Rob's Rankings: Playoff chances, and the nation's bottom four

The first College Football Playoff rankings of 2017 are out and what they mean is, well, negotiable. There’s plenty of the season left to play and some of the schools that currently reside in the top 10 may be nowhere to be found at season’s end. This week, Rivals.com takes a shot at handicapping the race. Below are playoff ranking’s top 10 ranked in order by likelihood to actually make the playoff.

It should be noted that this is not a rankings of the best teams or most deserving teams, but rather a ranking of how likely these teams are to still be standing come selection day.

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CFP Playoff rank: 2

Why it might make it: History suggests Alabama will be front and center when the playoff gets under way. The fact that it has blown the doors off of just about every team it has played also adds momentum to that theory. The Tide are outscoring opponents 344-78 and allowing opponents an average of 9.8 points per game. The schedule gets a little tougher from here, but there’s nothing to suggest a total meltdown in on the horizon.

Why it might not: Aside from a rash of injuries or an alien invasion, a loss in the Iron Bowl coupled with losing to Georgia in the SEC title game seems to be the most likely road to an Alabama-free playoff. Still, the Tide have looked like the best team in the country for most of the season and haven’t been particularly close to a loss thus far. The Tide seems like a lock to make it, but a rough end-of-season schedule that includes four games against ranked teams suggests there’s no such thing as a lock.

CFP Playoff rank: 4

Why it might make it: Yes, Clemson is carrying a bad loss but the rest of its ACC schedule isn’t exactly muderer’s row. Games against South Carolina, Citadel, Florida State and NC State remain. And while it’s not out of the question that the Tigers pick up another loss, a trip to the ACC title game seems like a strong possibility. What happens there will likely determine the team’s postseason fate.

Why it might not: The loss to Syracuse looms large because the Tigers can absolutely not withstand another defeat. Add in the fact that the ACC title game will likely pit them against Miami or a sneaky powerful Virginia Tech team, and the road to the playoff looks a little more treacherous.

CFP Playoff rank: 1

Why it might make it: Undefeated Georgia has not played a game decided by less than 25 points since the beat Notre Dame 20-19 on Sept. 9. It’s actually hard to find a knock on the Bulldogs, as the program appears ahead of schedule under Kirby Smart and looks like a playoff-level team every weekend. If “style points” are an actual commodity, UGA has a surplus.

Why it might not: Georgia is not immune to upsets. Bulldog fans know that all too well. And games against Auburn, South Carolina and Georgia Tech are all capable of providing a roadblock. Should UGA drop a game in that stretch, it will likely have to beat Alabama in the SEC title game in order to make the playoff. Nobody wants to be in that situation.

CFP Playoff rank: 3

Why it might make it: Notre Dame’s strength of schedule combined with the fact that it won’t have to play a conference title game may allow the Irish to finish the year as a one-loss team and roll into the playoff. Notre Dame hasn’t lost since it dropped a game to fellow playoff contender Georgia in early September and has blown the doors off of every opponent it has faced since. Back-to-back games with Wake Forest and Miami will do plenty to determine the season’s fate.

Why it might not: A loss from here on out sends Notre Dame home without a playoff berth. That much is clear. So while the road to a one-loss season doesn’t seem impossibly daunting, the room for error is very small. The Irish could well lose at Miami and see it’s playoff hopes die Scarface-style in South Florida.

CFP Playoff rank: 5

Why it might make it: It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Oklahoma wins out and manages to steal the last playoff spot based on a head-to-head win over Ohio State, which may also be in the discussion. The Sooners have the best resume of any Big 12 team to date.

Why it might not: The remaining schedule is full of potential pitfalls and a second loss will destroy any chance the Sooners have of a playoff berth.

CFP Playoff rank: 6

Why it might make it: Ohio State’s resume is as good as any one-loss team’s. An early loss to Oklahoma, a school also in the playoff hunt, is no shame and a recent win over Penn State is the reason the Buckeyes debuted at No. 6 in the Playoff Rankings. With Michigan having a less-than-stellar year, Ohio State’s final four regular season games (Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois and the Wolverines) look manageable.

