Published Sep 25, 2020
If I Were A Betting Man: Week 4 Picks
Bill Trocchi  •  Rivals.com
Staff

The SEC knows branding. It knows how to market itself. It knows how to sell.

You know the slogan. ‘It just means more’, which has been widely panned yet every SEC fan secretly LOVES it.

Well, against some odds, SEC football returns to some of college football’s hallowed cathedrals this weekend. And when the SEC league office re-issued the schedules on Aug. 18, it gave us, um, not much for the big reopening.

We all want to see Georgia and its new QB, right? It will be at Arkansas as a 26-point favorite. How about Alabama and its host of five-stars? The Tide are a 27-point road favorite at Missouri. The defending national champs? LSU is a 16.5-point favorite against Mississippi State. Florida is giving two touchdowns at Ole Miss.

Hey, I get the whole appetizer-before-the-meal concept, but there’s also something to opening with a bang, especially with the national college scene severely lacking in quality matchups the first two weeks. Eventually, we’ll have Alabama-Georgia, Florida-LSU, Auburn-Tennessee and the usual rivalries that make the SEC what it is. Couldn’t we at least have one this week?

OK, enough whining. The esteemed publisher of UGASports.com Radi Nabulsi, who knows the SEC inside and out, will try to pull the publishers out of a modest last place hole this week. For the analysts, Chad Simmons will reluctantly take his eyes off the high school fields for a few moments and give his predictions on the week ahead.

Off we go.

Spreads are from Covers.com. All games are on Saturday unless noted and times are ET.

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*****

No. 23 Kentucky (+7.5) at No. 8 Auburn, noon, SEC Network

The Joey Gatewood Bowl. The former Auburn quarterback transferred to Kentucky and participated in the spring, but is still waiting to see if he’s eligible after applying for a waiver. The rumor is the SEC will clear him after UK plays his former team, though Kentucky coach Mark Stoops denied such a ‘gentleman’s agreement’ is in place. Terry Wilson, who is 12-3 as a starter, appears to be QB1 after missing nearly all of last year due to injury. Auburn lost a lot from last year’s 9-4 team, but sophomore Bo Nix is back at QB. Kentucky might not get the win, but has enough to stay within a touchdown.

Trocchi’s pick: Kentucky, $75

Nabulsi: Kentucky

Simmons: Kentucky

*****

No. 24 Louisville (+2.5) at No. 21 Pittsburgh, noon, ACC Network

Pittsburgh was quite sloppy in a 21-10 win over Syracuse, but its imposing defense showed up again and is ranked No. 1 among the 29 teams that have played at least two games. The Panthers will be challenged by a Louisville offense that almost quietly put up 516 yards and 34 points against Miami. If you are a fan of those cool blue-and-yellow Pitt uniforms, you aren’t going to find them in this game — Pitt is honoring the steel industry by wearing some black, silver and gold get-up that will looking nothing like Pitt but will surely drive the cardboard cutout fans at Heinz Field wild.

Trocchi’s pick: Louisville, $50

Nabulsi: Pittsburgh

Simmons: Louisville

*****

West Virginia (+8.5) at No. 15 Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders turned his ankle early against Tulsa, and the offense was pedestrian the rest of the way in a 16-7 win. Sanders was in a boot early in the week but seems likely to play Saturday. The Cowboys’ sluggish performance has pushed this line lower than it should be. I still believe in the Cowboys.

Trocchi’s pick: Oklahoma State, $100

Nabulsi: West Virginia

Simmons: Oklahoma State

*****

Florida State (+11.5) at No. 12 Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC

A bumpy debut season for Florida State coach Mike Norvell got bumpier when he tested positive for COVID-19, forcing him to watch Saturday’s rivalry game against Miami from his home. After being called a liar by his best player over the summer, then losing to a Georgia Tech team that went 3-9 last season while carrying a No. 34 national recruiting ranking for 2021, this is another cherry on top of his 2020 sundae. Oh, and Miami looks really, really good thus far,.

Trocchi’s pick: Miami, $50

Nabulsi: Miami

Simmons: Florida State

*****

No. 16 Tennessee (-3.5) at South Carolina, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network

South Carolina will be rolling out Colorado State transfer Collin Hill at QB after he beat out incumbent Ryan Hilinski during fall camp. Hill played for new offensive coordinator Mike Bobo at CSU and that experience seems to have pushed him past Hilinski. Tennessee turned its season around last year at the expense of the Gamecocks, as its 41-21 win over South Carolina sparked a season-closing six-game win streak. That game also ended a seven-game streak in the series of games decided by less than a touchdown.

Trocchi’s pick: Tennessee, $50

Nabulsi: Tennessee

Simmons: Tennessee

Week 4 picks
Kentucky-AuburnWVU-Okla. St.Louisville- PittFSU-MiamiTenn. - USC

Trocchi

Kentucky

Okla St.

Louisville

Miami

Tenn.

Nabulsi

Kentucky

WVU

Pitt

Miami

Tenn.

Simmons

Kentucky

Okla St.

Louisville

FSU

Tenn.

Season Standings

Trocchi: 4-5, minus $175

Analysts: 4-5

Publishers: 3-6

When there is a unanimous selection: 0-2