If I Were A Betting Man: Week 1 picks

Week Zero was great. Florida-Miami was tense, close and had several game-changing moments. It was wonderfully sloppy and captivating and must-see TV (did you see the ratings?). Hawaii and Arizona followed that up with a 45-38 thriller that featured seven TD passes, six interceptions and losing QB Khalil Tate getting tackled on the Hawaii 1-yard line on the game’s final play.

Now, Week 1 is here, and it pretty much should be named Weak 1. Despite five nights worth of games from Thursday through Monday, there is only one game with two top-25 teams. Last year, there were four, in 2017 three (including a top five matchup) and 2016 had four (plus Notre Dame at Texas, LSU at Wisconsin, Clemson at Auburn and UCLA at Texas A&M).

Finding five intriguing games to throw my imaginary cash down on this week was difficult, but not impossible. After all, we waited eight months for these games.

Similar to last season, we are going to invite two guest pickers to make selections against the spread. One will be a publisher in the Rivals network who will have some connection to the slate of games. The other will be a Rivals analyst. Joining us for Week 1 is Corey Bender, publisher of GatorTerritory.com. Florida will face four of the teams involved in our five games, so his insights will be appreciated. Our guest analyst will be Rob Cassidy, who knows his way around betting lines.

Off we go.

Spreads are from Covers.com All games are on Saturday unless noted and times are ET.

CLASS OF 2020 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Position | Team | State

CLASS OF 2021 RANKINGS: Rivals100 | Position | Team | State

The Tar Heels certainly have some buzziness about them considering they were 2-9 a year ago. Mack Brown, one of five current coaches with a national title, makes his return and prepares to open the season with a true freshman at QB for the first time in school history. Contrast that with Jake Bentley, who will be playing in his 33rd game under center for South Carolina. Pre-game hype goes to North Carolina. Actual game goes to South Carolina.

Trocchi’s pick: $75 on South Carolina -9.5

Bender: South Carolina

Cassidy: South Carolina

Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is trying to be tricky, not naming a starting quarterback. Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson and fifth-year senior T.J. Green apparently battled to a draw in preseason camp. The Wildcats have been slow starters the past two years, but even with a mystery quarterback, I like their defense to keep it close enough to cover.

Trocchi’s pick: $100 on Northwestern +6.5

Bender: Stanford

Cassidy: Northwestern

This one will be dissected all week after the Pac-12 tries to make a playoff statement against, what, the fourth or fifth best team in the SEC? Anyway, let’s go back to the last time these two met, when Auburn won the national championship thanks to one of the flukier clutch plays you will ever see.

Trocchi’s pick: $100 on Auburn -3.5

Bender: Oregon

Cassidy: Auburn

How to make this one sound exciting: Defending ACC Coastal champs (Pitt) take on media’s pick as this year’s ACC Coastal favorite (Virginia). How to make this sound less exciting: Teams that combined for 12 losses last year open ACC play. Programming note: Virginia QB Bryce Perkins piled up 34 touchdowns last year and is a worthy watch.

Trocchi’s pick: $150 on Virginia -2.5

Bender: Virginia

Cassidy: Virginia

Kirby Smart is telling his Georgia team to embrace expectations. It can also embrace the concept of playing a shaky team on opening weekend. The Commodores are going to be flirting with bowl eligibility this year if it gets adequate quarterback play, but that doesn’t mean they can hang with the only team that can legitimately say is poses a threat to Clemson-Alabama IV.

Trocchi’s pick: $100 on Georgia -21

Bender: Georgia

Cassidy: Vanderbilt

I went 3-8 last year in my ‘One More That I Like’ category, so be wary. Twenty points may seem rather steep for a road opener in what will be a center-stage game on Monday night, but Notre Dame will really have to struggle not to beat Louisville by more than 20. The Cardinals lost by 20 or more eight times last season, then brought in coach Scott Satterfield and a recruiting class ranked No. 77 in the nation. The Irish have a few injuries, but they may have this spread covered by halftime.

Trocchi’s pick: $200 on Notre Dame -20

Trocchi: 42-33-1

Analysts: 41-34-1

Publishers: 34-41-1

Trocchi’s Season Stats

45-42-1, minus $330*

* - Washington’s crazy backdoor Rose Bowl cover kept me out of the black for the season.