Three-Point Stance: Derek Stingley, bust factor, safest five-star
MORE: Where former five-stars in the transfer portal might land
Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell’s thought-provoking Three-Point Stance is here with a look at why Derek Stingley Jr. will be great, the bust factor of each 2019 five star and the safest bet among the 2019 five-stars.
1. WHY DEREK STINGLEY IS NO. 1
Derek Stingley Jr. is not ranked No. 1 in the country by anyone else, at least not to my knowledge, but in three years we will be hearing his name near the top of the NFL Draft. When we started to discuss the top of the 2019 class, we kept coming back to Stingley Jr. because of how rare he is as a cornerback prospect. Was this decision as easy as it was last year with Trevor Lawrence? Not even close, but I am confident in our choice.
Stingley Jr. has already shown he is ready to make an impact at LSU bowl practices and once he gets into a college weight room, he will add size, speed and power. Keep in mind, this is a prospect who is already 6-foot-1, 185 pounds and runs like a deer.
The first cornerback to be ranked No. 1 overall in Rivals.com history, Stingley Jr. is right up there with Eric Berry, Patrick Peterson and a handful of others as the best at his position in my 20 years of scouting players.
Check back with me in a few years and congratulate us on being right.
2. FIVE-STAR BUST FACTOR
Some prospects, no matter their ranking, end up being busts at the next level. It happens. If we could accurately forecast busts, then we would obviously tweak our rankings accordingly.
Since we cannot, I'll go over our 30 five-star prospects and rate their potential to end up with a bust label.
I will rank each prospect's bust factor from MEDIUM to LOW. There is no such thing as NONE in this discussion because any play could be a player’s last play. The same goes for HIGH, because we wouldn't give a prospect a five-star ranking if we felt like there was a better-than-good chance of him ending up a bust.
Derek Stingley Jr. – LOW – Barring injury, he will not fail. He’s going to be one of the best cornerbacks in the nation by his sophomore year.
Nolan Smith – LOW – Smith isn’t the biggest or longest defensive end but he can play standing up or with his hand in the dirt and has a motor that never stops.
Trey Sanders – MEDIUM – Running backs are usually medium because of the chance to get injured and the dependency on the system they enter and their offensive line. Sanders could be a Heisman candidate, but there is still a chance he has to wait his turn like Najee Harris.
Jadon Haselwood – MEDIUM – Haselwood is a great talent and should excel in the Oklahoma offense, but with two other five-star wide receivers in this class one of them will struggle so he can’t get that low rating.
Antonio Alfano – LOW – Motor is a key when trying to predict bust factors and Alfano just never stops, so I can’t see him failing at Alabama.
Kayvon Thibodeaux – MEDIUM – He’s a great talent and should have a great career but I’m not sure he will be a superstar in a league like the Pac-12 where they struggle developing talent.
George Pickens – LOW – Pickens may not be a speedster but he’s strong, has good size and loves football. He fights for the ball every play.
Evan Neal – LOW – The only thing that could derail Neal is his weight issues. He’s battled that in the past but I think it will be handled at Alabama and he’ll be the next star tackle.
Zacch Pickens – LOW – You would think Pickens would be medium because he’s still so raw as a prospect, but this kid loves football and has so much athletic upside I can’t see him busting.
Demarvin Leal – MEDIUM – He has everything you want – size, speed and athleticism – but we’ll see if he has the drive to be great. I’m not sure.
Theo Wease – LOW – Wease is more of a sure thing than Haselwood despite being ranked behind him. I love his mentality and think he will be a star at Oklahoma.
Bru McCoy – MEDIUM – McCoy is a great athlete who could play either side of the ball, but I’m not sold he will dominate at whatever position he chooses.
Spencer Rattler – MEDIUM – Quarterbacks are usually medium unless they are named Trevor Lawrence, so while I think Rattler will have a great career, the bust factor at quarterback has me keeping him at medium.
Andrew Booth – LOW – He has size, speed and great instincts and he’ll be developed properly at Clemson on defense.
Christopher Hinton – MEDIUM – He earned his fifth star back and showed he can play with aggression and power on defense, but there’s still a chance he could struggle a bit at the college level.
Darnell Wright – MEDIUM – I worry about Wright’s conditioning as he has added some bad weight, so time will tell if he gets back in junior year shape and shows that quickness.
Charles Cross – MEDIUM – Cross has a high ceiling but it still very raw, so we’ll see if he can add the weight needed to be a star.
Marcel Brooks – LOW – Brooks wants to be great, covers a ton of ground and is a tackling machine, so barring injury, I can’t see him failing.
Chris Steele – LOW – Steele has good size and a good frame to fill out and Florida develops defensive backs so he’s a safe bet to be successful.
Trey Palmer – LOW – Palmer can be a star on offense or defense and is so talented that I can’t see him finding a home. He just needs to add weight and strength.
Trejan Bridges – LOW – I am a bigger fan of Bridges than anyone else and think his ball skills will assure him of stardom at the next level.
Kenyon Green – MEDIUM – Green carries some bad weight and can look slow at times so I wonder if he will continue to develop and improve in those areas.
Zach Harrison – MEDIUM – Harrison is a great looking prospect, but he’s so raw it will be interesting to see if he develops and becomes as good as his ceiling suggests.
Daxton Hill – LOW – With his top end speed I can’t see him failing because he already has excellent instincts.
Akeem Dent – MEDIUM – Corners are risky and Dent is a kid who takes some chances so he could be great as projected or fall short if he doesn’t become more consistent.
Kardell Thomas – LOW – Thomas doesn’t have as high a ceiling as some others and is already close to what we can expect in college, but that also means he doesn’t have a big bust factor.
Joe Ngata – MEDIUM – There have been many five-star wideout busts from California in recent years, so Ngata is a risk. Heading across the country to Clemson is also iffy.
Clay Webb – LOW – Webb is who he is, a hard-working, determined and physical center who has little chance of disappointing.
Bo Nix – MEDIUM – Nix is a quarterback, so he already has one strike against him as we’ve seen so many high level quarterbacks bust out or transfer, so time will tell if he becomes a star at Auburn.
Erick Young – LOW – Young could be a big corner or an average sized safety and I think he finds a home at one of the two positions and becomes a star.
3. THE SAFEST, NO-BUST FIVE-STAR IN THE 2019 CLASS
Who is the safest of the five stars, the one guy who has little chance to fail? Last year, despite my love for Trevor Lawrence, I went with Xavier Thomas because his position has a far lower bust level than quarterback, and so far I look smart. He’s going to be a superstar. This year I’m going with Nolan Smith, who will be a terror off the edge for Georgia and has too much love for the game and too big a motor to be stopped. Check back in a few years to see if I’m right.