Why it might not: Ohio State could end up in a showdown with Wisconsin come conference championship time. And, if certain things break the right way in the days leading up such a contest, it could be a play-in game. It’s highly unlikely that the Big Ten is getting two teams into the playoff, so any loss from here forward likely puts the Buckeyes on the outside looking in. Also, if a situation arises that sees the Buckeyes and Sooners both with one loss and in consideration for the final playoff spot, the head-to-head loss could be devastating.

CFP Playoff rank: 9

Why it might make it: Wisconsin has a relatively easy soft path to an undefeated regular season that would land it in the Big Ten title game. That’s not say it won’t drop a game to Iowa or Michigan and see the dream ruined. It’s just to say that not having Ohio State, Penn State or Michigan State on the schedule is fortuitous. If the Badgers enter the postseason undefeated, they’ll have to get by Ohio State in order to break into the playoff.

Why it might not: Wisconsin has zero margin for error because of a what’s perceived as a soft schedule. The Badgers avoided the heavy hitters from the Big Ten East this season, which almost ensures that they’l have to finish undefeated to have a shot at a national title. Beating Ohio State (or Penn State) in the Big Ten title game seems like a tall order for a team that hasn’t seen an elite program all year.

CFP Playoff rank: 10

Why it might make it: Miami is probably a little better than it’s credited for being. It doesn't have any “marquee” victories, but Georgia Tech and, to a lesser extent, Syracuse are decent victories. At the end of the day, undefeated is undefeated, so the Hurricanes are few lucky plays away from becoming a real contender to sneak in.

Why it might not: Because games against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame loom. Miami gets to play both games at home, which is a nice perk but they haven’t looked nearly as dominant as either of those two opponents. The margin for error is small, however, as a single loss — particularly one to fellow ACC Costal contender Virginia Tech — likely puts the Hurricanes in a tough spot.

CFP Playoff rank: 7

Why it might make it: The remainder of Penn State’s regular season schedule is less than daunting to say the least. Games against Michigan State, Rutgers, Nebraska and Maryland remain, so the soft schedule helps. Penn State needs to tread water and hope for some losses by other teams on this list.

Why it might not: The Nittany Lions will need some help to get into the Big Ten title game even if they go 4-0 against mediocre teams down the stretch. It’s hard to imagine a scenario that sees Penn State miss the Big Ten title game but makes the CFP, as both Wisconsin and Ohio State are also in contention.

CFP Playoff rank: 8

Why it might make it: It’s gonna be tough, but if TCU finds a way to finish the season 12-1 by beating Oklahoma both in the regular season and in the Big 12 title game, it will be mighty hard to keep the Frogs out. This, of course, is an uphill fight, but certainly not impossible.

Why it might not: Back-to-back games with Texas and Oklahoma aren’t ideal for a one-loss team clinging to playoff hope. TCU Is going to have to win impressively in that stretch and also pull of a Big 12 title game victory in order to have a chance. Even then, the Frogs will need to catch a break or two.

Everyone loves an underdog, so it stands to reason that they only thing people would love more than one underdog is a four-team playoff full of them, This week, we’ve ranked the worst FBS teams in the country and seeded them in a fictional loser’s playoff that would provide awful football but awesome comedy.

Below are the seeds as they stand today.

1. Baylor (0-8)

Winless Baylor could easily be replaced on this list by Kansas and we’ll settle that on the field when the two juggernauts clash this weekend in front of dozens of fans in Lawrence. The bottom-four playoff needs a power conference representative, and it seems likely that the Big 12 is capable of producing one.

2. Coastal Carolina (1-7)

Coastal Carolina is the “Chanticleers”, which I had no idea was a word until this week. Add in the facts that they’re an impressive 1-7 and most people have no idea they’re an FBS program, and you have the type of Cinderella a bottom-four playoff needs. The committee was blown away by Coastal’s 27-7 loss to perviously winless Texas State on Saturday.

3. UTEP (0-8)

The worst team in the Conference USA gets an automatic bid in the reality I’ve created, and the Miners look on pace to holding down that title. That said, UTEP has played a relatively challenging schedule and will probably steal a win and lose their spot in the event before season’s end.

4. Georgia Southern (0-7)

It’s tough to imagine this not being the worst team in the country. Being 0-7 in one thing, but this is a team that lost 22-12 to something called the University of New Hampshire in a game that somehow wasn’t as close at the score indicates.