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When we rank prospects as five-stars here at Rivals.com, we not only expect them to go onto college success, but move onto the NFL and thrive as well. Of course, ranking prospects as teenagers and projecting them years into the future is an inexact science. The same can be said for the NFL Draft.
Every year we keep a close eye on the draft to see how our evaluations pan out. And while 18 of the draft eligible 30 former five-stars were drafted, 12 former elite high school recruits for one reason or another didn’t end up getting selected by any NFL teams.
Here’s a breakdown of the six draft-eligible former offensive five-stars that didn’t hear their names called.
As a recruit: Baldwin committed to Alabama over Ole Miss and never second-guessed his pledge. He also held offers from Georgia, Oklahoma and many others.
In college: Baldwin’s career at Alabama never got off the ground as he was dismissed from the team just a few months after arriving on campus. He then transferred to Kansas, where he spent two seasons but never saw the field. Baldwin finished up his career at Youngstown State, where he started nine of 11 games in 2018.
Now: Baldwin has yet to sign with an NFL team.
Farrell’s take: This is a tough pill to swallow. Baldwin was a film evaluation and had so much upside and such great film he was a no-brainer as a five-star. But it shows how risky it is making JUCO players five stars as he went off to Alabama, quickly fell out of favor and that was it. He was a big boom-or-bust guy and he busted big time. His size will make someone sign him as a free agent but I doubt he sticks in the NFL.
As a recruit: Irwin committed to Stanford over Arizona State a month before signing day in 2015
In college: Irwin was a steady performer from the early going with the Cardinal, playing from his freshman year and increasing his production in each of his four seasons with the program. He capped things off with a solid senior season, catching 60 passes for 685 yards and two touchdowns. Irwin left Stanford as one of the most productive receivers in school history, ranking 10th all-time in receptions with 152 and 12th all-time with 1,738 receiving yards.
Farrell’s take: Irwin chose the wrong school as it was down to Stanford and Arizona State and with N’Keal Harry on the other side of the field, he could have been a star. At Stanford, he was never the primary option and it was a run-first offense, so he put up solid numbers but never broke out. Can he have a productive NFL career? I still think he can because he’s an excellent route runner, but he’ll have to do it the hard way.
As a recruit: On National Signing Day, Ivey chose Florida over Auburn, after a prolonged battle between the two programs for his services.
In college: Ivey stepped right into the lineup with the Gators, starting eight games as a freshman while earning All-SEC freshman honors from the conference’s coaches. Over the next three years, Ivey was a mainstay on the Florida line, and finished his career with 44 career starts. He earned various all-SEC honors every year of his career with Florida.
Now: Ivey will attend rookie mini-camp with the Seattle Seahawks.
Farrell’s take: I was never a huge Ivey fan out of high school and certainly wasn’t the guy who pushed him to five stars, but he still had a ton of talent so it’s surprising to see him get passed over. He played guard and tackle and got better as his career wore on but apparently NFL teams worried about his ability to translate to an NFL player. Perhaps a lack of great footwork or overall athleticism? It’s hard to say, but I think he can be a good NFL player.
As a recruit: Like most elite players from Louisiana, Johnson was high on LSU from the early going, but he still entertained schools from all over the country, eventually committing to the Tigers about a month before Signing Day in 2015. After spending one year in Baton Rouge, he elected to transfer to Oklahoma State, where he sat out 2016 before playing in 2017 and 2018.
In college: His first year on campus with the Tigers, he saw the field quite a bit for a freshman, catching two touchdowns during the 2015 season. After sitting out 2016, Johnson caught 18 passes for 293 yards and two touchdowns in 2017. He had a breakout year in 2018, catching 53 passes for 845 yards and seven touchdowns before deciding to declare early for the draft despite having another year of eligibility remaining.
Now: Johnson signed a free agent contract with the Houston Texans.
Farrell’s take: Johnson should have stayed an extra year and put up monster numbers in the Oklahoma State offense but instead he decided to come out early and it cost him. He’s a dynamic talent and had very good speed and route running ability coming out of high school. He was tough to cover and had a good catch radius so it’s confusing to see him go undrafted.
As a recruit: Patrick burst onto the recruiting scene early in his high school career and entertained offers from many of nation’s top programs. He officially visited Ohio State and Texas A&M but in the end Florida State always seemed to be his top choice and the Seminoles nabbed his commitment in October 2014.
In college: Patrick had to wait his turn to get real action in Tallahassee, sitting behind Dalvin Cook the first two years of his career in Tallahassee. During that time, he had 674 yards and nine touchdowns, while averaging more than five yards per carry. Expected to breakout in 2017, Patrick suffered during Jimbo Fisher’s forgettable last season with the Seminoles, putting up 748 yards and seven touchdowns while also catching 21 passes for 171 yards. In 2018, Patrick took more of a backup role behind former five-star Cam Akers, rushing 108 times for 378 yards while also recording 102 receiving yards.
Now: Patrick has yet to sign with an NFL team.
Farrell’s take: Patrick had a ton of talent coming out of high school and even dominated as a pass-catcher, so we thought his versatility would make him a star at the next level. He just never got on track at FSU because he was behind Cook and never broke out during the coaching change. Now he’s a free agent who is unlikely to make an NFL roster, which is shocking.
As a recruit: Prince had a national recruitment that came down to Signing Day when he elected to stay close to home and sign with Maryland over Florida, Florida State, South Carolina and others.
In college: After redshirting as a freshman, Prince started 39 career games over the next four years, including nine in 2018. Prince graded out as one of the best pass blocking tackles in the Big Ten, according to Pro Football Focus, but his solid college career wasn’t enough for him to impress NFL teams enough to be drafted.
Now: Prince signed a free agent contract with the Indianapolis Colts.
Farrell’s take: This is puzzling to me especially as I was the one who pushed Prince to five stars. He had great size, good feet and he was aggressive and nasty. When I first saw him as a sophomore, I thought he was very intriguing and then after that I thought he was a can’t-miss kid. He could still land somewhere in the NFL, but it’s odd he never had the college career I expected.
