Hot seat rankings: Coaches on shaky ground entering 2017

The regular season is over and there has been plenty of coaching openings and changes in the past few weeks. Here is a list of 10 coaches who simply did not get the job done this season and could be facing the hot seat heading into next year.

MORE: Farrell's Big Ten coaching grades | Florida's FBS schools led by elite recruiters

Overview: Kelly described this season as a nightmare, and that might have been too kind of a word for it. Much of it was his doing, too. Notre Dame finished 4-8, the worst season in Kelly’s coaching career, he fired his defensive coordinator in late September and then publicly called out his center for “atrocious” snapping in a 10-3 loss at N.C. State. That game was played in Hurricane Matthew and the Irish inexplicably threw 26 times. On top of that, the NCAA recently announced the Irish must vacate, pending appeal, 21 wins from the 2012 and 2013 seasons because of an academic scandal.

Farrell’s Take: Kelly’s overall success at Notre Dame is what has given him at least another year (that and the buyout), but he will need a big bounceback year to keep his job. Breaking in a new quarterback won’t help things, and the rumors about his job search at the end of the season only made his seat hotter. I’ve said that there isn’t a ton of talent on this roster due to some odd recruiting decisions, so can he turn it around? I don’t think he makes it past next season.

Hot Seat Status: Inferno

Overview: The Sun Devils lost their final six games this season, many of them blowouts, including a 56-35 decision to in-state rival Arizona to finally end a miserable season. Arizona State’s defense was atrocious, allowing nearly 40 points per outing and 33 passing touchdowns on the season. After back-to-back 10-win seasons for Graham, it looked like ASU was becoming a Pac-12 contender. Then the Sun Devils finished 6-7 last year and 5-7 this season.

Farrell’s Take: It’s been a steady decline for the Sun Devils and the defense has been the biggest issue. Quarterback play hasn’t helped, either, but unless the defense is fixed it will be another losing season next year for ASU and Graham could be on his way out. He survives next season, however.

Hot Seat Status: High Heat

Overview: Mora suffered his first losing season at UCLA, a 4-8 debacle where the Bruins averaged 24.9 points per game and lost six of their last seven games. Star quarterback Josh Rosen was sidelined after six games with an injury, but the Bruins lost handily to rival USC and then looked completely checked out in a 36-10 decision to Cal to end the season. After two 10-win seasons, UCLA finished 8-5 and 4-8 in its last two years.

Farrell’s Take: Mora will need to get back to eight wins at least to stay on board, but with a healthy Rosen that could happen. The Bruins gave up when Rosen went down but if he has a great year next season as expected, Mora will be fine and the ship will be righted. He makes it beyond 2017.

Hot Seat Status: High Heat

Overview: This was supposed to be Tennessee’s year to make a run at the College Football Playoff. Instead, after a promising 5-0 start, Tennessee lost three straight, to Texas A&M, Alabama and South Carolina, and finished the regular season by losing at Vanderbilt by double digits. Jones is 29-21 overall in four seasons in Knoxville, and even more worrisome is the fact that the Vols are 14-18 in SEC play during that time. The one positive? Tennessee beat Florida for the first time in more than a decade.

Farrell’s Take: Injuries took their toll on the Vols this season. There is talent on the roster, so it will be interesting to see if he can finally break through and win the SEC East next season. If he doesn’t, the pressure from fans and alumni will be too much for him to survive. The expectations in Knoxville are always sky high, and with Jones' recruiting success early, most expected a division title by now. If Georgia, Florida or someone else wins the East next year, he’s gone.

Hot Seat Status: High Heat

Overview: Because of an ongoing NCAA investigation that could lead to additional sanctions and obvious recruiting implications, Freeze has to be considered on the hot seat depending on how bad this situation gets. By some accounts, there looks to be pretty egregious violations. On the field, after a 10-win season and a victory in the Sugar Bowl in 2015, the Rebels collapsed to 5-7 and lost by 21 to Vanderbilt and 35 to rival Mississippi State to end the season.

