I tried.

I promise, loyal readers of the Betting Man. I tried to find a trend for you in advance of the Clemson-Notre Dame showdown, where the No. 4 Irish will host the No. 1 Tigers on Saturday night. I looked at all top five regular season matchups of the last five seasons for a betting trend, or even a non-betting trend. Here’s what I came up with.

In the seven top five regular-season matchups since 2016, the favorite is 3-4 against the spread and 4-3 straight up. Home dogs are 1-1. The higher-ranked team is 4-3 against the spread. Home teams are 3-3 straight up (there was one neutral site matchup). The only number slightly resembling a trend? The No. 1 team is 2-0 straight up and against the spread, with one of those games being a road game and the other a neutral site.

Even the blowout/non-blowout ratio is about split, with three games decided by six or less, while the other four were decided by 15-plus points. There’s been some heart-stoppers (Michigan’s near-miss in double-overtime against Ohio State in 2016) and duds (2018: Alabama 29, LSU 0).

All that to say, be prepared for anything to happen Saturday night in South Bend. But in 2020, we’re pretty much used to that.

Kelly Quinlan of JacketsOnline.com will be representing the Rivals publishers this week with Georgia Tech being the only team that has played both Clemson and Notre Dame this season. He will be joined by Rivals national recruiting director Mike Farrell in a week where we have one game from each Power Five conference for the first time this season.

Off we go.

Spreads are from Covers.com. All games are on Saturday unless noted and times are ET.

Welcome back to the league of beautiful weather and (mostly) beautiful uniforms. Arizona State’s pre-game meal is slated for 4:45 a.m., which is OK because I’m guessing Herm Edwards is usually into his second cup of coffee by then anyway. The two best QBs in the Pac-12 will be on display, after they didn’t match up last year as ASU’s Jayden Daniels missed the 31-26 loss to the Trojans with an injury. USC should get the win, but the Sun Devils can keep it close enough to cover.

Trocchi’s pick: Arizona State, $100

Quinlan: USC

Farrell: Arizona State

I’m just not onboard the Indiana train yet. It was very lucky to beat Penn State and it beat Rutgers. The Hoosiers are 95th in the nation in offense. And I’m not ready to kill Jim Harbaugh and Michigan, either. Seems like other teams get passes when they get upset, which the Wolverines rarely do. Their problem is against top 10 teams. Indiana is not a top 10 team. I don’t love Michigan QB Joe Milton like some people did after his first game, but he will have enough to beat the Hoosiers.

Trocchi’s pick: Michigan, $100

Quinlan: Indiana

Farrell: Indiana

I’l just throw this out there — Florida coach Dan Mullen should have been suspended from this game. A fine is not a deterrent to running out and instigating a brawl when your quarterback gets hit late. Who is going to be the next coach to ‘rally his fan base’ with this undisciplined behavior? It’s gonna happen. As far as this one, we have a matchup of two two-star QBs leading top 10 teams, something we may not see again for a decade or more. This is the third straight Cocktail Party where both teams were in the top 10. The only other three times in the storied history of this rivalry where both teams were in the top 10 were in 1976, 1983 and 1984. Georgia is down three starters on defense, which pushes this one into the Gators’ column.

Trocchi’s pick: Florida, $100

Quinlan: Florida

Farrell: Florida

I’ve been a big backer of the Cowboys all season, and last week’s overtime loss to Texas doesn’t really deter me. Oklahoma State outgained Texas 530-287 but was minus-four in the turnover department. Meanwhile, Kansas State has dipped from 382 yards per game to 298 yards per game since starting QB Skylar Thompson was lost to injury. The Cowboys are going to smother the Wildcats and take back control of the Big 12 race.

Trocchi’s pick: Oklahoma State, $100

Quinlan: Oklahoma State

Farrell: Oklahoma State

More numbers to ponder with the Irish on the big stage — ND is 1-18 vs. top five teams since 1999. More relevant — Notre Dame’s 2020 undefeated record has come against teams with a combined record of 12-28.The Irish have played absolutely no one, while Clemson has faced tests against Miami and Boston College. So while ND’s defense has been stellar, allowing just three red zone trips in three games, it hasn’t seen anything resembling what it will see Saturday, even with no Trevor Lawrence. Can the Irish keep the Tigers below 30? It’s gonna be hard. Can the Irish score 30? Probably not. Round 1 of a possible two-round fight goes to Clemson.

Trocchi’s pick: Clemson, $50

Quinlan: Clemson

Farrell: Clemson

Season Standings

Trocchi: 21-17-1, minus $50

Publishers: 18-20-1

Analysts: 14-24-1

When there is a unanimous pick: 5-7-1