If I Were A Betting Man: Week 13 picks

You want a reminder just how dialed in Vegas can be?

Last week, UMass visited Northwestern in what was a truly unpredictable something’s-gotta-give game. Entering the matchup, the Minutemen were giving up an astounding 53.1 points per game. Northwestern’s anemic offense was scoring 11.1 points per game.

So what to do? The line fluctuated all week between 38 and 41 and settled most places around 39. On the surface, this number was absolutely crazy, given that Northwestern had not scored over 30 points in any game and literally went over a month between touchdowns at one point.

And yet thanks in part to a touchdown off a blocked field goal attempt, Northwestern poured it on in the fourth with 21 points and built a 45-6 lead late. UMass drove to the Northwestern 6-yard line in the final seconds, but then decided not to go for the last-second TD and just let the clock expire, creating a push for one of the season’s most interesting lines. Yep, those guys know how to set the lines.

Playing against those lines this week will be Scott Greene from TerrapinSportsReport.com, who has seen Maryland match up against the four Big Ten teams on our slate this week. Representing the analysts is California-based Adam Gorney, who should have extra insight on our Pac-12 matchup.

Off we go.

All games Saturday and ET. Point spreads are from Covers.com.

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MORE: Will Ohio State blow out Penn State?

CLASS OF 2020 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Position | Team | State

CLASS OF 2021 RANKINGS: Rivals100 | Position | Team | State

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Easily the game of the weekend, and strangely it kicks off at noon (date night on Saturday!). Ohio State has won every game by at least 24 points and is 8-2 against the spread, including 4-0 when the spread is in the teens. It really hasn’t mattered -- home, road, day or night, the Buckeyes have been a steamroller. Penn State has covered the last three of these matchups, with all three being last-minute nail-biters, but with Chase Young back and ready to harass PSU QB Sean Clifford, give me Brutus once again.

Trocchi’s pick: Ohio State, $100

Greene: Penn State

Gorney: Penn State

Michigan appears to have its act together, covering four straight weeks and six of seven since that disastrous performance at Wisconsin. Quarterback Shea Patterson had his best game as a Wolverine against Michigan State. Indiana, meanwhile, has to play its second straight top 15 opponent after a soft schedule allowed it to start 7-2. The Hoosiers put up a good fight against Penn State, but trying to go back-to-back might be too much.

Trocchi’s pick: Michigan, $100

Greene: Indiana

Gorney: Michigan

Both squads have a little soap opera attached to them. Where is the Texas program at this point? It is an underdog against Baylor, after being an underdog against Iowa State and TCU. Being a dog to Oklahoma is one thing. But three other Big 12 teams? Yuck. Baylor, on the other hand, pulled a Super Bowl Falcons and fritted away a 28-3 lead against Oklahoma. An epic victory and celebration evaporated. Will the Bears be able to recover? My guess is no.

Trocchi’s pick: Texas, $100

Greene: Baylor

Gorney: Baylor

Sneaky good game here. Both teams are alive for the ACC Coastal title (and a date with Clemson), with a Virginia Tech win setting up a winner-take-all next week between the Hokies and Virginia. A Pitt win keeps it alive another week. Virginia Tech has won five of six, the lone loss being a one-pointer at Notre Dame. Pitt has won six of seven, with six of those games being decided by one score or less. Virginia Tech just feels like it is playing better at this point.

Trocchi’s pick: Virginia Tech, $50

Greene: Virginia Tech

Gorney: Virginia Tech

How great was it last week when Herm Edwards essentially dusted off his ‘You play to win the game’ quote after he went for two trailing by one in the final minutes against Oregon State? It didn’t work, and now Arizona State has lost four straight and hasn’t led in any of those games. Oregon knows it is right in the thick of the playoff hunt and should be super focused. Everything says Oregon, but I can’t shake the feeling that the Ducks are going to struggle in the desert.

Trocchi’s pick: Arizona State, $50

Greene: Oregon

Gorney: Arizona State

One team (Tennessee) has won four out of five and seems to have turned its season around. The other team (Missouri) has lost four in a row and is averaging fewer than seven points per game during that stretch. Yet the team on the losing streak is favored? Give me the Vols to continue their late-season surge.

Trocchi’s pick: Tennessee, $200

Season Statistics:

Analysts: 32-28

Trocchi: 30-30

Publishers: 29-31

When there is a unanimous selection: 9-8

Trocchi’s overall stats:

37-34, plus $350