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Published Apr 3, 2019
Rob's Rankings: Teams that could crash CFB Playoffs
Rob Cassidy  •  Rivals.com
Recruiting Analyst

CLASS OF 2020 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | State | Position | Team

The start of the college football season is months away, but with spring football rolling on a number of campuses, it’s not too early to gaze ahead to kickoff and, ultimately, the 2019 College Football Playoff.

Ten different teams have played in the five-year-old event. And, of course there are certain things we know to be true in 2019. Alabama will be a force. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence will have the Tigers in the hunt. High-powered Oklahoma will once again be a player, and Georgia will also likely be in the thick of things.

It’s more fun, however, to examine the less-certain entities. It’s why this week, Rob’s Rankings examines and ranks teams’ chances of making their first ever CFP appearance.

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1. TEXAS

WHY IT MIGHT CRASH THE PLAYOFF: The Longhorns played for a Big 12 Championship a year ago and could easily do so again this year, as some of the league’s peripheral contenders lost piles of talent. A non-conference game with LSU is a potential pitfall, but the biggest obstacle standing between Tom Herman and the playoff is rival Oklahoma, a team it went 1-1 against in 2018. Every game on the schedule is winnable and the program’s impressive 2019 recruiting class should make it even more dangerous. The next step in the Texas-is-back tour is a Big 12 title and a playoff berth.

WHY IT PROBABLY WON’T: Texas will be favored in most games, but UT has found a way to lose to Maryland in each of the last two seasons. So while the Turtles aren’t on the 2019 schedule, Herman isn’t immune to dropping games he shouldn’t. The Longhorns also lost nearly their entire defense from last year’s 10-win season, and will need to avoid early-season growing pains if they hope to find their way to the playoff. Then there’s the issue of Oklahoma, which should be the class of the conference once again should former Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts, who transferred to OU this offseason, lives up to his billing.

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2. MICHIGAN

WHY IT MIGHT CRASH THE PLAYOFF: Jim Harbaugh finding his way to the sport’s biggest stage would create enough content to fill 50 news cycles and isn’t as far-fetched as opposing fans would like to think. Star quarterback Shea Patterson returns and seems to be thriving in the team’s new, up-tempo offense so far this spring. Harbaugh lost some key pieces – especially defensive ones – from last year’s 10-win squad, but the non-conference schedule isn’t particularly difficult and the Wolverines get to host both Michigan State and Ohio State this season.

WHY IT PROBABLY WON’T: The last time we saw Michigan, the Wolverines were getting swatted 41-15 by Florida. The time before that? A 62-39 powerbomb from rival Ohio State. That’s all to say momentum isn’t exactly on Harbaugh’s side. Neither is his history in big games. In addition to all that, the Buckeyes are still seen as the class of the Big Ten, and there are a number of possible pitfalls for Michigan outside of the game against their most hated rivals.

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3. FLORIDA

WHY IT MIGHT CRASH THE PLAYOFF: The Sunshine State’s most stable program, UF will ride a massive wave of momentum into 2019. Dan Mullen seems to have a solution to the offensive problems that plagued the program prior to his arrival and he may have even found a good option at quarterback. Florida lost plenty on defense last year, but Mullen landed a top-10 recruiting class led by five-star defensive back Chris Steele and Rivals100 defensive back Kaiir Elam, both of whom could see the field as freshmen. There’s plenty of talent of this roster and Mullen is proving he knows how to make the most of it.

WHY IT PROBABLY WON’T: Florida would rank above Michigan in vacuum, but this upcoming season won’t be played in one of those. Instead, the Gators will play in the SEC, where they will be forced to deal with games against Georgia, South Carolina, Auburn and, if all goes well, a likely SEC title matchup with Alabama. And while quarterback Felipe Franks was great at the end of last season, we’re less than a year removed from him being booed in his own stadium. Then, there’s the issue of the offensive line talent the program will be forced to replace. All in all, the Gators are a playoff longshot but stranger things have certainly happened.

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4. WASHINGTON STATE

WHY IT MIGHT CRASH THE PLAYOFF: If it weren’t for a late-season loss to Washington that saw the high-powered Wazzu offense grounded by a blizzard, Mike Leach’s program would have played for a Pac-12 championship and possibly a spot in the playoff a year ago. And while the Cougars have lost some important pieces from last year’s team, the Pac-12 isn’t exactly murderer’s row these days. Earlier this year, Washington State welcomed in transfer quarterback Gage Gubrud, who put up massive numbers at Eastern Washington. And while Gubrud isn’t a household name, neither was Gardner Minshew when he showed up in Pullman. Leach’s success has always been more about his system than anything else, so it’s not difficult to see Gubrud shining from day one.

WHY IT PROBABLY WON’T: Washington State could have most things break its way this fall and still find itself on the outside looking in, as its non-conference schedule is weak and the Pac-12 has been held out of the playoff in each of the last two seasons. The Cougars will need a little bit of luck in addition to everything else if they’re to pull this off. The Apple Cup could once again kill the program’s playoff dreams, as fellow playoff hopeful Washington will again present a massive hurdle in the regular-season finale.

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5. UCF

WHY IT MIGHT CRASH THE PLAYOFF: UCF will play this season without its best player, quarterback McKenzie Milton, who suffered a serious leg injury last season. Still, the Knights return a load of starters from a team that pulled off a perfect regular season a year ago. With games against Stanford and Pitt on the schedule this year, opportunities for Power Five victories exist.

WHY IT PROBABLY WON’T: Pick a reason. How about the fact that the system is rigged against Group of Five teams? And if you don’t like that one, Milton’s injury seems like a pretty good reason to rule the Knights out of the playoff picture. UCF will be formidable once again, but a Sept. 14 game Stanford could kill any playoff buzz before it is permitted to make fans of other teams meltdown on Twitter, which is becoming an enjoyable annual tradition.

MORE UCF: UCFSports.com

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OVERTIME

I, like most American sports fans, never saw a minute of an Alliance of American Football game. Was Steve Spurrier a coach? There was a franchise in San Antonio, right? Seems like maybe Johnny Manziel should have been involved? Was he? No? Oh well.

Anyway, reports that the league’s demise surfaced on Wednesday to the surprise of, well, some. So it only seems fitting that we here at Rob’s Rankings send the AAF off to the football grave by ranking the six best old tweets about a league that almost – ALMOST – survived an entire season.

1. Rosie nailed it. The playoffs are, in fact, dead.

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2. From “The way it’s supposed to be played” to “not played at all” in less than two months. Impressive.

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3. It’s back to the snowflakes for Rebecca. On the bright side, I’m sure Cowboys, Chiefs or Titans will accept her back with open arms.

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4. Sources close to the league tell me the NFL has survived.

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5. The G stands for gone.

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6. This is a man who has grown impatient waiting for AAF trading cards. Seriously.

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