Ahead of another loaded weekend of college and NFL games, take a look at where some of the biggest names in the sport were ranked as high school recruits and whether or not their ranking was a Hit or a Miss.
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CLASS OF 2025 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2026 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2027 RANKINGS: Top 100
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Goff didn't have an offer sheet that wowed anybody but his play on the field was as solid as very impressive. In the 2013 recruiting class, he finished the ranking cycle at No. 140 in the Rivals250. He went on to Cal and earned the starting job in his first fall camp. He threw for 3,500 yards that season and didn't slow down over the next two years.
His consistency over his college career helped him become the first overall pick by the Los Angeles Rams in the 2016 NFL Draft. Over the next five years, Goff would prove to be a standout NFL quarterback but just couldn't get the Rams over the hump. He made it to one Super Bowl but was ultimately traded to the Detroit Lions ahead of the 2021 season and now the Lions have Super Bowl aspirations with him under center.
Despite having him ranked highest in the industry, Goff’s ranking was still too low for a player who ended up becoming the No. 1 pick in the draft and led a team to the Super bowl.
Verdict: Miss
Texas A&M got Hill’s commitment prior to his senior season but the Aggies weren't able to keep him onboard while they posted a 5-7 record in the final season of Jimbo Fisher's tenure. The five-star opted to sign with Texas as a member of its 2023 recruiting class and it seems like he made the right decision because he hit the ground running as soon as he landed in Austin.
Last season Hill saw significant playing time in every game. He posted four sacks, 51 tackles, a forced fumble and a total of 19 quarterback pressures according to PFF. His play was good enough to earn him Freshman All-America honors along with being named co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year.
Now in his second season, Hill is one of the key players for Texas. He has already matched his sack total from a year ago and has started every game up to this point. That five-star rating for Hill looks like it was spot on up to this point.
Verdict: Hit
The Patrick Mahomes that everybody saw in high school and college was quite different than what everybody now sees from him with the Kansas City Chiefs. A three-star prospect in the 2014 class, Mahomes signed with Texas Tech and it wasn't long until he was quarterbacking head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense.
In three seasons with the Red Raiders, Mahomes threw for more than 11,000 yards and 93 touchdowns. Despite all that production, Texas Tech wasn't able to fill up the win column as much as they'd like. Regardless, Mahomes had played his way into becoming a first-round pick for the Kansas City Chiefs and head coach Andy Reid.
If he continues on his current trajectory, Mahomes has a chance to legitimately stake a claim as the greatest quarterback of all-time. He already has three Super Bowl wins, three Super Bowl MVP trophies, two NFL MVPs and is a two-time All-Pro.
Again, the Mahomes that played at Whitehouse High School in Texas and earned a three-star rating is not the same player we see on NFL fields today but the rating was obviously a miss.
Verdict: Miss
Pearce’s high school career was disrupted by the pandemic but it hasn't hurt his play at the college level. The North Carolina native got off to a good start during his freshman season at Tennessee. He only played about 60 snaps but was credited with two sacks and a total of six quarterback pressures according to PFF.
Pearce’s second season was really his coming out party. He posted 13 sacks, 11 quarterback hits and 28 quarterback hurries along with two forced fumbles on his way to being named First-Team All-SEC. Pearce hasn't been as prolific this season as he was last year but he is still one of the most feared pass rushers in the country.
Evaluations of Pearce during his high school career were few and far between because of the COVID pandemic. He finished ranked at No. 160 in the Rivals250 but that is certainly too low for a potential first-round pick.
Verdict: Miss
Ward has had a long and winding path to Miami but it will all be worth it if the Hurricanes can make the College Football Playoff and push for a national title. An unrated prospect in the 2020 recruiting class, Ward enrolled at Incarnate Word and made an impact from the first day he was on campus. He found himself in the starting lineup when week three hit and from then on he was off to the races.
After posting 4,650 passing yards to go with 47 touchdown passes during his sophomore year, Ward transferred to Washington State before the 2022 season and didn't miss a beat. In two seasons with the Cougars, Ward threw for nearly 7,000 yards, 48 touchdown passes and ran for over 700 yards to go along with 13 rushing touchdown.
He very nearly entered the NFL Draft this year but decided to play out his final season of eligibility with the Hurricanes. It's looking like a good decision so far. This year the Hurricanes are undefeated and Ward has 20 touchdown passes to go along with over 2,200 passing yards.
Even though Ward was unrated as a high school prospect, he has certainly proven everybody wrong with his play at the college level. Now at his third program, Ward earned a five-star rating as a transfer prospect and is living up to that hype this season.
Verdict: Hit
