BadgerBlitz.com brings back it's Behind Enemy Lines series, where we get an opposing beat writer's take on the upcoming matchup.
For Week 10, we spoke to Adam Jacobi of Hawkeye Beacon and touched on the quarterback situation in Iowa City, early returns on new offensive coordinator Tim Lester and more.
What are the circumstances surrounding the quarterback change in Iowa City, and what are the expectations for Brendan Sullivan?Â
Jacobi: The circumstances surrounding the QB change in Iowa City? Well, let me start with the short version...
[7,500 words later]
But really, while McNamara's physical recovery from his last latest knee surgery went great, his timing and field vision never really recovered. His inability to score touchdowns in the red zone led to a quickly installed (and, in a moment of subtle foreshadowing, highly productive) red zone package with Sullivan at the helm, and by Northwestern week, Sullivan had already earned his way into rotation snaps before McNamara suffered the concussion that will keep him out for this week's Wisconsin game. The concussion just conveniently entrenched what fans had been eager to see for weeks now.
Even though he only joined the program in June, Sullivan has endeared himself to teammates with his work ethic, moxie and leadership — just as he did at Northwestern, though he wasn't able to earn a starting role there before transferring. Even on Saturday, Sullivan had his fair share of chirping to do at the visiting sideline, and there were still dozens of former teammates and staffers (including David Braun and, later, Pat Fitzgerald) there to greet and congratulate Sullivan after he led Iowa to the convincing win.
Of course, Wisconsin will be a tougher test than Northwestern, not for the least of reasons being the Badgers' ability to actually defend the pass. Sullivan completed 64% of his passes against the Wildcats, but if Wisconsin can disguise looks and force turnovers through the air, this game could get away from Sullivan just as easily as he ran away with it against Northwestern.The biggest hurdle for Sullivan will be changing the simple math that has plagued Iowa for most of Kirk Ferentz's tenure: what can the guy under center do to keep the defense from loading the box and crashing the LOS? McNamara's arm strength never returned to punish opposing secondaries for cheating up with any regularity whatsoever, and both the offense and opposing defenses knew it. Sullivan doesn't have McNamara's deft touch on shorter passes (McNamara has completed 75% of his passes to <10 yards this season), but his escapability adds a dimension that defenses never had to account for with his predecessor. Will that be enough to keep Wisconsin's linebackers thinking just long enough for Kaleb Johnson to find a hole and spring a long gain that wouldn't have been there with McNamara at QB? It's certainly one more thing they'll have to account for.
Sitting at 5-3 and alternating wins and losses the past four weeks, how does the Iowa fanbase feel about how this season has played out?Â
Jacobi: The alternating wins and losses against Power-4 opponents has made the Iowa fan base quite mad — not mad in an "anger" sense, but the sort of madness that Shakespeare and Lovecraft wrote about. It does not help matters of the average fan's sanity when the vaunted Iowa defense turns out to be vulnerable against big plays, and sandwiches disasters like the Michigan State loss between shutdown performances against Washington and Northwestern.
Iowa was always a dark horse playoff contender, but just mentioning the P word around a fanbase this fervent means the expectations will be set that high — especially with eight defensive starters returning, including All-American Jay Higgins; especially with sixth-year senior QB Cade McNamara at full health and running the offense of someone not named Brian Ferentz; especially with a schedule only featuring one team ranked at the start of the season (Ohio State); especially with Iowa's senior-heavy offensive line finally rounding into form, etc. etc. Instead, losses of every curve and color have pockmarked the season, and even in the best-case scenario of Sullivan sparkling in McNamara's stead, the questions will linger why the move to the more mobile QB hadn't been made while the season's highest aspirations were still on the table.
What makes tailback Kaleb Johnson so good?Â
Jacobi: Johnson has unlocked his potential this season in three ways:
A) Healthier legs. Johnson was dinged up for most of 2023, starting with a leg injury in fall camp, and eventually saw Leshon Williams take most of the workload at RB. Now that Johnson has his elite acceleration back, he can turn open holes into long touchdowns again.
