Ahead of another loaded weekend of college and NFL games, Adam Friedman takes a look at where some of the biggest names in the spotlight this weekend were ranked as high school recruits and whether or not their ranking was a Hit or a Miss.
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Oklahoma vs. Tennessee: Sooners QB Jackson Arnold
Oklahoma hosts Tennessee this weekend in what will be the first big test of the Jackson Arnold era. The former five-star out of Texas considered Notre Dame, Ole Miss, TCU and others before committing to Oklahoma in January following his junior season. Arnold’s commitment was the first major recruiting win for Brent Venables as head coach of the Sooners.
Jeff Lebby, who was the offensive coordinator for Oklahoma, played a huge role in getting Arnold to Norman as well. Through three games this season, Arnold has thrown for 484 yards and has seven passing touchdowns with only two interceptions.
According to PFF, Arnold has the fifth-best adjusted completion percentage in the SEC. It’s still too early to issue a verdict on whether or not Arnold has lived up to his ranking but he has impressed so far.
Verdict: Incomplete
NC State vs. Clemson: Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey
N.C. State will be without starting quarterback Grayson McCall this week when the Wolfpack square off with Clemson so that means true freshman CJ Bailey will get the first start of his college career. The South Florida native piled up a ridiculous number of wins and three state championships while quarterbacking powerhouse Chaminade Madonna and earned a four-star rating before the end of the 2024 rankings cycle.
Bailey committed to N.C. State in March of his junior year but nearly flipped to Miami before National Signing Day.
Verdict: Incomplete
New Orleans vs. Philadelphia: Saints RB Alvin Kamara
Kamara scored four touchdowns on Sunday as the New Orleans Saints offense scored more than 40 points for the second game in a row. Kamara has been one of the best running backs in the NFL since he was picked in the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft.
Originally a top 50 prospect in the 2013 class, Kamara signed with Alabama but transferred to a junior college a year later. He was rated as a five-star junior college prospect in the 2015 class and decided to sign with Tennessee instead of Georgia. In college, Kamara didn’t necessarily make the impact you’d expect from a five-star and his NFL Draft position didn’t reflect his rating either.
However, during his time in the NFL, Kamara has definitely lived up to the billing.
Verdict: Hit
USC vs. Michigan: Trojans QB Miller Moss
Moss was part of USC’s 2021 recruiting class that was full of high-end potential. For the most part, the players in that class either didn’t pan out or have since transferred elsewhere. If you count interim head coach Donte Williams, Lincoln Riley is the third head coach Moss has played for at USC and, truthfully, it never looked like he would end up the starter for the Trojans.
Moss and Jaxson Dart, the current starter for Ole Miss, both signed with USC’s 2021 recruiting class, and Caleb Williams transferred to USC after the 2022 season, then five-star Malachi Nelson signed with USC in the 2023 class.
With Dart and Nelson transferring elsewhere and Williams off to the NFL, the starting role fell into Moss’s lap and he isn’t wasting the opportunity. He lit the world on fire with a six-touchdown performance in USC’s bowl game last season and this year he’s off to a great start, completing 71.6-percent of his passes with zero turnovers, two touchdown passes, and 600 passing yards.
Moss has a tall task ahead of him on Saturday playing at Michigan at 3:30pm EDT on CBS.
Verdict: Miss
Dallas vs. Baltimore: Cowboys LB Micah Parsons
Parsons was a no-brainer five-star in the 2018 class and a case could be made that he was ranked too low at No. 6 in the Rivals250. His recruitment was fairly dramatic. The Pennsylvania native committed to Penn State early in the recruiting process but decommitted in April of his junior season. It looked like Parsons would end up signing with Ohio State, due in large part to his relationship with defensive line coach Larry Johnson, but Penn State ultimately won him back.
Parsons was an immediate impact player for the Nittany Lions, where he turned into the first freshman in Penn State history to lead the team in tackles. He was a Freshman All-American and after his standout sophomore season he was a Consensus All-American.
The Dallas Cowboys picked Parsons with the 12th pick in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft and he was named the AP Defensive Rookie of the Year the following season. Parsons has also been named to the AP All-Pro Team twice.
Verdict: Hit