Farrell’s Take: This is an interesting one because Freeze has had success on and off the field, Shea Patterson could be a special quarterback and there is a lot of young talent. However, the SEC West is insanely competitive every season and finishing last again, coupled with any additional NCAA sanctions, could seal his fate. But Freeze will survive the storm beyond 2017.

Hot Seat Status: High Heat

Overview: Sumlin entered this season on the hot seat and then seemed to get off it after a 7-1 start. But the Aggies fell apart down the stretch and now there are questions again about his future in College Station. Texas A&M lost three of its last four games (its only win in that stretch was over UTSA), including a 54-39 decision to LSU to close out the regular season. After going 11-2 and 9-4 in his first two seasons, the Aggies won eight games the last two years and have eight wins heading into their bowl game against Kansas State.

Farrell’s Take: Sumlin is always on the hot seat, it appears, and that’s life in the SEC West when you start strong and finish poorly for a few years. The Aggies have talent and they should have a good year next season, but it needs to be more consistent for Sumlin to survive. I don’t see them firing him if he wins eight games again next year unless it comes with another late-season collapse. He survives 2017.

Hot Seat Status: High Heat

Overview: After a tremendous coaching career at Wisconsin, which saw Bielema go 68-24, it was another average season for the outspoken coach in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks went 7-5, winning and then losing a game every other week for almost the entire season. A 56-3 loss to Auburn was embarrassing. The Razorbacks also lost by 28 to Ole Miss and fell to Missouri, 28-24, to finish the regular season. Bielema is 25-25 in four seasons at Arkansas and 10-22 in SEC play.

Farrell’s Take: The SEC record isn’t good and the inconsistency from week to week of the program is maddening to fans. I don’t see Arkansas having a big year next year with Alabama, Auburn, LSU and A&M all better off when it comes to talent, so I don’t think he survives the season.

Hot Seat Status: High Heat

Overview: This was a bad, frustrating, miserable season for the Wildcats, who went 3-9, couldn’t seem to score points for long stretches and absolutely could not stop any teams on defense in many blowout losses. Arizona’s three wins this season came against Grambling, Hawaii and in the regular-season finale against Arizona State. This is the first losing season for Rodriguez in Tucson, but after a 10-4 campaign in 2014 the Wildcats have slid quickly.

Farrell’s Take: The quick slide means that Rich Rod has some equity built up and is just a few years removed from a New Year’s Six Bowl, so he can right the ship even with a 7-5 year next season. It would be a heck of a turnaround because the Wildcats were so bad, but he can pull it off.

Hot Seat Status: Slightly Sweaty

Overview: During two stretches in 2016, the Red Raiders lost three straight. Plus, the defense showed no ability to stop many teams consistently throughout the season. It’s true that Texas Tech averaged 43.7 points per game and Kingsbury is a special offensive mind, but the defense allowed 43.5 and teams cannot be successful that way. Kingsbury is a legend in Lubbock, but he’s 24-26 in four seasons and 13-23 in the Big 12.

Farrell’s Take: Texas Tech is not in a hurry to get rid of Kingsbury, although you can bet it wants defensive improvement. We know his offenses will score points, but will it be enough to have a winning season? Even if he has another 5-7 year, he survives.

STATUS: Slightly Sweaty

Overview: Mullen seems to be off the hot seat at this point, especially since he’s been mentioned for bigger jobs, but the Bulldogs definitely slipped this season after tremendous buildup in the two previous campaigns. After going 10-3 and 9-4 the last two seasons, Mississippi State was 5-7 this year, the first losing record for Mullen since his first season in Starkville. Late-season wins over Texas A&M and Ole Miss were bright spots.

Farrell’s Take: Mississippi State isn’t looking to get rid of Mullen, but what if he has a big-time losing season next year and goes 4-8 or 3-9? With an internal hire at athletic director, the heat won’t be as bad as it would with an outside hire, but was Dak Prescott the main reason for Mullen’s success? Next season could tell the story, but he will survive.

Hot Seat Status: Only Toasty