Rivals100: New No. 1, new five-stars
The preseason Rivals100 Presented By Under Armour for the class of 2016 has been
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released and with it, the nation has another new No. 1 prospect. Defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence had his short stay at No. 1 in the country and could certainly return, but Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy quarterback Shea Patterson takes over at the top after a great summer where he continued
to show improvement in so many areas.
"Patterson won out in a heated battle," said Rivals.com National Recruiting
Director Mike Farrell. "He had a great summer and when you put everything
together -- his ability to prolong the play, his arm strength and mechanics and
the way he throws receivers open, I could go on and on -- he just has that 'it'
factor you look for in a quarterback."
Patterson was outstanding at the Cam Newton quarterback competition and the IMG
7-on-7 national championships. Plus, he took home the Elite 11 title and was simply outstanding in team play at The Opening. Reflecting on his performance at each stop and the throws he made on film, his move from No. 2 to No. 1 was justified.
"He reminds me of Josh Rosen last year," Farrell said. "He's not as tall as Rosen, but he has that same attitude and ability. He moves around better than Rosen and throws an equally catchable ball and each one of them would give me great confidence if I'm the coach and my team is trailing in the fourth quarter."
In fact, a glimpse of that was seen this past weekend in IMG's opener where
Patterson threw what appeared to be the game-tying touchdown pass (a successful PAT would have put IMG on top) on the last play of the game of the game in a tough 19-7 loss to American Heritage. The
touchdown, a thing of beauty where Patterson not only showed off his ability to
scramble but his arm strength on the run as well, was called back due to a
holding penalty. Patterson was picked for a score on the final play of the game,
a desperation heave of sorts in the end zone, but it shouldn't take away from
the previous play.
"That play is what I'm talking about," Farrell said. "This kid is a winner. His
offensive line struggled all game, he struggled a bit out of the gate but he got
things going with his feet and then when his team needed the win, he delivered
only to be let down again by the line. This past weekend's games didn't even
factor into our rankings decisions on anyone - they were locked in last week
before play started - but it's a great example of how Patterson is going to be
that guy who leads a ton of fourth-quarter comebacks in college and beyond."
Mid-South Analyst Jason Howell, who has followed Patterson
since he was a freshman, agrees with the move to No. 1.
"Patterson continues to show he is one of the best in the country," Howell said. "He has put himself in position to compete against the best and he continues to come out on top. The latest example came at the Elite 11 where he earned top honors. He is polished, he is athletic. He is ultra-competitive and smart. He
may not be some 6-foot-4 guy but he has great arm strength, a quick release, and
great intangibles."
And the height factor is something that Farrell, an old school guy, has begun to
ignore.
"You have to ignore it in many cases and we're not talking about a 5-foot-10 kid
here, Shea is every bit of 6-foot-2 or in that range," said Farrell. "But with
Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Johnny Manziel and others having success on
different levels, as long as they can throw through lanes, it doesn't make a
huge difference. Patterson can throw over the top, through passing lanes and he
works so well outside."
Southeast Analyst Rob Cassidy, who handles Florida where
Patterson now does his work, also loves what he sees.
"Patterson was fantastic at every stop this offseason and shined at the national
7-on-7 championships at IMG academy, to which he recently transferred," said
Cassidy. "His showing at the Elite 11 certainly didn't hurt his stock, either. He
will have no shortage of chances to live up to his No. 1 ranking, as he and IMG
will play a truly national schedule that includes a number of tests."
Which is why Patterson, who replaces Lawrence at No. 1, who replaced quarterback
Jacob Eason, who replaced wide receiver Nate Craig-Myers before
him, is certainly no lock to be No. 1 at the end of the 2016 rankings cycle.
"You look at our top 10 and see names like Lawrence, No. 2 Rashan Gary,
No. 4 Gregory Little, linebackers like Mique Juarez, Ben Davis and Lyndell Wilson and guys like Demetris Robertson
and Marlon Davidson and it's wide open," said Farrell. "And don't
forget Eason lurking at No. 10, an elite quarterback himself. The last two
rankings cycles will be key."
In addition to a new No. 1, we have two new five stars but also four prospects
that lost that coveted fifth star.
"It's the first time I can remember more guys in blue than in red," said Farrell,
talking about the color coding for a new five star (red) and for a prospect
losing his fifth star (blue). "I think it's because we are ranking prospects
earlier and earlier and we are seeing more and more of them either stop
progressing at a five-star level or actually regress. That's my only explanation
and I think as we, as an industry, continue to rank earlier then more big
changes will occur. We've already had our fourth No. 1 in the 2016 class so the
days of bell-to-bell No. 1 players could be over."
