Lamar Jackson will be one of NFL Draft's most intriguing storylines
MONDAY: Wyoming's Josh Allen keeps analysts guessing to the end
TUESDAY: Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield has silenced the doubters all his life - can he do it in the NFL?
WEDNESDAY: Sam Darnold is a raw gamer that could have the most upside in the draft
MORE NFL DRAFT: Farrell's final mock draft | Podcast | HS prospects weigh in on who should be No. 1
The wrangling over Lamar Jackson’s future in the NFL could possibly be figured out by a question ESPN college football analyst Kirk Herbstreit answered on a recent conference call about Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley discussing his offense with pro coaches.
“He said, 'The last few years I might have one or two NFL teams come in and pick my brain about my offense. This year I had 28, 29, 30 teams that have come in to try to learn what we’re doing offensively,' " Herbstreit said. "Oklahoma right now sets the bar on play-calling and innovation as far as offense.”
If NFL teams were flocking to Norman, Okla., to talk with Riley about how to implement his style of offense into the league, if pro teams and the game itself is going to change, then perhaps no quarterback is better in this draft than the one from Louisville.
“The guy I’m really excited about is Lamar Jackson,” NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said. “He’s the most spectacular athlete in this draft. Somebody in the first round is going to make a philosophical and schematic commitment to this kid and change what they do offensively. It might not be this year that he makes a significant move but long term, I can’t wait to see what Lamar Jackson becomes."
Jackson could be the most hotly debated quarterback in this NFL Draft, and some have questioned whether the Louisville star can even play that position in the league. All five probable first-rounders - Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, USC’s Sam Darnold, Wyoming’s Josh Allen, UCLA’s Josh Rosen and Jackson - all have their flaws but the Louisville QB has especially been under the microscope.
Essentially, can a dual-threat quarterback without elite passing ability make it in today’s NFL?
The former four-star prospect from Boynton Beach, Fla., won a Heisman Trophy at Louisville, where he threw for 9,043 yards in three seasons with 69 touchdowns and 27 interceptions. He also rushed for 4,132 yards and 50 touchdowns, numbers that are better than Penn State’s Saquon Barkley. Michael Vick famously said that Jackson is, “the spitting image of me,” and that Jackson was, “five times better than I was at Virginia Tech.”
But Jackson completed just 57 percent of his passes with the Cardinals (for two seasons he was at 56 percent or under) and there are questions about whether he can make throws necessary in the NFL - out routes and the deep ball that doesn’t hang for safeties. Also, can Jackson run nearly as much in the NFL as he did at Louisville, a huge part of his repertoire and why he’s such a dangerous quarterback.
“The reason it’s so hard to place him is because his upside is so high, I wonder if somebody is really going to try to get him in the first 10 or 12, 13, 14 picks just because he could be so special," Mayock said. "The flip side to that is if he starts sliding into the 20s, you have all these really good football teams with what I call a secondary quarterback need. They’ve got their primary guy but you start at 17 with Los Angeles and Philip Rivers, New England with Tom Brady, New Orleans with Drew Brees is 39 or whatever he is, Pittsburgh with Ben Roethlisberger, there’s a whole group of secondary need, which I think is the best place for him to go and sit behind one of those Hall of Fame-type quarterbacks and learn to be a pro.”
For ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper, Jr., Allen is his top quarterback even though he only completed 56 percent of his passes at Wyoming. There seems to be a double standard with Kiper’s rationale for not liking Jackson more and being concerned over his low completion percentage, but Kiper’s justification is that the Louisville quarterback made much easier throws where Allen was challenged with lesser receivers and a more pro-style offense.
“It’s the accuracy throwing the football,” Kiper said of Jackson. “He only finished his career around 57 percent so you can throw passes to wide open receivers. I call them 'in the area' throws. You can get away with that in college but not the NFL.
“He’s got talent. I remember Rich Gannon when he came out of Delaware was a similar entity. They said, ‘Great athlete, we can make him a DB or receiver,’ and he developed into a heck of a quarterback. If you give Lamar Jackson some time as a second-round pick there’s a chance he can be an effective starter down the road.
“You always have that fall-back plan with Lamar Jackson, though, because of his athleticism to maybe be a wide receiver. We don’t know if he can do that, we don’t know if he wants to do that, so if you draft him you have to draft him as a quarterback. Wide receiver would be a fall-back plan.”
That does not seem like a viable back-up plan, at this point. Jackson has shown that he has no interest in switching positions, nor should he since it now looks as if a team in the first round will give him a shot at quarterback.
“The most nervous 31 people in the league would be the defensive coordinators that would have to play against him,” Mayock said. “It’s a different kind of commitment and a different kind of philosophy.”
Will an NFL franchise commit to drafting Jackson, knowing that they will have to alter the offense if he’s going to play quarterback? More spread, more designed runs, more of what NFL teams were probably asking Riley about during their meetings in Norman.
Rivals.com National Recruiting Director Mike Farrell does not see NFL teams making that level of commitment - and that’s why he does not see Jackson as valuable as some other quarterbacks in the first round.
“I don’t see superstar,” Farrell said. “I don’t see building an offense around him. That’s just not the way the NFL works. There have been very athletic quarterbacks who have come into the NFL and they’ve all ended up being pocket passers. To some extent, you have to be able to throw from the pocket, you have to be able to read defenses and go through progressions, and I think that’s where he struggles - the accuracy portion and the field vision.
“If you want to build an offense around his running ability, good luck, it’s not going to work. If you want him to be a dynamic superstar who switches positions, good luck, because that hasn’t happened much, either. He’s not a surefire bust. I just don’t think you’re going to win with him right away. He’s going to have to be a guy who goes to the (New Orleans) Saints or somewhere else and sits for three years and teach him how to be a quarterback with patience and the diligence necessary.”
