Texas losing grip on Lone Star recruiting

MORE: Who's winning Texas?

This isn't the end of the line.

Texas isn't doomed to turn into a Big 12 doormat. It won't ever go 2-10 or even 4-8 for that matter. The sky remains in its place above Austin. Slicing through the hyperbole is important in this instance.

Then, so is the process of observing reality.

It's a reality that the once-dominant Longhorns have finished second to Texas A&M in the state recruiting rankings each of the last three years. That, in itself, isn't a problem, the thought that the trend may well repeat itself for the foreseeable future is where the worry arrives. Cedar Hill (Texas) High School head coach Joey McGuire sends multiple players to major college programs annually. He's as familiar with the recruiting landscape in the state as anyone. And, according to him, the pecking order in Lone Star territory isn't what it once was.

This, it seems, is a new day - a day where, early in the cycle as it may be, Texas' 2016 recruiting class ranks 56th nationally.

"It's tough, but I would probably say the top dog is becoming a mixture of TCU, Baylor and A&M," McGuire said. "I guess it kind of depends what position. Baylor is getting the receivers that they want. (TCU coach Gary) Patterson continues to do what he does. He's an amazing talent evaluator and A&M - they have the great classes, you're seeing that. Texas classes are still pretty darn good and special but they aren't the top dog like they were."

It's not as though the powerhouse high school coach hasn't given the subject thought. According to Dallas Morning News reports, McGuire was offered a position on Charlie Strong's Texas staff in January and declined the opportunity.

McGuire knows the challenges. He's seen them up close. They aren't a secret and don't take an expert to identify. That said, he doesn't mind outlining his take.

"I think when A&M went to the SEC, that opened up a whole new world," McGuire said . "It was easier to recruit for them. I think, with Baylor, it's the new stadium. Baylor and TCU are kind of the Oregon of the South with the uniforms and the winning. At the end of the day, the style they are playing and winning has opened the door for those coaches to get into different houses that they couldn't get in before."

Therein is the catch 22 of college football. Texas can't recruit at the level it once did because it isn't winning at the level it once did. You can flip that statement and it would be equally true. Are the days of UT being the dominant recruiting power in the state over? Rivals.com national recruiting director Mike Farrell doesn't think so. But his idea for a solution is a drastic one.

"I actually do think they can get back to that recruiting level, once they start winning again," Farrell said, "and get a coach who understands the culture and need to establish those in-state relationships. I'm not sure Strong is that guy."

Regardless of the coach, UT's reputation among top-level recruits will continue to shift in one direction or another. Where it stands now depends on whom you ask. Four-star tight end Kaden Smith is the No. 5 prospect in Texas and is committed to Stanford. It makes him a uniquely unbiased observed.

"My opinion? A&M is on top in the state of Texas right now," Smith said. "They are leading with, like, Baylor. I think all the recruits like A&M. They get the best recruits right now. Kids want to play against Bama and Ole Miss, not Texas Tech and Kansas. I've been to UT and A&M, and it just seemed like A&M had everything together in football. They have a plan. They know what they want to do."

Smith says that his opinion of UT is still high

"With UT, the school is great," he said. "The academics are great, but I feel like the new coaches and all the changes - I mean, they have all new coaches - is part of why they lose a lot of recruits to A&M. They lose some offensive ones to Baylor and TCU, but those two schools are all offense. They score 68 points but give up 68 points. I think that pushes some defensive recruits away sometimes."

Texas' new position in the recruiting landscape shouldn't be met with a measured approach. UT isn't exactly taking castoffs. A long list of programs would do anything to secure the No. 12 class nationally as the Longhorns landed a year ago.

The days of the Longhorns as the state's undisputed recruiting champions, however, seem like ancient history.

"It's tough, but I do think there has been a swing," McGuire said. "I mean, Texas' class last year was still pretty dang special, but I think it all goes back to who is winning. If coach Strong can turn it, he'll start getting those kids back, but I do think that with the new competitiveness and fighting the SEC now, it's allowing SEC West schools to recruit Texas better. It's making it tougher for Texas. That's clear."