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The situation: LSU suffered one of its worst losses in recent memory over the weekend, dropping a home game to Sun Belt school Troy. But the Tigers also took a major loss on the recruiting trail shortly thereafter when Rivals100 defensive back Kelvin “Fat” Joseph backed off his longtime pledge to the school. Joseph, a Baton Rouge native and the No. 44 overall player in the country, had been committed to LSU for nearly 18 months. So how big of a blow is the loss of Joseph to the Tigers class and where do things go from here? We examine it on a local, regional and national level.

“Joseph is one of the top prospects for 2018 nationally and he was important for Ed Orgeron in Louisiana. One of the first things Orgeron talked about when getting the LSU job was locking down the state and keeping the best players home. While Joseph says in his de-commitment statement that LSU is still a leading contender, the timing of him reopening the recruiting process fuels the bad perception that Orgeron's first-year program is facing. After losing to Troy, the last thing Orgeron wanted the following Monday was the loss of a Rivals100 prospect from Baton Rouge. Particularly one who's been to Alabama for unofficial visits many times and is now going to look at Florida State.”

Sting factor: 9

“Joseph has made it clear over the past few months that he’s exploring his options, but even so I was still surprised to see him actually de-commit. I know it was on the heels of the loss to Troy and he was in the stadium, but I don’t think one loss directly led to his decision. However, the optics don’t look good and losing the highest-ranked player in the class isn’t a good look for the Tigers. Because he committed so early in his high school career, he didn’t get the type of recruiting attention that a national level recruit receives, so I expect him to take the next few months to enjoy being wooed by some of the nation’s top programs.”

Sting factor: 8

“This de-commitment has been expected for a while, so it's not the surprise aspect that makes it this high but the fact that it comes off an embarrassing loss to Troy and is a defensive back lost by a program that prides itself on being called ‘DBU’.”

Sting factor: 7

What happens next: Alabama has been working behind the scenes on Joseph for months and immediately move to the front of the line in terms of biggest threats to the Tigers. But Clemson and Florida State are also in the mix to get official visits down the line. LSU remains the favorite to reel Joseph back in, but once visits start taking place, some of the Tigers rivals will have an opportunity to steal him away for good.