Three-Point Stance: Vanilla programs, competitive rivalries, Cincinnati
Rivals National Columnist Mike Farrell is here with a look at vanilla Power Five programs, an amazing stat about the Tennessee-Vanderbilt rivalry and speculation about where the Cincinnati Bearcats would rank in the each Power Five conference.
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1. THE MOST VANILLA PROGRAMS IN THE POWER FIVE
Last week I focused on the two weakest programs in each Power Five conference over the last 10 years or so. Today, let's look at the vanilla programs. The programs that never truly disappoint, but also rarely break through.
Being a fan of these teams isn’t exciting overall.
Big Ten — Obviously, programs like Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State have had too much overall success in the last decade to be described as vanilla. Northwestern has been way too up and down while Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, Rutgers and Maryland have been too far down too often. The answer is Iowa. The Hawkeyes have posted the following win totals since 2010: 8, 7, 4, 8, 7, 12, 8, 8, 9, 10 and 6 (COVID shortened). That’s one bad season, one really good season and the rest within 7-10 wins. Impressively vanilla.
SEC — This is a bit harder than any other conference because it’s been dominated by the big names for the most part. Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Florida have been too good overall and we all know how up and down programs like Arkansas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt have been. The answer? Missouri. Since the Tigers entered the SEC in 2012 they have posted the following win totals: 5, 12, 11, 5, 4, 7, 8, 6 and 5 (COVID season). The 12 and 11 were SEC East title years and 4-8 was down but, overall, Missouri has been pretty consistently vanilla. If you’re vanilla in the SEC, you’re Mizzou.
ACC — Clemson has separated itself from the pack. Florida State started the decade contending for championships and then finished it as a massive disappointment, so the Seminoles are clearly out. Most other programs have been very up and down except for one. Surprisingly, for those of us who were around for their reign of dominance, the Miami Hurricanes have had the most vanilla decade in the ACC. The 'Canes have the following win totals since 2010: 7, 6, 7, 9, 6, 8, 9, 10, 7, 6 and 8. Boston College was a thought but its 2-10 season in 2012 killed that. Virginia Tech was a candidate but started off the decade with 32 wins in the first three seasons. The Miami Hurricanes are vanilla.
Pac-12 — As average as USC has been relative to its standards, the Trojans still had four double-digit winning seasons in the decade. Utah has had three double-digit win seasons while Oregon has the most with five. Washington had three, so the Huskies are out as well. This is going to come down to a program that you think might be a massive underachiever but has been steady and vanilla all decade: Arizona State. Aside from its 2-2 season in 2020 due to COVID-19, the Sun Devils haven't had a season in the last decade with fewer than five wins. Conversely, they’ve had two seasons with 10 wins and the rest has all been massively average.
Big 12 — Oklahoma and Kansas are out for obviously different reasons but somewhere in-between is our vanilla program. This is actually quite easy because of winning seasons from Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State and, yes, even Texas. It comes down to Kansas State and West Virginia to me and, while it's very close, the Wildcats get the edge.
2. THE MOST COMPETITIVE RIVALRY OVER THE LAST DECADE
My Twitter pal @cfbhome came up with an amazing stat about competitive rivalries that blew my mind.
First off, when most college football fans think of rivalries, they think of the big ones: Ohio State-Michigan, Alabama-Auburn, Texas-Oklahoma. But many of those series are remarkably one-sided over the last 10 years, so it wouldn't be very accurate to label those rivalries as competitive.
Tennessee and Vanderbilt is a competitive rivalry. What? How? The Vols and Commodores have split the last 10 meetings and have even scored the same number of points, 273, in those games. Yet, for as even as the series looks over the last decades, the individual games themselves have been pretty lopsided. Seven of the 10 games have been decided by two touchdowns or more. Blowouts in this rivalry make sense but both ways? That’s how far Tennessee football has fallen. The Vols have lost to Vandy 41-18, 42-24 and 38-13 over this stretch. They lost three-straight from 2016-18 when Vanderbilt didn’t have a winning season.
This is a rivalry that Tennessee owns 77-33-5 overall but it has been dead-even over the last decade. And to add insult to injury, Vanderbilt has been to five bowl games in the last 10 seasons and the Vols have been to four. Before the last decade, Vanderbilt beat Tennessee a total of three times over 35 seasons. My how things have changed.
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3. WHERE CINCINNATI WOULD RANK IN EACH POWER FIVE CONFERENCE
The best Group of Five team last year in my mind was Cincinnati which gave a talented Georgia team all it could handle in the Peach Bowl. But where would the Bearcats stand heading into this season in the Power Five power rankings? With the return of Desmond Ridder and many talented players, you might be surprised where I’d put them.
Big Ten: No. 2 — Ohio State is the best team in the Big Ten, but Cincinnati would beat everyone else based on last year. Michigan and Penn State weren’t good last year while Indiana and Northwestern were surprises. I feel Cincinnati was better. The Big Ten overall wasn’t pretty last season and while the Bearcats would get drubbed by Ohio State this season, I don’t see another team that’s better on paper.
SEC: No. 7 — Cincinnati almost beat Georgia in the Peach Bowl, but it's worth pointing out that the Bulldogs had several key opt outs in that game and they were arguably the fourth-best team in the SEC. This year the SEC is more balanced and I can see Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida, LSU and Ole Miss beating them. You may think I’m an SEC homer for saying so but an SEC schedule would hammer the Bearcats.
ACC: No. 3 — Notre Dame is out of the ACC after a one-year inclusion so Cincinnati would beat everyone aside from Clemson and North Carolina.
Pac-12: No. 1 — First? With all that talent at USC and Oregon and the potential of Washington and Arizona State? Yep. The Bearcats would win the Pac-12.
Big 12: No. 2 — Oklahoma is going to be great and the rest are below the Bearcats, including Matt Campbell’s Iowa State team and Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns.