If I Were A Betting Man: Week 4 picks

With ESPN’s College Gameday headed to Times Square on Saturday, the crew might want to walk a few blocks to the Richard Rodgers Theatre when looking for Week 4’s theme. As Alexander Hamilton barks out in Act 1 of the renowned musical Hamilton, ‘I’m young, scrappy and hungry. And I’m not throwing away my shot!’

Three historically overshadowed, under-the-radar Power Five programs will get their shot on the big stage and a chance to prove how legitimate their fast starts are to the 2016 season. Cal, Vanderbilt and Purdue have all been pleasant surprises, and all have hyped home games against some of the nameiest name-brands in the sport. USC will visit Cal, Alabama goes to Vanderbilt and Michigan comes to Purdue.

It is the overachieving Little Guy trying to defend his home turf against the Big Bad Bully. Times three. Can any of them pull it off? Cal and Purdue have a chance, while Vanderbilt faces very long odds (Nick Saban is 49-2 as a double-digit favorite in SEC games).

Hamilton says, ‘The plan is to fan this spark into a flame.’ Cal, Vandy and Purdue will get their shot on Saturday.

The lines listed are from Covers.com.

Week 3 record: 3-2

Week 3 net payout: +$235

Season record: 6-8

Season payout: -$130

Wake Forest is another pleasant surprise this season, as Mike Farrell pointed out this week. The Deacons have won all three games by at least 24 points and have covered seven of their last eight games dating back to last season. Appalachian State is coming off a disappointing seven-point win over Texas State and wasn’t all that competitive with Georgia in Week 1. Wake Forest easily moves to 4-0.

The Bet: $150 on Wake Forest to cover

Duke is another team the betting public hasn’t quite caught up with yet. The Blue Devils have three comfortable wins under their belts and are primed to make it two-straight against its rival. Duke QB Daniel Jones is the real deal, and the Devils showed they can run when necessary with 246 yards on the ground against Baylor. North Carolina lost to Cal and Louisville to open the season, then blitzed Old Dominion. UNC is averaging 39.3 points per game, despite the two losses, so the over is attractive in this one as well.

The Bet: $100 on Duke to cover; $50 on the over

USC quarterback Sam Darnold has mixed in a little Blake Bortles to go along with his occasional Aaron Rodgers (did you see that jump pass?). He has six interceptions in three games and will be facing a Cal defense that has forced nine turnovers. USC has looked shaky in two out of three weeks, and a letdown after the emotional Texas win would not be a total surprise.

The Bet: $50 on Cal to win (+600)

I’m determined to get a tease right. I’m 0-3 through 3 weeks. I’m headed to the SEC, where I like Starkville’s Bulldogs to put up a very good fight against the Athens Bulldogs. Give me the extra six points there. Also, if you bump up the Missouri-Auburn spread, Auburn's Tigers will be forced to cover 25.5 points with an offense that scored 24 points against Mercer. I’ve got to get a tease right this season. Right?

The Bet: $50 tease on Mississippi State +10.5; Missouri +25.5