Take Two: Could USC be overtaken in Pac-12 recruiting?

CLASS OF 2019 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | State | Position | Team

Take Two returns with a daily offering tackling a handful of issues in the college football landscape. Rivals.com National Recruiting Analyst Adam Gorney lays out the situation and then receives takes from Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell and a local or regional expert from the Rivals.com network.

MORE TAKE TWO: Does Dantonio get enough credit for recruiting wins?

USC finds itself in nearly uncharted territory - not atop the Pac-12 team recruiting rankings.

It’s only mid-May so there is absolutely no need for concern or overreaction, but it’s important to note the Trojans have been slow out of the gates in their 2019 class with only four commitments, good for fifth in the conference rankings behind Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Cal.

The bad news for USC is that Oregon and Washington have been doing really well early this recruiting cycle and things could get better this weekend as four-stars Sean Dollars and Jeremiah Criddell from Santa Ana (Calif.) Mater Dei make their commitments. It would be a surprise if either picks the Trojans.

But there might be no need to be concerned. National Signing Day is still a ways off. The other reason maybe not to overreact is that none of the five-stars in California - DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, ATH Bru McCoy or CB Chris Steele - have committed yet. As of this writing, only two of the top 20 players in the state have made their pledges.

USC has finished with the top Pac-12 recruiting class in the Rivals.com era except for 2002, 2012 and 2013. It’s highly likely the Trojans have another huge haul. But should fans be worried that Oregon, or possibly Washington, could take the conference crown this year especially since the Ducks have been recruiting so well?

“I doubt USC passes the torch to anyone. There isn't another football school in the Pac-12. On top of that, USC's conference rivals have to come to Los Angeles and Southern California to sign the kids they want. That's a huge advantage for USC.

"Also, the 'top guys' you're referring too aren't just five-stars like Kayvon Thibeodeaux, Bru McCoy or Chris Steele. Other Rivals100 USC targets out West like Faatui Tuitele, Jonah Tauanu'u, Henry To'oto'o, Max Williams, Kyle Ford, Sean Rhyan and Maninoa Tufono remain uncommitted as well. It's only May and the top, top kids out West generally wait for a television opportunity to commit. USC will likely get the vast majority of those kids. That's what happens every year.

“Also, around this time every year, USC's class doesn't look anything like it will on Signing Day. For example, in 2018, USC signed the top class in the conference and a top-three class nationally. But at this same time last year, only two of those 18 signees had pledged to USC. That means 89 percent of USC's final class hadn't committed at this time last year. It's clearly way too early to start thinking another Pac-12 school can overtake USC in the final recruiting rankings. I would be absolutely shocked if any Pac-12 team finishes ranked higher than USC in the Rivals team rankings.

“The only two times USC hasn't signed the top Pac-12 class in the Rivals era were under very different circumstances. Those years came either under sanctions or following Clay Helton's first season. Helton was a universally panned coaching hire who just lost six games at USC. USC is not in a similar position at all this year. The Trojans have won 21 games the last two years, including the Rose Bowl following the 2016 season.”

“The Trojans will load up like they always do. They’re going to be tough to beat. Oregon is doing a good job, but they only have seven commitments. Washington is doing a good job recruiting, but they, like Oregon are at a disadvantage geographically to really compete with USC.

“If USC has a good season, more and more kids are going to be interested in staying home and by default it will win. My assumption is the only team that can really beat USC in recruiting consistently would be UCLA because they’re located in the same area. I just don’t see Oregon and Washington being able to consistently beat them or even beat them this year because of the geography issue.”