Published Oct 8, 2015
Inside the Numbers: Beyond the Power Five
Josh Helmholdt
Recruiting Analyst
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Toledo coach Matt Campbell
With a win over then-No. 18 Arkansas on their resume, the Toledo Rockets debuted in the Associated Press Top 25 this week. The highest-ranked non-Power Five school, Toledo now will finish out its 2015 regular-season schedule with seven Mid-American Conference games and a chance at a perfect record.
As one of only two Group of Five schools in the AP Top 25, Toledo, not surprisingly, has the lowest ranked recruiting class in the group at No. 66. Within the MAC, though, it ranks second only to Western Michigan. The class is highlighted by four three-stars, including three from its home state of Ohio.
16.1
Average number of 2016 commits for Power 5 schools
Four months still remain before National Signing Day, but most Power Five schools have the bulk of their spots in the 2016 class taken. While this number represents all Power Five schools, the top 20 schools have an even greater number of commits at 18.9 per class.
This number highlights the ever-decreasing importance of high school senior seasons. A total of 145 of the Rivals 250 had already rendered their decisions before Sept. 1. That number has risen to 162 - or 64.8 percent - currently. Of the 1,829 prospects in the Rivals.com database that list Power Five offers, 57.1 percent have already made their college commitments.
22.8
Average Power Five class size in 2015
Comparing this number to the preceding number, the average Power Five school only has six to seven additional spots remaining in its 2016 class. NCAA rules allow for 25 first-year players to be on the roster when a season opens. Overall, though, FBS schools cannot have more than 85 scholarship players on the roster at any given time and that number, more than the freshman number, is why most teams sign fewer than 25 in a recruiting class.
This, though, is where Group of Five teams can decrease the talent disparity between themselves and Power Five programs. Although Division I caliber prospects are undoubtedly developing earlier in their careers, there are those who do not emerge, or who vastly improve their stock, during their senior seasons. The Group of Five's average current class size is just 10.4, meaning they have double the spots available per school than their Power Five counterparts and can better take advantage of late-developing or emerging talent.
89
Lowest-ranked Power Five 2016 recruiting class
Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads
After reeling in its state's top prospect in back-to-back classes -- Rivals250 offensive tackle Jake Campos in 2013 and Rivals100 wide receiver Allen Lazard in 2014 -- it looked as if Iowa State was beginning to turn the corner after a stretch that had only seen one winning season in the previous nine years.
Paul Rhoads and his staff have not been able to maintain the momentum, however, and after signing the No. 69 class in 2015, the Cyclones are fading quickly and barely inside the top 90 for 2016. Just nine prospects have committed to Iowa State in this cycle, the majority being two-stars. Only one of those nine commitments is from an in-state prospect, and when the backyard talent pool is drying up, the prospects for a bright future fade.
Josh Helmholdt
Midwest Recruiting Analyst
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