The coaching rumor mill never waits for season end. Jobs are opening and the buzz machine is in full swing. It’s impossible to predict how the coaching carousel will shake out this offseason, but familiar names will be in unfamiliar places when the 2018 season kicks off. That much is certain.
It’s why, this week, we’ve ranked current head coaches in order of how likely they are to jump ship this offseason.
1. SCOTT FROST, UCF
Why he could bolt: Frost is the hottest young names in coaching for a reason. He enjoyed a successful run as Oregon’s offensive coordinator. And all he’s done in two years is turn UCF from an 0-12 team to an 9-0 program with a realistic shot of putting together a perfect season. Frost’s agent has likely already fielded plenty of calls and that should continue for the rest of his tenure in Orlando.
Where he might go: Well, lots of places. Frost played quarterback at Nebraska and the Cornhuskers will be without a head coach following the season. That seems like the natural fit. Florida could be involved as well, as the SEC program in the state where Frost has orchestrated the UCF turnaround is surely impressed with his work. If Frost is back as the Knights’ head coach next year it will be because Mike Riley is given another year at Nebraska or he’s waiting for another, specific job. In reality, though, Frost is as good as gone.
2. DAN MULLEN, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Why he could bolt: Mullen’s name is perpetually linked to other jobs, mostly in the SEC. The thinking is that he’s hit a “celling” at Mississippi State, where it’s difficult to land blue-chip prospects. Whether or not that’s true depends on who you ask, but other programs could offer Mullen a substantial raise if they lock in on him as a candidate. Regardless of what you think of the “ceiling” theory, money talks. As does the chance to compete for five-star prospects and national titles.
Where he might go: There’s been plenty of unsubstantiated rumors that Mullen has his eye on the open Florida job, but that’s far from a sure thing. Mullen’s name seems to come up every time another SEC school fires its coach and this offseason will be no different. Tennessee is open, but it seems as though the Vols are more interested in other candidates. If A&M parts ways with Kevin Sumlin following the season, Mullen’s name could be linked with the Aggies in addition to the Gators.
3. MATT CAMPBELL, IOWA STATE
Why he could bolt: Because plenty of other coaches have died on the vine at Iowa State. Former head coach Paul Rhoades was a hot name after an encouraging start in Ames but the program never sustained success under his rule and Rhoades was fired after his sixth season as coach. Campbell is currently 6-4, buzzed about and may want to strike a payday while he can.
Where he might go: Campbell won’t be any major program’s first call, but if schools start to be turned away by more established names, they could end up sending a jet to Ames. It’s not out of the question that Ole Miss or Oregon State could be involved here if things break correctly. Campbell may very well end up back at Iowa State next year, but he’s not a lock to do so.
4. MIKE LEACH, WASHINGTON STATE
Why he could bolt: Having the boss that hired you bolt is enough to scare any employee and that certainly applies to football coaches. So when Washington State athletics director Bill Moos left Pullman to take the same job at Nebraska, some semblance of doubt naturally took hold. Leach has a good thing going at Washington State, so he may well elect to stay put for his entire coaching future, but that’s no sure thing.
Where he might go: Leach could be in play should Nebraska open and somehow fail to secure Frost. Moos is comfortable with Leach and seen his success up close. Leach’s phone may also ring should Arkansas open as there will be some semblance of fan pressure on the Razorbacks to take a look. The fan base already has a massive online petition, after all.
5. MIKE NORVELL, MEMPHIS
Why he could bolt: Novell is enjoying success in the same state as Tennessee’s open job. He’s also a young coach that has proven he can win with mid-level talent. He’s proven that his offense works at the Power Five level, as he helped Arizona State’s offense consistently rank among the nation’s best in total yards and points.
Where he might go: Arkansas might be an option should the program decide to part ways with Bret Bielema. Originally from Texas, Novell attended Central Arkansas and has ties to many of the Razorbacks’ important recruiting areas. He’s spent time coaching in Oklahoma and could be the type of personality that can up the program’s results in the Lone Star State. While Novell may not be target No. 1 for major programs this offseason, he’s certainly on a number of lists as a backup option to explore.