Here's a look at the two new five stars and the four players that lost that
fifth star with a breakdown by our recruiting analysts.
"Nauta is the type of well-rounded tight end that comes around only once every
four years or so. He is large enough to be wildly effective as a blocker but
lean and explosive enough to be a major threat in the passing game. Whether it's
7-on-7 play or high school competition, he's always one of his team's biggest
offensive threats and is as versatile a player as there is in America." --
Cassidy
"I'm not a huge fan of making tight ends five-stars as many can tell by the
small number we've had over the years, but Nauta to me represents old-school
values in a tight end that aren't appreciated enough. He's shown he's a capable
and physical blocker at the high school level and that will be an asset at the
next level and beyond. He's re-dedicated himself to the weight room and has
become much more a threat in the passing game because he can now gain separation
with ease. If I had to compare him to an NFL tight end, it would be Jason Witten,
and that's high praise." -- Farrell
LOST FIFTH-STAR
DT
Sugar Hill (Ga.) Lanier
"While Brown is still considered one of the top defensive tackle prospects in
the country, he just hasn't been able to keep pace with some of the absolute
elite players at his position in terms of development. He struggled at times
during some of the summer's top camps while going against highly-ranked
offensive lineman, while some of his peers excelled in the same environment." -- Wommack
"Brown is an example of a prospect who has sort of stalled in his development
and needs to reach deep to take his game to the next level. He was overmatched
last summer but a good junior year led to a fifth star. This was supposed to be
his summer of redemption, but after an average spring, he paled in comparison to
the elite at his position." -- Farrell
S
Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy
"Smith had an up-and-down offseason. He looked like his usual self at times but
was prone to lapses that seemed to crop up more and more often as the offseason
progressed. While extremely talented, he has not been consistent enough in
coverage or over the top to be considered a true five-star prospect. He'll have
a full season to earn back his fifth star, but he'll need to show off the
ability to not get caught taking plays off." -- Cassidy
"This was a tough one, but when comparing Smith to the elite five-star safeties
or even big corners we've seen in recent years, he hasn't reached and sustained
that level. Being No. 30 still puts him in five-star range as we usually have
30-35 each year, but we want to see a jump in his play this season. Look at our
last four five-star safeties and you can see why he has his work cut out." -- Farrell
LB
Havelock, N.C.
"Joyner is one of the most physically gifted players in this class and probably
has one of the highest ceilings, but staying on the field and being more
consistent are a must for him. Last season didn't end very well for him and he
needed to prove himself this offseason to show he really is a five-star.
Instead, he showed up to the Under Armour Elite 50 out of shape, got hurt early
at Rivals Camp Series: Charlotte and at the Rivals100 Five-Star Challenge Presented by Under Armour. Physically, Joyner is getting back to where he where he was
last season, but if he wants his fifth star back he will have to dominate from
the beginning to the end of his senior campaign." -- Mid-Atlantic Analyst Adam Friedman
"After doing this for years and years, red flags emerge when it comes to certain
players and the injuries Joyner has suffered in camp settings have raised those
for me. His sophomore film was amazing, which led to his early five-star ranking.
His junior film was solid but he struggled a bit near the end and his offseason
has been a disaster. He needs to bounce back." -- Farrell
WR
Miami (Fla.) Central
"After starting the offseason off looking like a truly elite wide out, Salomon
had a poor showing at the Rivals100 Five-Star Challenge. He failed to showcase
the explosiveness he once possessed and dropped a number of balls that should have
been catches. He looked nothing like an elite prospect when matched up against a
slew of other high-level players." -- Cassidy
"I'll take the hit on this one. I over-reached on pushing for Salomon
being a five-star after he was dominant against a great group of defensive backs
at RCS: Miami and competing
against an elite group of wide receivers. Physically, he screamed five-star to me,
but this summer he looked ordinary when compared to elite wideouts and against
top defensive backs. It's almost like he was a different player, so much so he
fell out of our Rivals100. It was Jekyll and Hyde for sure." --
Farrell
Mike Farrell
National Recruiting Director
Adam Gorney
National Recruiting Analyst
Blair Angulo
West Recruiting Analyst
Rob Cassidy
Midlands/Southwest Recruiting Analyst
Adam Friedman
Mid-Atlantic Recruiting Analyst
Josh Helmholdt
Midwest Recruiting Analyst
Jason Howell
Mid-South Recruiting Analyst
Woody Wommack
Southeast Recruiting Analyst
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