Three-Point Stance: Who's hot and who's not in 2018 recruiting

Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell’s thought-provoking Three-Point Stance is here with analysis on the 10 hottest teams in recruiting right now, five teams that are not so hot and an update on the five first-rounders from last year I said could flop.

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The spring evaluation period has just begun for most teams, but many already have double digit 2018 commitments and are off to very hot starts. Here’s my top 10 - placing an order on these was not easy…

1. Miami – No program has been hotter than the ‘Canes from start to now for the 2018 class. This isn’t like the starts under Al Golden, as Miami is reeling in stud after stud that are coveted by SEC and ACC teams. Five-star Lorenzo Lingard leads the way, followed by fellow running back Camron Davis and wide receiver Mark Pope. Miami has 18 commitments, and 13 of them have rankings of four-stars or higher.

2. Ohio State – The Buckeyes have only eight commitments, but they boast a five-star from Georgia, a five -star from Florida (via Maryland) and stars from Ohio, California, Oklahoma and Tennessee. The latest commitment, defensive end Brenton Cox from Georgia, is another example of Urban Meyer’s national recruiting.

3. Clemson – Like Ohio State, Clemson has only eight commitments, but the Tigers also have two five-stars and have taken prospects from out of state as well. Georgia's Trevor Lawrence is the biggest catch, but in-state defensive end Xavier Thomas, who now plays in Florida, could be equally important since he was supposed to be a Gamecocks lean.

4. Nebraska – The Huskers could be No. 2 on this list since they aren’t considered a traditional recruiting power and don’t have a great home territory. The Calibraska movement has been amazing, and recent additions of Manuel Allen and Chase Williams helps the offense while Brendan Radley-Hiles could be an Earl Thomas/Jamal Adams kind of impact player.

5. LSU - The Tigers were expected to recruit well under Ed Orgeron, and I like their out-of-state efforts landing top prospects from Texas, Florida and now Georgia in addition to some in-state talent. Adam Anderson will have to live up to Arden Key comparisons, but he has the potential.

6. Texas – Is this high for a team with only six commitments? It could be, but stealing four-star recruits from Florida State and Oklahoma and adding two four-star quarterbacks in less than 10 days has me impressed. Adding big-bodied DE Ron Tatum from Oklahoma doesn’t hurt.

7. Notre Dame – There hasn’t been a ton of activity recently for Notre Dame, but the start is pretty astonishing considering last season’s 4-8 record. They have pulled four-stars from Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Illinois and Oregon so far. That’s very good.

8. Penn State – The Nittany Lions would be higher on this list without the decommitment from Micah Parsons, but it’s still a very impressive class with two key recent offensive line additions in Nana Asiedu and Antwan Reed.

9. Washington – With eight commitments, including six four-stars, Washington is putting together a very nice class and hitting California hard. They are also going into Oregon and taking key players from the Ducks. That never hurts.

10. Florida State – James Cook is the headliner for the ‘Noles, and of course he was expected to commit, but landing Asante Samuel was a huge in-state get as well, and Robert Cooper is a terrific pull from Georgia. They have the fewest four-stars of anyone on this list, but they also have some three-stars with a lot of potential.

On the flip side, whether it’s because of recent decommitments, their home state being raided or just a lack of buzz, there are some teams out there that are freezing cold on the recruiting trail for 2018. Here are my top five…

1. Ole Miss – With zero commitments for 2018 it’s clear that the NCAA investigation destroyed all recruiting momentum, and waiting for the sanctions just makes it harder to recruit.

2. Georgia – The Dawgs have only two commitments for the 2018 class, but that’s not really the problem. The problem is that 11 of the top 20 prospects in the state of Georgia have committed and none have picked Kirby Smart’s program.

3. Oklahoma – What the heck happened? OK, I know two of the Sooners' decommitments were 2019 guys and I said I was sticking to 2018, but losing two four-stars in 2019 and having your quarterback flip to Texas makes for a cold run.

4. Oregon – One commitment for new head coach Willie Taggart and it’s a legacy? Not a great start.

5. Missouri – It’s not all bad for the Tigers, as they have a lot of in-state momentum for the best group of home-grown players in a while. But with only one high school commitment, they are off to a slow start.

Last year I picked five players projected to go in round one of the 2016 NFL Draft who I thought would be flops. Of the five, four were actually drafted in round one, while the last went in round two. Here are the results..

1. DB Vernon Hargreaves III – Hargreaves was drafted No. 11 overall by Tampa Bay, and while Bucs and Gators fans saw him play quite a bit, he didn’t play that well. He led the league in targets, receptions given up and yardage given up and tied for sixth with six touchdowns scored against. That’s not just among rookies but every corner in the league. No other cornerback allowed more than 1,000 yards receiving. The playing time was impressive, but the play was not.

2. OT Ronnie Stanley – Wrong on this one so far. I thought Stanley, who was drafted No. 6 by the Baltimore Ravens and started 12 games, was the best rookie in the AFC North. Based on year one, he could be a star.

3. LB Leonard Floyd – Floyd was drafted No. 9 overall by the Chicago Bears and registered seven sacks as a rookie, impressive stuff. I felt he would be swallowed up a bit by massive tackles in the NFL, but he could be on his way to becoming the next Vic Beasley.

4. DT Robert Nkemdiche – Nkemdiche was drafted No. 29 by Arizona and was unimpressive with zero impact his rookie year, drawing criticism from head coach Bruce Arians for a lack of maturity. He could be out of the league in a couple of years.

5. RB Derrick Henry – Henry didn’t make it to round one and was drafted by the Tennessee Titans in round two (pick No. 45 overall). Working behind DeMarco Murray, who had a great season, Henry was impressive with 490 yards rushing and five touchdowns. I keep second guessing him and he keeps delivering.