Three-Point Stance: Big 12 blunders, Bama competition, Big Ten recruiting

Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell’s thought-provoking Three-Point Stance is here with some thoughts on the Big 12, who can beat Alabama and a Big Ten recruiting breakdown.

The Big 12 chose not to expand. The Big 12 instead chose to play a game of the Bachelor and made 20 or so programs beg for their hand in marriage while handing out no rose (that’s right, I’m man enough to make a Bachelor reference).

The Big 12 chose to tick off its TV partners through this ridiculous non-expansion process. And the Big 12, if it wasn’t on life support before Monday, is now headed toward hospice care.

The league that has produced the fewest NFL prospects of any Power Five conference since 2014 and have seen recruiting drop off significantly since former members such as Nebraska and Texas A&M left the conference, is in big trouble.

Texas and Oklahoma will be fine when this all crumbles in the next eight years or so. The rest of the conference? It will be time for those teams to be waiting for a rose from the other Power Five conferences and a few of them will be sent home crying.

Expansion might not have saved the conference as Cincinnati, BYU and UCF don’t move the needle much, but now the Big 12 remains the only conference with fewer teams than the number in its name. Yes, a strong Longhorns or Sooners team can get into the college football playoff, but it has been made clear to the TCUs and Baylors of the world that you’re just not going to make the cut. They might as well call it the Big Two because those are the only two programs on any sort of strong footing, even more so after Monday. And trust me when I say this, recruits either notice this stuff or are being told by competing schools to take notice and things might just get worse from this point in that area.

Alabama looks unbeatable right? No one can touch it, right? Well I’m here to break it down for you and give you the percentage of chance of the teams that remain on Alabama's schedule and potential playoff opponents that could knock off the Crimson Tide.

Texas A&M – 33 percent. This is high for any team. The Aggies can run, they can bring pressure and they have a mobile quarterback. But the defense needs to tackle and they can’t turn the ball over – at all.

LSU – 15 percent. LSU has the talent and the homefield advantage. If Leonard Fournette is healthy, the 1-2 punch at running back with Derius Guice is awesome, but the passing game will hurt LSU as I can see a couple of pick sixes here.

Mississippi State – 5 percent. No need to explain.

Chattanooga – .00001 percent. Ditto.

Auburn – 15 percent. – Rivalry game and a great defense, but the offense will get destroyed.

SEC title game – 10 percent. Whoever it is, the Gators or a rematch with the Vols, it doesn't matter. Bama will crush them.

Ohio State – 35 percent. Seems low? This team is talented but too young and Bama will make J.T. Barrett pass to beat them.

Michigan – 30 percent. Senior leadership and a great defense, but the offense will likely get slammed and no mobility at quarterback is death.

Clemson – 50 percent. I know, I’m crazy. But something tells me the only team that can beat Bama has to have an elite quarterback who can drive the Tide crazy moving around, running, passing and keeping them off-balance. If DeShaun Watson is on, the Tigers have a shot.

Washington – 20 percent. Washington is balanced and can throw the ball, which could keep Bama off-balance for a bit, but a pocket passer will eventually get destroyed.

Louisville – 50 percent. If the Cardinals can somehow make the playoff, Lamar Jackson could be that Vince Young-type who just wills his team to a win and there is a lot of speed on this team.

Nebraska/Baylor/West Virginia – 5 percent. All are long shots to make the playoffs and if one of them somehow does, they will get crushed by Bama.

With recruiting at the slow point in the middle of the season, I thought I’d take a recruiting snapshot of sorts for each Power Five conference. We’ve done the SEC and ACC, so here’s a look at the Big Ten.

Biggest get – While WR Trevon Grimes is injured and out for the season, his commitment to Ohio State is a big one. He was always rumored to be a lean to the Buckeyes and was supposed to pull the trigger a couple of years ago, but now that’s he’s finally on board and the Buckeyes held off Florida, he’s a huge get.

Out of state steal – The Buckeyes are the team here as well with the pull of Florida cornerback Shaun Wade, a tall, elite defensive back who fits well with what they like to do on the outside. Worst case scenario he ends up as a ball-hawking safety, but watch out because SEC teams are still pushing for him.

Biggest surprise – Defensive end Josh Kaindoh chose his home-state Maryland Terps (he plays for IMG in Florida but hails from Maryland) even before they got off to a fairly good start this season. For a five-star prospect with every team in the country after him, his pick of Maryland is huge for D.J. Durkin and company.

Surprising class – Maryland, Rutgers and Iowa are all ranked higher, but Nebraska has less commitments than all of them and the No. 4 average star ranking in the conference. Is that a surprise with the Huskers undefeated? A little bit as the buzz around Nebraska has been unlike anything I’ve seen with the Huskers in a decade and the Calibraska movement is strong.

Struggling class – Most of the Big Ten is recruiting well, at least those expected to recruit well, but I expect a bit more from Wisconsin. With barely double digits in commitments and a 3.18 average star ranking, a top 10 team should step it up as Michigan State did the last few years. That being said, Wisconsin seems to do okay with the three-star guys it turns into beasts.

Recruiting battle to watch – Ohio State vs. Michigan, Urban vs. Harbaugh, top five team vs. top five team. Duh.

Must keep – Wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones is looking at Big Ten schools but Florida was his childhood favorite while Notre Dame, Alabama, Tennessee, USC, Texas A&M and others are still pressing. I think he stays in the Big Ten in the end, but the conference can’t afford to lose a talent like this.

Do or die – Now that Darrell Hazell has been fired I would say the hottest seat in the Big Ten has an office in State College. Penn State and James Franklin have compiled a small but very nice class for 2017 but must finish strong and avoid late de-commitments that happened in recent years.

Best 2018 get – Ohio State again here with Emory Jones, the five-star quarterback out of Georgia. No one recruits better nationally than Urban Meyer. No one.

MORE FARRELL: ACC recruiting snapshot | SEC recruiting snapshot