Three-Point Stance: One-loss contenders, USC, star freshmen

Rivals national columnist Mike Farrell is here with a look at the playoff chances of some big one-loss teams, the pros and cons of the USC job, and some impact true freshmen so far.

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Tuesday I gave you the playoff chances of the 2-0 teams in the AP Top 25 and some of the percentages were ugly. Today I’ll give you my playoff percentages of the big-time programs that have already had one stumble and, believe it or not, some have a better shot than their undefeated counterparts. They do say it’s better to lose early, right?

Clemson — 50% — If Clemson can run the table and beat a highly ranked team in the ACC championship the Tigers could easily still get in. And the schedule is not hard. The question is — do the Tigers have the offense?

Ohio State — 70% — Let’s face it, someone will have to run the table in the Big Ten to get in over a one-loss Ohio State team. Will the Buckeyes go undefeated from here on out? Not sure but they get every boost possible when it comes to the playoff. Just ask Penn State.

Iowa State — 5% — The Cyclones would have to run the table and beat Oklahoma twice and that’s not happening.

Wisconsin — 10% — The Badgers could win the West and if they somehow beat a one-loss team from the East maybe they slide in. But it’s doubtful.

North Carolina — 5% — One loss is a killer for the Tar Heels who don’t have the schedule to recover unless a lot of unlikely things happen. Clemson lost to a top-five team, North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech. There’s a big difference.

Miami — 0% — The Hurricanes don’t have the talent and even if they ran the table the performance against Alabama would kill all chances. Texas A&M knows this.

Texas — 10% — The brand name gets them as high as 10% and the Longhorns would need to run the table and even then it would be hard. Honestly, they will be lucky to win eight games so I’m probably way high here.

USC — 0% — The Trojans can eliminate Pac-12 teams but they can’t make it themselves. A loss to Stanford in such a fashion is too much to overcome.

LSU — 10% — The Tigers' only saving grace is that UCLA is proving to be a very good team and it will look like an OK loss. But this team can’t beat Alabama. No way.

The USC job is open and many consider it to be one of the premiere jobs in all of college football. And while I agree there are still some drawbacks. Here are the pros and cons in my book.

PROS

— Recruiting. Few schools have a bigger recruiting advantage than USC with the entire state of California at its disposal as well as Arizona and Nevada producing more talent. Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA and others can try to compete but with a good recruiting coach this roster would be hard to beat.

— Name, Image, Likeness. There are two theories to NIL. One is that smaller markets where the teams are like their city or state NFL team are better off. The other is that massive cities where the most exposure lies is best. So far it’s been the big cities and Los Angeles offers so many NIL opportunities to sell in recruiting.

— Tradition. The Pete Carroll days are long ago but not far enough in the rear-view mirror to make a difference. Players still hear about Reggie Bush and Matt Leinhart and the glory days. They can look to NFL rosters for players like JuJu Smith and Robert Woods. This won’t last much longer but can still be taken advantage of now.

— Big Fish, Small Pond. The Pac-12 is USC and everyone else when it comes to brand name. Oregon has done a nice job of becoming very relevant under Chip Kelly and now Mario Cristobal but the Pac-12 is always immediately associated with the Trojans and that helps recruiting.

CONS

— Pro Town. This is what I call a city that has numerous options for eyeballs and if your team isn’t good, you won’t matter. When USC was great under Carroll it was the star of the town but now we have two NFL teams and of course basketball, baseball and other sports to compete for the family dollar. And that doesn’t even include the 1,000 other things you can do in LA.

— Time Zone. East Coast bias may or may not be a thing but I do know that of all the Power Five conferences it’s the Pac-12 that gets the least attention because of late games and the time difference. But USC was once appointment television and could be again. It’s just going to take a lot of work.

— Pac-12. The Big 12 is now the weakest Power Five conference when Texas and Oklahoma leave but the Pac-12 still won’t be far behind. Oregon and Washington have made the playoff since it began in 2014. While that’s better than just Oklahoma for the Big 12 it still seems as though the pollsters and committee want to leave the Pac-12 out if they can.

— Stadium. It’s not state of the art despite the millions of dollars of recent renovations and the acoustics aren’t great even when it is packed. And the fan base goes along with this. This isn’t Nebraska where they sell out even if the team struggles. The crowd for the Stanford loss was a great example of how game weekend recruiting visits are sometimes avoided.

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And finally I take a look at a few true freshmen who are already off to a great start to their college football careers.

QB Seth Henigan, Memphis - Through two games, Henigan has absolutely lit up the competition, throwing for 682 yards and six TDs with no interceptions. Yet again, the Tigers have a strong offense and Henigan should be able to put up some big numbers throughout the season.

OL Bryce Foster, Texas A&M - The former five-star has played every snap for the Aggies at center and has been up to the task so far, especially in the run game. He's going to be a special player for Texas A&M sooner rather than later.

RB Raheim Sanders, Arkansas - Sanders has 15 carries for 94 yards and a touchdown on the young season and was a key cog in the Razorbacks rushing attack that ran right over Texas this past weekend. Look for his role to grow as the season wears on.

WR Mario Williams, Oklahoma - In a deep receiving corps, Willams has already stood out for the Sooners, catching a touchdown in each of their first two games. Despite being only 5-foot-9, Williams has been lining up mostly out wide, and he's gotten good separation on opposing DB's.

DB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama - McKinstry got his first career start against Mercer last weekend and he played well in the win, getting his first career interception. He's the next great defensive back in the Crimson Tide pipeline.

RB Jarquez Hunter, Auburn - Through two games, Hunter, not Tank Bigsby, is the team's leading rusher, with 257 yards and two scores. This might be the beginning of a two-headed monster at tailback on The Plains.

DT Maason Smith, LSU - The top defensive prospect in the country from this year's class already has three sacks and four QB hurries in two games. You would imagine that he's going to get more playing time as the year progresses.

CB Denzel Burke, Ohio State - Burke has started at corner in both games for the Buckeyes, and he's been their best DB so far, allowing only 30.8% of targeting passes to be caught with three pass breakups already. While there are certainly some question marks on Ohio State's defense right now, Burke is not one of them.

DE Josaiah Stewart, Coastal Carolina - Stewart absolutely obliterated Kansas' offensive line last week, racking up four sacks and three QB hurries. He's going to force the coaches to move him from a situational pass rusher to a full-time player very soon.

RB Will Shipley, Clemson - While he didn't make a huge impact in the opener against Georgia, Shipley had a strong showing against SC State running for 80 yards and two touchdowns on two carries. Through two games, he's the Tigers' leading rusher.