Top QB for 2018 NFL Draft could come outside Power Five

RELATED: Mike Farrell's Three-point stance

As the 2017 NFL Draft wrapped up last month, one NFL executive told ESPN’s Adam Schefter to “put it in the books” that Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen would be the No. 1 pick in 2018.

Yes, Allen. And, yes, Wyoming’s quarterback.

Over USC quarterback Sam Darnold, who incredibly led the Trojans to their first Rose Bowl victory in eight years and who threw for 31 touchdowns after taking over for Max Browne early in the season? He could be the Heisman frontrunner heading into this year.

Over former five-star quarterback Josh Rosen, who seems to fit the NFL game perfectly despite a slow start to his UCLA career which saw him miss six starts last season with a shoulder injury?

Over Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, who made video-game caliber moves last season at Louisville en route to 30 passing touchdowns and 21 rushing scores, basically doing whatever he wanted on the football field?

Over Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, who threw for more than 4,000 yards last season with 28 touchdowns and only four picks and who’s poised for another monster season in Stillwater?

There is no question the quarterback class for the 2018 NFL Draft is loaded, so top heavy with outstanding prospects that it makes the 2017 group look average.

Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell is wary of the Allen prediction this early. Not because Allen is at Wyoming, but because this time heading into last season Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Miami’s Brad Kaaya were mentioned among the top picks. Watson was selected 12th while Kaaya went in round 6 at No. 215.

Not playing at a Power Five program could be to Allen’s advantage. North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz had a much better rookie season than Cal’s Jared Goff. And Allen’s coach at Wyoming, Craig Bohl, was Wentz’s coach with the Bison.

It could be playing a major factor in the thinking of NFL brass.

“They’d rather have a guy from the Power Five, but based on the early returns from Carson Wentz vs. Jared Goff, I don’t think it matters as much,” Farrell said.

“You have guys in the NFL from smaller schools that have had success – Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo – so the whole Power Five thing is preferable but they’re not going to pick a guy based only on level of competition.”

Schefter’s reporting is not in doubt, but it was also only one NFL executive who shared that information. That opinion could mean nothing to the rest of the league. It could be disinformation. Who knows.

Allen is a talented quarterback, but he was not a high school phenom and had to mature physically at junior college before heading to Wyoming. Last season, he threw for 3,203 yards with 28 touchdowns and 15 picks and also ran for seven scores, but those are hardly stats to go bonkers over. A Mountain West schedule just doesn’t hold water to the Pac-12 or ACC.

On the other hand, Darnold was stellar at USC and after a 1-3 start, the Trojans did not lose again starting from Oct. 1. The former San Clemente, Calif., four-star quarterback was a big reason why.

Rosen cannot be discounted, either.

“Even if Josh Rosen doesn’t have a good junior year, his intangibles are so off the charts that it’s going to be impossible for the NFL to not take him ahead of the other two,” said Edward Lewis of BruinSportsReport.com. “His arm strength, his pocket presence, his football IQ, all of it is elite.

“In a league that saw far inferior quarterbacks like Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, even DeShaun Watson get drafted in the top 12, Rosen should have no problem convincing an NFL team even with a down year that he’s deserving of the top pick. That being said, there’s no expectation that Rosen will have a bad season. Yes, UCLA’s offensive line is still wafer thin, but UCLA’s new pro-style offense should give him enough tape to show the NFL he’s worthy regardless of how his final numbers compare to Darnold’s or Allen’s.”

These early projections are just that – sometimes way too premature. Let’s put it another way: Nobody, not a single soul, had Trubisky so high this time last year and he ended up as the second overall pick to the Chicago Bears. How could anyone? Trubisky had not even started for North Carolina yet.

If these too-early mock drafts are to be trusted, the Allen pick could be questionable. Foxsports.com, BleacherReport.com, WalterFootball.com and CBSSports.com all have Darnold going No. 1.

“Darnold is the guy everybody is in love with,” Farrell said. “But this time last year Brad Kaaya was the guy and the year before that it was Christian Hackenberg. There is a whole lot of football to be played.

“Rosen and Darnold are the two kids with a lot of talent that everybody is looking at, the Wyoming kid certainly has the talent and then Lamar Jackson is a wild card. Somebody could build an offense around him in the NFL for sure. There is a lot of talent. You always look at those early draft projections and wonder if that’s how it’s going to work out.”