If I Were A Betting Man: Week 8 picks

MORE: Betting Man Week 7 | Commitment Issues Podcast

The helmets are going to look extra shiny under NBC’s lights. Touchdown Jesus will be spiffed up across from the football stadium. A few extra candles will surely be lit in the grotto. Notre Dame has a big game on Saturday night as No. 11 USC comes to South Bend.

The problem with big games and Notre Dame is, well, Notre Dame has not played big in recent years. Starting with that 42-14 undressing in the national championship game against Alabama to wrap up the 2012 season, ND is 2-12 against top 20 teams. One of those wins required a fourth-and-11 touchdown pass with 1:01 to play to beat Stanford in 2014. The other was an eight-point win in Sept. 2015 over a Georgia Tech team that would go on to finish 3-9.

There have been some close, exciting losses, such as at Florida State in 2014, and at Clemson and Stanford in 2015. But mostly, ND has not come through, something Irish fans point out when debating Brian Kelly’s job security.

So, credit the Irish for building a 5-1 record (losing to then-No. 15 Georgia). But the real season starts now, with No. 11 USC, No. 16 NC State, No. 8 Miami and No. 22 Stanford still on the docket. Their next chance to play big in a big game comes Saturday.

The lines listed are from Covers.com.

Week 7 record: 3-2

Week 7 net payout: + $40

Season record: 18-17

Season net payout: -$45

I don’t really believe in the Irish yet. They rank No. 116 in passer rating and four of their five wins are against weak competition. The question is, do I believe in USC? A one-point win over Utah, an overtime win vs. Texas, a loss to Wazzu. The fact that USC is only No. 61 in rushing defense, plus ND having a bye week and home field advantage, gives the Irish the slight edge and a chance to overcome its recent big- game woes.

The bet: $50 on Notre Dame to win (-85)

You’ve got two top 10 defenses slugging it out, and you have one bad offense wearing maize and blue. If Michigan holds Penn State to 27 points or less and Penn State holds Michigan to 17 points or less, the under is a winner. It will be a great setting, great uniforms and there will be few points.

The bet: $100 on the under

I am 1-5 on teases for the season, but I’m going back to the well one more time. Syracuse’s win over Clemson was clearly a shocker, but the Orange have been improving and boast a top 40 offense and defense. Miami needed a bobbling fourth-down catch to rally past Georgia Tech, one week after it rallied past Florida State. Bump this one up to 21.5 and the Orange easily cover that number. On the other side, UCF's closest win this season was a 28-pointer at Maryland. Knock it down to 1.5 and the Golden Knights dismiss spunky Navy.

The bet: $150 tease on Syracuse (+21.5) and UCF (-1.5)

As bad as I’ve fared on teases this year, I’m 8-0 on the money line when taking the favorite and 2-3 when taking the underdog (with the higher payoff). Indiana put up a decent fight against Ohio State in the opener and took Michigan to overtime at home last week, but winning in East Lansing is going to be too much. The Spartans have beaten the Hoosiers by an average of 29.3 points in their last four meetings in Spartan Stadium.

The bet: $100 on Michigan State to win (-255)

Sure, OU has lost as a double-digit favorite seven seasons in a row, but Iowa State already took care of extending that streak. Baker Mayfield is not letting it happen again, especially against a meddling Kansas State squad whose best win this season is Baylor.

The bet: $100 on Oklahoma to win (-570)