Rankings Spotlight: Programs overperforming, underperforming in 2025 class
We’re in the midst of commitment season across the college football world as recruits traverse the country taking their official visits. Which five teams are crushing it on the recruiting trail? Which five teams are under-performing?
Take a look at how teams are doing compared to their average recruiting team rankings finish over the last four years.
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Over-performing
Michigan: Shocking that the reigning national champions are seeing an uptick on the recruiting trail, right? Sitting at No. 32 in the team recruiting rankings with just eight commitments, the raw numbers wouldn’t suggest that Michigan is over-performing on the recruiting trail.
Sherrone Moore and company have one of the smallest recruiting classes in the Big Ten too. A deeper look at Michigan’s work on its 2025 recruiting class reveals a startling statistic. If the Wolverines can maintain their 3.88 average stars per commit through the end of this recruiting cycle, there’s an 86-percent chance of Michigan finishing with a top five recruiting class.
Only seven teams with an equal or better average stars per commit rating over the last 10 years have finished outside the top five in the team recruiting rankings. Michigan’s average team recruiting ranking for the last four years is 12th. Moving into the top five would be a substantial and meaningful jump.
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USC: Lincoln Riley’s recruiting class took a big hit this week when Rivals250 defensive end Isaiah Gibson decommitted but the Trojans are still on pace for a better-than-average recruiting class this year. Their average finish the last four years is 22nd in the team recruiting rankings but it’s nearly a lock that USC finishes better this year.
The Trojans' class has an average stars per commit rating of 3.92 right now. Barring a wave of decommitments that would include five-stars Julian Lewis and Justus Terry, there is almost no chance USC doesn’t finish with a class that ranks inside the top 20.
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Syracuse: Fran Brown and his new staff at Syracuse took over in late November and put together Syracuse’s highest-ranked class ever (No. 36). Syracuse hasn’t been a recruiting powerhouse in the last 50 years but that’s still no small feat. The momentum Brown built over the last seven months has carried over to the 2025 cycle and now the Orange are ranked No. 14 in the team recruiting rankings with 23 commitments and a 3.04 average stars per commit rating. It’s unlikely they remain that highly ranked as more players announce their commitments but consider the fact that Syracuse’s average team recruiting ranking over the last four years was 60th and its average stars per commit rating over that time period was 2.73.
Over the last 10 years, there have been 284 teams that have signed at least 20 players with a 3.04 average stars per commit rating. Of those teams, 271 (95-percent) have finished No. 36 or worse in the final team recruiting rankings. Odds clearly favor Syracuse signing its best recruiting class ever for the second year in a row.
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Arizona State: Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils suffered some losses via the transfer portal this year but they’re bouncing back with a very solid recruiting class. They currently have a top 20 recruiting class even though the program has averaged No. 65 in the team recruiting rankings over the last four years.
If the Sun Devils sign at least 18 prospects and maintain their 3.14 average stars per commit rating, they should finish with a top-40 recruiting class, which they haven’t done since the 2020 recruiting cycle.
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Rutgers: The recruiting trail in Piscataway has been red hot lately. Rutgers has the No. 6 recruiting class in the nation despite averaging a No. 43 finish over the last four years. If the 2025 recruiting cycle ended today, its 3.07 average stars per commit rating would be the highest it has ever recorded.
In the last 10 years, there have been 260 teams to sign at least 20 players with an average stars per commit rating of at least 3.07 and only nine of them have finished outside the top 35. That is to say, Rutgers will very likely have a higher-ranked recruiting class this year than it did last year and it could be its best class since the 2012 recruiting cycle.
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Under-performing
Florida: Is it only a matter of time before Florida steps on the gas or is it a sign of something more troubling? The Gators only have five commitments so far and rank No. 71 in the team recruiting rankings when they’ve averaged a No. 14 finish over the last four years.
Billy Napier’s recruiting class does carry an average stars per commit rating of 3.6, which projects out to be a top 20 recruiting class, but there is a long way to go before making any claims that Florida's 2025 recruiting haul will rank inside the top 20 when all is said and done.
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Florida State: The Seminoles were an undefeated conference champion last year but they have virtually zero recruiting momentum right now. With four total commitments, Florida State sits at No. 57 in the team recruiting rankings but it does have the best average stars per commit rating in the nation at 4.25 thanks to five-star Solomon Thomas and three four-stars in Javion Hilson, Tramell Jones and Ethan Pritchard.
That average stars per commit rating will come back to Earth as Florida State adds more commitments but it will be interesting to see when the Noles make their move. The Seminoles haven’t had a top 10 recruiting class since the 2018 recruiting cycle so Mike Norvell and company need to continue grinding or potentially miss out on a top 10 recruiting class again.
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Miami: What’s going on with the Big Three in the state of Florida? The Hurricanes have been a recruiting force the last two years but currently rank No. 42 in the team recruiting rankings. That’s pretty shocking compared with their average finish of No. 13 in the rankings over the last four years.
Mario Cristobal and staff are seemingly waiting to pounce so these next few months ahead of the season are critical. As of now, Miami holds eight commitments with an impressive 3.75 average stars per commit rating.
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Arkansas: Results on the recruiting trail in Arkansas are a bit sluggish as Sam Pittman and company try to reload for the future. They’ve averaged a team recruiting ranking of 26th over the last four years but sit at No. 34 right now.
Their average stars per commit rating has also slipped down to 3.0. Pittman got off to a strong start at Arkansas but things have changed in a hurry and the lack of recruiting success certainly isn’t helping.
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Texas: The Longhorns were a play away from the national championship game last season. Now, here in the heart of the recruiting calendar, Texas has yet to make its big push toward the top of the team recruiting rankings.
Steve Sarkisian and his staff sit at No. 23 in the team rankings after top five finishes the last three years and a No. 14 finish the year before that. With 11 commitments onboard carrying an average stars per commit of 3.64, Texas is in position to shoot up the team rankings but the 'Horns haven’t made their big push yet.