Tuesdays with Gorney: Texas Tech back to square one with Wells gone
Former Florida athletics director Jeremy Foley and many others in the position of hiring and firing coaches have swore by this axiom: "If something needs to be done, do it today."
It makes sense. Don’t hold off. Pull the ripcord and move on. That’s what Texas Tech did Monday when it fired coach Matt Wells, who wasn’t even through his third season and had the Red Raiders at 5-3 heading into a brutal part of the schedule.
Right or wrong, we won’t know if it was the correct call for some time. Whoever is hired next, there is a lot to rebuild and there’s no guarantee of success. Making predictions on coaching wins and losses is a fickle exercise.
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When Texas Tech AD Kirby Hocutt hired Wells he said “quickly in the interview process” it became clear that Wells was the “perfect fit” to lead the Red Raiders and that Wells was the right coach to take Texas Tech “to an elite level.”
Thirty games later, Wells is gone.
There is certainly reasons for frustration. Wells went 4-8 his first season, 4-6 in the COVID 2020 season and is sitting at 5-3 now after a collapse to Kansas State this past weekend. I’m not making excuses for Wells, and after talking to people who cover the program the sense was that it was just never an outstanding or inspired hire and it was not a great fit.
However, let’s also set expectations clearly here.
The Red Raiders haven’t had a winning season since 2015. They’ve had one double-digit win season since 1976. Recreating the magic of Mike Leach in Lubbock is maybe like putting the toothpaste back in the tube. It may be harder than fans want to think.
Kliff Kingsbury could not even find success in Lubbock - and had his own frustrating issues to grapple with that led to some losses - as he finished with four losing seasons in six, finished 19-35 in conference and never had Texas Tech in the hunt for a Big 12 title. Not even close. He’s now the coach of the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in the NFL. Two and two might not equal four there, but it is interesting.
From a recruiting perspective, Texas and Oklahoma get five-stars almost every recruiting cycle. The Red Raiders have signed one in Rivals history dating back to 2002 (Robert Johnson in 2004). Texas Tech had two four-stars in 2021, one in 2019, two in 2018, one in 2017, two in 2016, three in 2015 and then one each in its 2014 and 2013 recruiting classes. That’s not the formula to consistently winning seasons.
In each of Wells’ three recruiting classes (and it might not be fair to include the first one, except it’s not much different than the two others), Texas Tech finished toward the back end of the Big 12 team rankings.
After a promising 2020 class that finished No. 47 nationally - sandwiched in between Ole Miss and Indiana which have both had success recently - the Red Raiders fell back to No. 87 in the 2021 group.
I’m not making excuses for Wells because he was basically following the same script as other Texas Tech coaches in recent memory - pull an upset here or there, lose some games you should have won, find it tough to recruit to Lubbock and really hope for some transfers or surprise recruits who could make an impact.
When Leach had the Red Raiders 11-2 in 2008 the recruits of today were around kindergarten age. The glory of those days could be rekindled but prospects never experienced that for themselves in Lubbock, just like recruits at USC don’t really know what Reggie Bush meant to that program or what Peyton Manning meant to Tennessee or what Tommie Frazier meant to Nebraska.
Recruiting to Lubbock is not easy. It’s remote. It has no recruiting territory within hours of campus. The state of Texas is saturated with talent but also with teams from the Big 12 or the SEC or national powers coming in for the best players. Almost all of those campuses are closer to home for the top kids.
To win in recruiting battles, there needs to be a little bit of luck and a truckload of relationship-building and even more luck along the way. That takes time and dedication and the long view, not 30 games and if it’s not working out look for the next stiff to come in.
But Stillwater, Okla., is hardly the center of football talent in the country. Or even Norman. Or Manhattan, Kan. Or Ames, Iowa. Or Iowa City. And those teams get it done, figure it out, win games. Win lots of games. Have Heisman quarterbacks and play for conference titles and everything else.
It’s very possible to win at Texas Tech, especially in the brave new world of transfer portal and even NIL (what company in Lubbock wouldn’t pony up some big money once players are on campus?) to get it done. Winning is not out to pasture in Lubbock.
But to win there, the needle has to be threaded just right. And luck has to be on the Red Raiders’ side. It hasn’t been lately but sometimes you have to make your own luck and that starts by hiring the right coach - Jeff Traylor certainly makes sense as a winner at UTSA and an in-state guy with tremendous high school coaching ties.
Texas Tech is a tough job, maybe one of the toughest in Power Five football, but not impossible to win, and win big. Time is needed, though, luck is needed and before the Red Raiders win games on the field they will need to win lots of recruiting battles off it.