Wide open Big 12 style may be hampering draft evaluations
Baker Mayfield threw for more than 14,000 yards and had 150 total touchdowns in his college career. He won the Heisman Trophy. And he was the first overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, the first Big 12 player to go No. 1 since another Oklahoma QB, Sam Bradford, in 2010.
RELATED: Big 12 spring breakout players | Where Big 12 teams stand in 2019 cycle
But the Oklahoma quarterback was also the only Big 12 player selected in the first round and the conference has had by far fewer first-round draft selections than the other Power Five schools since 2010. The SEC leads with 91, ACC has 50, then the Big Ten and Pac-12 are tied at 42 and the Big 12 has 27.
Drafting defensive players from the Big 12 was especially weak this year as only seven were picked in the entire draft. That’s an average of one per round. Only Texas linebacker Malik Jefferson (third round) came off the board before the fourth round.
“You’re not going to like this and Big 12 coaches aren’t going to like me,” NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said. “I’m just going to say I’ve had a lot of conversations around the league and sometimes Big 12 football is really hard to watch, especially from a defensive perspective.
“On the one hand, I give them a ton of credit for being creative offensively. They throw the ball. Just to give you an example: Oklahoma-Oklahoma State is 38-38 at halftime. It’s on television, exciting football, but 38-38 at halftime?
"I give Texas some credit because Texas played against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and USC. Three of the top quarterbacks in the country and Texas held those three quarterbacks and those three (offenses) to their least output of the year.
“Texas plays a different scheme defensively. Single high, two high, a bunch of really sophisticated sub-packages like an NFL team would. All three teams struggled and here’s Oklahoma State who put up 38 in a half against Oklahoma, scored 10 in regulation against Texas because Texas played a different way than most Big 12 teams play and because Texas has athletes to execute the scheme.”
In Bedlam last season, the Sooners won 62-52. There were 1,446 yards of total offense. By season’s end, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State averaged about 45 points per game. Six conference teams averaged 32 or more. Every team in the Big 12 gave up more than 103 yards rushing per game.
Pass defense numbers were dreadful. Kansas State gave up more than 309 yards passing per game. Kansas was at 296.8. Every conference team allowed more than 227 passing yards per outing.
Cowboys quarterback Mason Rudolph, a third-round pick by Pittsburgh, threw for 4,553 yards and 35 touchdowns this past season. He nearly threw for more yards and touchdowns than Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, picked seventh overall by Buffalo, threw in his entire career (5,066 yards and 44 touchdowns).
“A lot of us get tired of watching these wide receivers run down the field unimpeded against safeties who are playing quarter coverage and get beaten by five yards,” Mayock said. “It’s hard to evaluate those guys and in turn when it’s hard to evaluate them, then sometimes they get knocked down further than they should.
“The last thing I want to say is it’s a college coach’s job to win football games. It’s not to develop NFL players. It’s to win football games, so I’m not taking a shot at their style of football I’m just saying it’s a different evaluation for the NFL people.”
But it’s not entirely clear it has really damaged recruiting to a great degree. Three of the top nine cornerbacks in last year’s recruiting class - Oklahoma’s Brendan Radley-Hiles and Texas’ Jalen Green and Anthony Cook - went to Big 12 schools. Two of the top six safeties signed with the Longhorns.
Oklahoma currently has the top-rated recruiting class nationally led by five-star receivers Theo Wease and Arjei Henderson. Four Big 12 receivers were picked in the NFL Draft but only one (Oklahoma State’s James Washington) before the fourth round in what was considered a weak position in the draft.
“Every team outside the Big 12 that recruits Texas is going to point out the draft numbers and the likelihood you’ll get drafted in those conferences more so than the Big 12,” Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell said. “The amazing part about it is that Big 12 fans don’t think Big 12 defenses are bad. That’s what I don’t understand, because it is bad. When a guy like Mike Mayock says it’s bad and it’s hard to evaluate - is Baker Mayfield putting up crazy numbers, is he a system quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, you really can’t tell.
“They’re getting talent on defense in recruiting, they’re just not coaching them to defend the offensive style that’s being played. The only game film they could truly evaluate Baker Mayfield was Ohio State and Texas. They play NFL-style defense. Everybody else that Oklahoma played during the regular season, you have to throw the tape out because there’s just no way to evaluate how he’s doing because you never see anything like that in the NFL.
“It hurts recruiting for sure and it’s hard to evaluate Big 12 players because of it.”
Oklahoma also put up huge numbers in the College Football Playoff against Georgia - 48 points, 531 yards of total offense - but the Sooners lost by six in double overtime. That could be a major selling point to recruits but each Saturday in the Big 12, offenses score at will and defenses usually have no answers.
For Mayock and for Farrell, it’s tough to evaluate because of it.
“The offensive firepower is so far ahead of the defenses in the Big 12 that there’s just no way to catch up,” Farrell said. “It’s a compliment to Big 12 offense but it’s also a shot at Big 12 defenses.”