Take Two: What's the smart bet in Ohio State-Penn State showdown?

CLASS OF 2019 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | State | Position | Team

CLASS OF 2020 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | State | Position

Take Two returns with a daily offering tackling a handful of issues in the college football landscape. Rivals.com National Recruiting Analyst Adam Gorney lays out the situation and then receives takes from Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell and a local expert from the Rivals.com network of team sites.

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Penn State defeated Ohio State two seasons ago in Happy Valley. Last year, the Nittany Lions blew a 35-20 lead early in the fourth quarter to lose by one point in Columbus.

So, here we are this weekend in arguably the biggest early-season showdown on Saturday night in State College, where fourth-ranked Ohio State visits No. 9 Penn State. The Buckeyes opened as four-point favorites and then the line dropped to 3.5, and it’s hovering around three points.

Both teams are offensive juggernauts, but have played largely against weak competition. Penn State leads the nation in scoring at 55.5 points per game; Ohio State is second at 54.5. The Nittany Lions have scored 63 in back-to-back wins over Illinois and Kent State.

The Buckeyes went to Texas and beat a tough TCU team, 40-28. They scored 77 in the season opener over Oregon State and downed Tulane in coach Urban Meyer’s return after a three-game suspension last week by 43 points.

Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins has already thrown 16 touchdown passes and is considered a Heisman front-runner. Trace McSorley, Penn State’s quarterback, could emerge even more in the Heisman talk with a big showing Saturday night. He’s already thrown for eight TDs and rushed for six more.

Both the Buckeyes and the Nittany Lions are national championship contenders. So in considering that Ohio State minus-3 line, which Big Ten power would you pick against the spread?

“People started asking me what I thought the line of the Ohio State/Penn State game would be the moment Ohio State went up 21-0 on Tulane last week, and I really started looking at the game with no expectations of what the line was going to be set at. In case you have not been paying attention, both of these teams can score a lot of points and neither of these teams are up to their usual defensive standards of years past.

"So, I allowed my mind to race to the point that I did not think there would be an over/under that could be set high enough for this game. But as for a line? I always felt that it would be around Ohio State by a field goal – a successful field goal, not what we saw in 2016 – or somewhere close to that. Any movement in that line would really go unnoticed by me because of all of my vices sports wagering is not one of them.

“I know both Ohio State and Penn State are both very polarizing programs on the national scene, and most people will go into this game rooting for neither team, but in light of Ohio State’s recent bad publicity it may be a trendy pick to bet against the Buckeyes. But my money, if I were to bet, would be on the Buckeyes to cover.”

"It’s a White Out. It’s going to be a really good atmosphere. Penn State beat them two years ago at home. A lot of those factors are playing into the line. Ohio State has been destroying everybody and it has been scoring at will. I don’t think the Buckeyes are going to be able to do that against Penn State, you just don’t know, but if I were betting, I would take Ohio State. That’s a low line.”