6. CHAD MORRIS, SMU
Why he could bolt: This is admittedly a long shot as Morris isn’t as proven as some coaches on this list. That said, he’s having a nice season at SMU that will end in a bowl appearance. When you consider Morris took over following a 1-11 season, these six wins start to look impressive. Morris may look to bail on a high note if he thinks a postseason appetence is SMU’s immediate ceiling.
Where he might go. Morris isn’t a likely candidate for any of the top-level jobs that are open or will become open, but he could look to take a step up should a mid-level Power Five school have an opening. Texas Tech may be inclined to look his way if they part ways with Kliff Kingsbury, which isn’t expected. Illinois or even Kansas may shoot Morris a look if their respective jobs open following the season.
7. WILLIE TAGGART, OREGON
Why he could bolt: This would take a host of qualifiers, but it’s possible Taggart could pair a disappointing season with a desire to be closer to his Florida recruiting base and try to find a way to the East Coast. He’s not likely to be anyone’s first call following his first season in Eugene, but he has the credentials to make a school take a look should it swing and miss a time or two. He’s a proven recruiter and one mediocre season at rebuilding Oregon shouldn’t taint the work he’s done previously.
Where he might go: Tennessee and Florida could be options here. Taggart’s SEC recruiting base and success in the state of Florida is appealing to both programs. It’s maybe not the splash hire some fans would like, but Taggart is certainly a logical possibility for both schools.
8. LANE KIFFIN, FAU
Why he could bolt: College football is supposed to be fun and the higher profile job Kiffin holds the more fun it is. From that perspective, this is a selfish inclusion. If a major school comes knocking for Kiffin, he’ll almost certainly listen. Whether or not that will happen, however, is the question. Kiffin is yet to find sustained success as head coach, but turning FAU, which is coming off three straight 3-9 finishes, into a conference title contender in year one is a significant accomplishment.
Where he might go: Who knows? Trying to predict Kiffin is trying to predict a hurricane. His course could change 10 times between now and December. There’s also always the possibility that he goes out to sea and is never heard from again. Somebody might take a chance on him, though, and college football would be better for it.
OVERTIME
Miami is for real and so are the fights in its stadium. The Hurricanes proved both of those facts during its 41-8 clubbing of Notre Dame this weekend. Out of the game sprouted this lovely video of a donnybrook on the Hard Rock Stadium concourse.
I don’t condone violence, but I do condone ranking things … such as the pugilists in this blessing of an altercation. You’ll find those rankings below.
1. Midwestern Hoss In Hat and Jeans
The star of the show. This clearly does not appear to be his first concourse brawl. He escalated the fight and he finished it. He threw the altercation's most notable punches, including one that knocked a Miami fan off his feet with the force of a cannon. Ranking him anything other than No. 1 may offend him, and I don’t want him coming for me. My byline is on this story.
2. Curly Hair Guy
Yeah, he was on the receiving end of the fight’s biggest haymaker, but Rocky Balboa made an entire career on his ability to take a punch. The way he bounces up from an atomic bomb of a right hook is enough to earn my respect. Get this man some training and he could turn into a decent barroom pugilist. The intangibles are there.
3. Green Long-Sleeved Shirt Bro
The best offense is a strong defense. Green Shirt Man doesn’t land many licks, but he uses the fight's first big punch – taking down two guys with one swing – and sent an immediate message. His stance and light feet seem to keep him out of trouble. Miami fans look genuinely scared of his demeanor from the jump, as nobody seems particularly eager to engage him.
4. White Tank Top Dude
He escalates the thing by throwing a drink on Midwest Hoss from behind a crowd and pays for it. He somehow avoids getting his face broken but lands no notable shots save for a weird headlock and stumbles off with a stretched tank top and some exposed chest hair. He could easily be ranked last if it weren’t for …
5. Backward Hat Beer Drinker
Our boy gently sets his beer down on the floor in an effort to not waste any booze before gingerly approaching Green Long-Sleeved Shirt Bro. He goes so far as to cock his fist back before thinking better of it and quickly bailing out of the frame for the rest of the fight. It’s the smart move, sure, but smart won’t score you any points in these rankings.
Honorable mention: Notre Dame Grandmother
Far right side of the frame, next to the stadium entrance. She watches from the front row and doesn’t bail until the very end. Grandma has seen some things in her life and isn’t going to be rattled by a crew of young punks throwing punches. She remembers when fights use to include pool sticks and glass bottles.