The Road To Glory* starts now.
(*the Game Above Bowl in Detroit, maybe).
Michigan State needs to win two of its final three games in the 2024 campaign to guarantee bowl eligibility, and all three are gettable games.
And in this first of such games that are gettable for the Spartans is a matchup at Illinois on Saturday. Let's talk about the key factors for this contest in this week's 3-2-1 preview.
3 THINGS WE WANT TO SEE
SOMETHING, ANYTHING FROM THE RUN GAME
The last time we watched the Spartans, it was a catastrophe in the run game in a blowout loss to Indiana. We’re talking 37 yards on 24 carries against Indiana once you weed out all the sack numbers (the net rushing yards with the quarterback sacks included was minus-36). However, we are starting with the run game today because MIGHT THERE BE HOPE FOR THIS WEEKEND?
Indiana’s front is amongst the best in the nation at stopping the run, owning the nation’s second-best opponent yards per carry clip at 2.46 YPC. As a matter of fact, all of MSU’s Power Four opponents so far rank in the top-50 in that metric…until now.
Illinois has struggled at stopping the run, allowing 4.53 yards per carry to slot the Fighting Illini at 90th-best in the nation. They just let Minnesota – a team that isn’t even in the top-100 in yards per carry – go for 4.6 yards a pop in their last game before the bye week.
By and large, Michigan State's run game has struggled this season in every game against Power Four opponents except Iowa and Michigan, I would say. This is an Illini defensive unit where the Spartans can get their mojo back on, and they’ll also have to in order to take the pressure off of quarterback Aidan Chiles. An Aidan Chiles that we last saw leave the field with an injury. Now, he is practicing this week and expected to play on Saturday, but even lingering injury aside, it’s safe to say Chiles needs a little help from somewhere else on this offense.
SOMETHING, ANYTHING FROM THE PASS RUSH
Since it’s been so long since we’ve seen a pass rush, we might have forgotten what that even is. Quick refresher: IT’S WHEN SOMEONE GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE QUARTERBACK TO LET HIM KNOW THERE ARE EVEN PLAYING PEOPLE ON THE DEFENSIVE LINE.
OK, that is a bit dramatic, but Michigan State's pass rush has been essentially nonexistent over the past five games. That cannot continue.
We know the stat by now – MSU has not gotten a sack since the third quarter of the Boston College game on Sept. 21. That was so long ago that the sacked quarterback, Thomas Castellanos, is now in the transfer portal.
Even more brutal, MSU has just 12 pressures combined over the last five games. The pass rush has been atrocious, to put it bluntly.
Maybe defensive coordinator/linebackers coach Joe Rossi cranks up the blitzes a little more? It would be something he really hasn’t done a lot – MSU has not blitzed more than nine times in any one game against Power Four teams all season despite the four-man rushes never getting home.
Look, I don’t care if you have to fire guys in from the sidelines with a slingshot like a game of Angry Birds. Just do something. Please.
And, very similar to finding a run game, this battle is against a flawed unit. Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer has been fighting for his life back there. He is one of the 20 most-pressured quarterbacks in the nation on the season. He’s been sacked more than any other quarterback in the Big Ten. If there’s ever a time to find something – JUST ANYTHING – from your pass rush, it’s this game against Illinois.
SOMETHING, ANYTHING FROM THE OFFENSIVE LINE
From the Fighting Illini's pass protection issues to the Spartans' issues, let’s talk about it. We all know the story with the Michigan State offensive line – bruised, battered and young at the tackle position. And now, Chiles sits as the 15th most-pressured quarterback on the season.
This battle is going to be more difficult than the previous two mentioned above. Illinois doesn’t have the world’s greatest pass rush, but it is at least average-to-above-average. The Illini have 77 pressures in the last five games, including 23 against Michigan a few weeks ago. MSU’s pass rush got one pressure against that same unit for comparison’s sake.
This is the most “easier said than done” portion of this preview, but it has to happen to some degree. MSU can’t have Chiles – who very clearly has his own battles with ball security to deal with – having a life harder than it already is back there.
2 KEY STATS
41.8
That’s the yards per punt for Illinois punter Hugh Robertson, which is good for dead last in the Big Ten. That’s right. We’re talking punting, baby.
In a game that could very well be a one-possession game, the margins can easily be decided on field position and special teams execution. The Illini have a punter that is struggling to boot the ball, also having just three 50-plus yard punts in 29 tries. Meanwehile, MSU's Ryan Eckley has 17 50-plus yarders in the same amount of tries, and also holds the conference-leading average of 49.2 yards per punt.
Advantage, Spartans.
9
That’s how many interceptions the Illinois defense has snagged, good for fourth-most in the Big Ten. On the contrary, Altmyer has thrown just three picks.
As we mentioned above, the protection for Altmyer has not been great, however he has been secure with the football. Meanwhile, Chiles…well, you know the story there. He has thrown 11 interceptions this season (and has had fumbling issues as well). And that could very well be the story of this game, too.
Illinois comes into the game with a plus-four in the turnover margin, whereas MSU is sitting at a smooth minus-nine. That will have to be thrown out the window in order for our Spartans to win this one.
1 BEST BET
MSU +2.5, over/under 47.5
I so badly want to take the Spartans here. There are plenty of winnable matchups, but none of them are guaranteed to work. And, above anything else, I do worry about the Illinois pass rush against Michigan State's offensive line.
With that said, and I’m going to sound like a broken record here, we are going with the under. I like the Illinois pass rush versus MSU’s offensive line and I like MSU’s run defense against Illinois’ run game. We’re going back to the land down under.
Pick: Under 47.5
Record: 6-2 (two games losing streak on my end. Unacceptable)
