If I Were A Betting Man: Bowl picks

MORE BOWL PICKS: Against the Spread

Bowl games ain’t easy to predict. How teams, and specifically players, approach the monthlong process of preparing is one of the more unpredictable things in sports. Alabama has 36 off days before playing Clemson. How is that going to feel like anything resembling a normal game?

In the first five bowl games of this bowl season, the underdog pulled the upset in four of them. Last year, there were 15 upsets in 40 bowl games, including the national title game. With an entire season of data points, oddsmakers should not be fooled to that extent. But the huge break and different travel distances make for a cloudy forecast.

Nevertheless, coming off a big rally on championship weekend, I will try to finish the season in the positives.

Week 14 record: 6-1

Week 14 payout: + $335

Season record: 40-33

Season payout: + $195

Note: The lines listed are from Covers.com/All times Eastern

This one falls into the ‘Who’s happy to be here?’ category. USC knew it wasn’t going to the playoff, so landing a Cotton Bowl bid after winning the Pac-12 championship game is fine and dandy. Ohio State, on the other hand, will NEVER believe it should not have been in the playoff, no matter how many times the players say ‘We’re over it’ in the weeks leading into the Cotton Bowl. Sam Darnold played the game of his life in last year’s Rose Bowl against Penn State, and he’s due for another special performance against the Buckeyes.

The bet: $50 on USC to win (+130)

According to Covers.com, teams that traveled fewer miles to bowl games last year went 29-12 (22-19 ATS). The Canes are on their home field, and they have been a vastly different team at home vs. on the road. A New Year’s Eve kickoff in Miami? The ‘U’ will be hyped, and that has usually spelled trouble for opponents this season.

The bet: $50 on Miami to win (+110)

Another motivation game. Auburn is returning to the same building it just suffered a devastating loss in for the SEC championship. UCF, on the other hand, can cap an undefeated season and drench departing coach Scott Frost one more time. This matchup reminds me of the Florida State-Houston Peach Bowl two years ago, when the Group of Five team humbled the disappointed name-brand team during an early kickoff in Atlanta.

The bet: $100 on UCF to cover

Notre Dame closed the season with three down performances - a blowout loss at Miami, a narrow home loss to Navy and a loss at Stanford that turned into a runaway in the fourth quarter. Brandon Winbush has simply not improved as a passer to make Notre Dame truly elite. LSU has its own quarterback problems, but it finished the year with three 20-plus-point wins after a 14-point loss at Alabama. LSU is playing better, and Notre Dame carries a nine-game January bowl game losing streak into the matchup.

The bet: $50 on LSU to win (-75)