percentage, free-throw attempts per possession, and pretty much any other area that’s measured. Coppin State has scored most of their points, 57.5 percent, on two-point field goals, which makes sense given their rough outside shooting numbers.
Defensively, Coppin State has not been great, but they’ve been better on that end of the floor than they’ve shown on offense. The Eagles rank 287th nationally in defensive efficiency, and did hold two opponents to 64 points, including Wake Forest. Opponents are dominating CSU inside though, making 62 percent of their two-point field goals. Still, half of the shots Coppin has defended this year have come from the three-point line. The one area that Coppin State has done okay with this season is offensive rebounds allowed, where they rank 104th nationally.
The Matchups
Derrius Ward, Gard
A 6-foot-6 senior wing, Derrius Ward has been by far Coppin State’s best offensive player this season. Ward is the only Eagle averaging double figures, at 15.3 points per contest. Ward scored 19 in the season opener against Wake, making 3-of-5 three point tries in the losing effort. Ward also scored 18 on Saturday against Rider, despite going 0-for-5 from three. Ward is on his fifth school, starting at La Salle before moving to non-D1 Harcum College, then back to D1 at UT Rio Grande Valley, then back to non-D1 at Florida Memorial, and now he lands at what should be his final stop, with Coppin State.
Toby Nnadozie, Guard
Another transfer, Toby Nnadozie comes to Coppin State from conference rival Maryland Eastern Shore. Last year, Nnadozie played in 29 games for UMES, scoring 4.3 points per contest, including a career high 17 points against Delaware State. Nnadozie is second on CSU in scoring this year, at 7.7 points per game. Nnadozie had quiet games against High Point and Wake Forest, scoring just five points combined in those two contests, but broke out on Saturday with an 18-point effort against Rider, going 4-of-8 from three.
Khali Horton, Forward
A 6-foot-8 sophomore from Erie, Pennsylvania, Khali Horton is Coppin State’s best big man. Horton is averaging 7.7 points and two rebounds per contests, and went for 11 points in last week’s loss at High Point. Horton had a strong close to last season, scoring a career-high 16 points in the MEAC Tournament against Norfolk State. Horton shot 34.8 percent from three lsat year, attempting three triples per game.
The Outlook
Quite frankly, in more than a decade of doing these game previews, Coppin State might be the worst opponent, at least from a metrics perspective, that I’ve seen UVa play against. The Eagles are picked at the bottom of a conference that’s already dominated by sub-top 300 Kenpom teams, and their early results confirm that it might be a long season for CSU. UVa, on the other hand, needs to take advantage of this opportunity, and should be able to dominate this game. Especially given Coppin State’s offensive struggles. It will be interesting to see how Monday’s game compares to UVa’s opener, and whether Sanchez and the rest of the staff have tweaked anything since the win over Campbell.
We expect UVa to play better than they did in last week’s opener, and handle an opponent that appears overmatched.