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football Edit

Three-point stance: Team ranking analysis

Today’s edition discusses the team recruiting rankings as we head down the stretch and which team has a ridiculous home state advantage.

Jim Harbaugh (left) and Urban Meyer have their teams set up for big recruiting hauls in 2016.
Jim Harbaugh (left) and Urban Meyer have their teams set up for big recruiting hauls in 2016.
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Midwestern mojo in team rankings


Looking at the current team rankings, at least at the top, a few things stand out to me. First, this is the best year I can remember for the three Big Ten powers and Notre Dame, with all four in the top 10 with a chance for top 15 finishes by Ohio State (likely top 5), Notre Dame and Michigan (likely top 10 or top 15) and Michigan State (likely top 15). That’s good for the balance of power in college football.

And speaking of balance of power, seeing Baylor and TCU in the top 20 still shocks the eyeballs a bit with both well ahead of Oklahoma and Texas. That shows you that winning is the key ingredient to recruiting -– if you win, they will come. The SEC still has nine teams in the top 20 overall, so nothing changes much there while the Pac-12 has one team, UCLA, in the top 15 –- not a great sign.

Big potential movers outside the top 10 include Alabama (of course), Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, USC, Oklahoma and especially Texas, which stands outside the top 40 but has very few commitments. The biggest surprise aside from Texas way down the list to me? Iowa. With 24 commitments already and still pushing near being outside the top 40, I thought they’d get a better bump from their amazing season. I know they don’t have a great home recruiting territory, but the success of other Midwestern teams in recruiting this year is hurting them badly.

The biggest question right now is, can Alabama push to No. 1 or will someone edge them out like the Trojans did last year?

Short of expectations

James Franklin has seen his team's recruiting ranking tumble in 2016.
James Franklin has seen his team's recruiting ranking tumble in 2016. (Getty Images)

Other disappointments right now in the team rankings? How about Penn State, which is now outside the top 25 after being up near the top five for a while at the start of the recruiting cycle. Momentum has stalled for the Nittany Lions in a big way as now they will try to steal some recruits from some of the lower Big Ten programs and from Temple.

Miami near the end of the top 25 after being No. 1 early in the cycle, is disappointing a bit, especially with a big hire in Mark Richt. I thought they’d be in better position despite the transition and Richt would give them more of a boost. Oklahoma State pushing to stay just inside the top 50 is also disappointing after a very good year and Maryland and #TheMovement has taken hit after hit after a pretty solid start. In fact, while the rich get richer in the Big Ten East, the middle to bottom of the division has a long way to go to close the gap. Tennessee sitting near the bottom of the Top 20 is a bit down for the Vols as well after back-to-back Top 5 finishes.

Home state advantage

LSU tends to keep a high percentage of its top players in state.
LSU tends to keep a high percentage of its top players in state. (Getty Images)

And could it be more clear which program has the biggest home state advantage in the country? LSU is pushing for the top spot in the recruiting rankings despite the whole Les Miles debacle and the fact that many feel he has to beat Saban and Alabama AND win the SEC West to keep his job next year. Twelve of the top 20 prospects in the state of Louisiana clearly aren’t worried and a couple more could still jump on board before Signing Day. And all this with arguably their best recruiter, Frank Wilson, leaving to take the head coaching job at UTSA recently.

When you think of all the Power Five programs across the country in talent-rich states that have the state to themselves, LSU immediately jumps to the front of the list with Ohio State second for home-state advantage. It’s one of the reasons LSU had the most active NFL players heading into this past season and it’s also the reason why when the Tigers lose a big-time in-state guy, like Landon Collins or Cameron Robinson, people freak out.

Because of this, recruiting alone will not be able to save Miles' job, because the perception is it is easy to get talent to Baton Rouge. Ohio has a lot of talent, but it isn’t as deep or athletic as Louisiana, which is the reason why it was key for Urban Meyer to hit home runs in the Southeast, Texas and elsewhere.

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