Three-Point Stance: Rankings, Jones' big hire, prediction time

Here’s today’s edition of the Three-Point stance as National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell talks about the rankings meetings ahead, the hire of Bob Shoop at Tennessee and his prediction for the national title game.

1. Rankings intrigue

There is no rest for the weary as the Rivals team of recruiting analysts disperses from San Antonio to their respective home bases after more than two weeks on the road.

With regional all-star games, additional senior film and playoff games and the Under Armour All-America Game and U.S. Army All-American Bowl used as final evaluation tools, the final rankings meetings that start on Tuesday should be very interesting for this 2016 class.

There are so many questions to be answered.

Who earns a fifth star, who loses their fifth star, where do the quarterbacks land in the rankings, who is the top running back in the country, the top wide receiver and so on?

The final rankings are the last piece of the puzzle on the full body of work for each prospect. Why do I say that? Because gauging one week of practice and a big game versus years of film and in person evaluations is the most difficult task we face.

It’s much easier to shuffle the position rankings when you see top wide receivers like Nate Craig-Myers, N’Keal Harry, DeKaylin Metcalf and Tyler Vaughns in a short span against the best corners in the country, but it’s much harder to determine whether a quarterback like Malik Henry has earned back his fifth star based on one week and a really good game.

So “body of work” is the key element here and the phrase to remember. We currently have 23 five-stars and, with 2016 a bit of a down year compared to 2015 and some other years, I was fully prepared to have the least five-stars in Rivals history (25 in 2003 and 2004 is the current low), but I don’t think that will be the case now.

There were some current five-stars that will be questioned greatly and some new candidates that will be a part of a heated debate. Keep in mind that Rivals generally has fewer five-stars than our competition, so we are intensely critical when it comes to handing out that honor, especially in a final ranking where it will stick forever.

I’ve been doing this for a very long time and this week’s meeting, especially with the Under Armour Game and Army Bowl weeks being separate for the first time ever allowing for more eyeballs on more prospects, could be the most interesting I’ve been a part of.

2. Tennessee's home run hire

Tennessee fans are excited - and they should be - as head coach Butch Jones lured defensive coordinator Bob Shoop away from Penn State. Shoop is a step up as a recruiter from former defensive coordinator John Jancek and he has done an excellent job at Penn State and previously at Vanderbilt, where he helped the Commodores recruit Tennessee as well as Georgia and other parts of the Southeast effectively.

But is he the key piece to taking over the SEC East? Despite an average year (compared to previous years) in recruiting for the Vols in 2016, recruiting has not been the problem. The problem has been finishing games, especially this year, and time will tell if Shoop can fix that problem.

I’ve followed Shoop’s career since he was an up-and-coming assistant at Boston College up here in New England back in the late 1990's, so his career as a coach and recruiter has spanned the same cycle as mine.

And I can tell you that this is a loss for Penn State and James Franklin as it was Franklin who gave Shoop his big shot, taking a chance on him as his defensive coordinator at Vanderbilt after Shoop held the same title at William & Mary.

So for Shoop to jump ship, I have to believe two things: 1) he believes he can win not only an SEC East title but also a national title at Tennessee with the parts in place and 2) Penn State is still recovering from the loss of depth and scholarships from the NCAA slap down a few years back and is farther from such lofty goals.

Now, these are only guesses on my part as I have no idea what the true motivation for Shoop to jump ship was, but he must see something very special in the Vols to break away from Franklin. And that’s likely good news for Tennessee fans.

3. The College Football Playoff title winner is...

OK, last prediction time of the college football season. Remember, whatever I say try to do the opposite because I’m always wrong. My pick for the winner of the national title game is….I’m not sure.

I was perhaps one of the first national writers to jump Clemson’s title chance bandwagon this season when I wrote this column in early October when I compared them to the 2012 Florida State Seminoles, a year before the ‘Noles won it all.

While I didn’t outright predict Clemson to win it all back then, I did say there was something about the talent on the roster than made me feel that they could.

Now that they’ve navigated numerous obstacles, the safe bet would be to say they lose tonight against Alabama and regroup and win it next season with more overall experience and DeShaun Watson a year older. But I think Watson is the x-factor in this game, the guy who can’t be accounted for even with Alabama’s amazing front seven.

If Clemson can stop the short passing game and the run against ‘Bama, a huge task especially if Shaq Lawson can’t play, then Alabama will be prone to mistakes. And if they can get a lead, Alabama isn’t built for furious comebacks.

The key will be Watson, the most dangerous player in college football because of his smart decision-making, ability to keep the play alive and his constant pass-run threat that drives linebackers and defensive backs crazy. Alabama is the favorite in the game and I did say I wasn’t going to pick against them ever again, didn’t I? I promised myself that as long as Nick Saban was coaching the Tide in a big game, I wouldn’t pick against them anymore after looking foolish a couple of times earlier this year.

So I’m keeping that promise to myself even with a sneaking suspicion that Watson pulls this out. Final answer – Alabama wins it all again.