B) A better offensive line. Iowa's front five suffered through some significant growing pains the last few seasons, a function of players being thrown on the field too early due to a horrific spate of injuries and departures ahead of them. While there's no surefire All-American in the group, senior C Logan Jones is rounding into form as the leader of the group, and junior RT Gennings Dunker has major NFL potential. Simply put, there's running lanes opening up that weren't there for Johnson before.
C) Trusting his coaches. One of the big knocks on Johnson as an underclassman was that he didn't "run behind his pads," trying instead to outrun foes despite his 6'1", 220-pound frame. Iowa RB coach Ladell Betts — a 10-year NFL veteran — has gotten Johnson into the right mindset of initiating contact, which has made his stiff-arm more devastating in the open field. That, and trusting where holes will open up in the power mid-zone rushing game, has helped new OC Tim Lester (and by extension, Johnson) turn Iowa's power rushing game into its biggest chunk-play threat.
What have been the early returns on new offensive coordinator Tim Lester?
Jacobi: Iowa's offense has still had fits and starts in Lester's first year as OC, but it's also been hard to evaluate the results with a starting quarterback as limited as McNamara. Even when Sullivan (mercifully) cycled in Saturday, his first three drives were three-and-outs. All were 4th-and-short situations where Ferentz opted to punt — and all resulted in Northwestern backed up to its 6-yard line or worse — but crucially, the Iowa offense didn't get unstuck until Lester started calling plays that let Sullivan showcase his mobility. Once that started with the last drive of the first half, Iowa ripped off four straight touchdown drives (and a punt return TD in the mix) to blow the game open.
In a way, then, how Lester prepares Sullivan for the Wisconsin defense will go a long way in evaluating both men for this season — and setting expectations for next year, when Iowa will have had a full offseason to implement an offense with an incumbent QB1.
Who are some under-the-radar players Wisconsin should watch out for come Saturday?
Jacobi: Iowa's QB situation has garnered the lion's share of eyeballs this season, but nearly as impactful has been the carousel at CB, where Iowa has struggled to find a replacement for Cooper DeJean. Sixth-year senior Jermari Harris has turned into one of the best lockdown corners in the Big Ten, but the drop-off has been so substantial to the trio of Deshaun Lee, TJ Hall and John Nestor that MSU barely needed to throw at Harris to ring up 468 yards of offense and zero punts, beating Iowa 32-20.
Lee will start, and has generally looked like the best of the three on balance, but he will need to find a greater level of consistency or Braedyn Locke will have little trouble picking on him to keep the Badgers' chains moving.
On the flip side of passing downs, Iowa's 3rd-down package often puts four defensive ends on the field, and that has created terrific playmaking opportunities for Max Llewellyn and Brian Allen on the edge. Neither is listed as a starter, but they've combined for 6.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL, 5 QB hurries, 4 PBUs and a safety this year — the two points coming for Llewellyn last week. Wisconsin's OL will have its hands full with athletic pass rushers on 3rd down, and how equipped the Badgers are for the challenge will be critical in determining who takes control of the game.
Prediction for the game?
Jacobi: This is an honestly tough call. Night game at Kinnick, where Iowa has been stronger this season, but rain likely adding a layer of chaos. Typically, the team that controls the LOS and gets downhill more often wins this matchup, and typically that's been Wisconsin. I'm not sure that's the case this year, though. Iowa's lines are productive and heavy on upperclassmen, and the DT duo of Yahya Black and Aaron Graves are awfully difficult to block with two hats with any consistency.
But just as Iowa's pass defense is uncharacteristically vulnerable this year, so is Wisconsin's rush defense, and on a rainy night I'd figure that favors the better rushing team more often than not. I'll predict 17-12 Iowa, but with a low level of confidence as I expect the weather to play a nasty cameo or two on Saturday and there's no telling what that'll do to the game in either direction.
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