Five biggest storylines to follow for the late signing period
The first early signing period in college football wiped the majority of senior prospects off the board before the Times Square ball dropped on their graduation year. The signing period that starts on the first Wednesday in February, then, will look a lot different from past years, but there are still big recruiting questions left to answer between now and then.
WHICH SCHOOL TAKES HOME THE TEAM RANKINGS TITLE?
Although the early signing period gave us a better perspective on the team recruiting rankings race, the question about which school will claim the title will not be determined until February. The Alabama Crimson Tide dominated the team recruiting rankings for a decade, but 2018 looks like the year new teams will vie for the top overall class in college football.
The early signing period saw Ohio State cough up a 600-point lead and sink into second place after losing commitments like five-star Jaiden Woodbey and four-star Emory Jones while also failing to secure five-star in-state offensive tackle Jackson Carman. Georgia, meanwhile, jumped from third spot into first place after adding 960 points to their team total and now assumes a commanding lead of its own.
Even after it’s disappointing early signing period, Ohio State still remains in second place and in the ball game for Rivals100 prospects like Rasheed Walker, Tyreke Smith and Tyler Friday. Penn State is also in on those prospects and sits not too far behind the Buckeyes at No. 4. Clemson, meanwhile, came from outside the top 30 to crack the top 12 after a big Early Signing Period that saw them land, among others, five-stars K.J. Henry and Jackson Carman and the Tigers are only sitting at 15 commitments with room to move up.
Nick Saban has won eight of the last 10 Rivals.com team recruiting titles, with only ' in 2010 and 2015 interrupting Alabama’s perfection. Following the early signing period, though, the Crimson Tide are 1,000 points out of first place and there does not appear to be enough possibilities left on the board for them to make up that ground in February. That sustained level of dominance demands respect, however. Like early-2000s-era Tiger Woods, the leaders always have one eye on what the Crimson Tide are doing no matter how many strokes they are behind.
FIVE-STAR RECRUITMENTS STILL TO BE SETTLED
A robust 20 of 26 five-star prospects in this 2018 class signed during the early period. That only leaves wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, cornerback Patrick Surtain, defensive back Isaac Taylor-Stuart, defensive back Brendan Radley-Hiles, athlete Devon Williams and wide receiver Justyn Ross still to sign among current five stars.
St. Brown plans to set the stage for his late period recruitment by naming his top three schools on Christmas Day. No. 3 overall in the Rivals100, St. Brown is the highest-ranked player available in the 2018 class after Nos. 1 and 2 Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields signed in the early period. Surtain is the only other top 10 ranked player in 2018 still available, and he goes into the final six weeks of his recruitment with Alabama, Clemson, Florida State, LSU, Miami and Ohio State in contention.
Taylor-Stuart sits just outside the top 10 and has a top six that consists of Tennessee, USC, Alabama, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Georgia. Radley-Hines, No. 17 in the Rivals100, is a former Nebraska commit who has already taken official visits with the Cornhuskers and with Oklahoma. Sitting at No. 19, athlete Devon Williams has only taken a Utah official visit so far but Oregon is considered the favorite to land his services. Wide receiver Justyn Ross, meanwhile, released a top three of Alabama, Auburn and Clemson earlier this month.
HOW BAD WILL SCHOOLS WITH RECENT COACHING TRANSITIONS BE HURT?
The full impact of an early signing period on new coaching hires will be better understood after this inaugural early signing period that followed a robust coaching carousel season. There is no way around it, though, having 65 percent of the prospects rated Power 5 caliber completely untouchable for the final six weeks of the process severely hurts those programs trying to salvage 2018 recruiting classes.
Honestly, I expected a greater sense of urgency from the group of new Power Five head coaches considering the circumstances. Meanwhile, some coaches had to fix or address previous situations before they could fully move forward with recruiting. Jeremy Pruitt had a very nasty and very public parting of ways with a long-time quarterback commit at Tennessee, Scott Frost went back to UCF to coach a bowl game and Chip Kelly purged UCLA’s commitment list of several prospects who did not fit system.
But, there were some wins, including Dan Mullen flipping long-time Ohio State quarterback commit Emory Jones, Nebraska took four-star quarterback Adrian Martinez from Tennessee and Florida State surprisingly stole former Ohio State five-star commit Jaiden Woodbey after an extremely short courtship.
For each of the 11 Power Five schools that have new head coaches in the last month, though, there is still work to be done in the late period, and in most cases significant work. Oregon is in the best shape with the No. 13 ranked class with 15 signed and 21 total prospects committed, but that should not be surprising considering they were the only Power Five program to promote from within. On the other end of the spectrum, Arizona State, Arkansas, Florida State, Oregon State and Nebraska all sit outside the top 45 in the team recruiting rankings, each with a dozen or fewer prospects signed.
WILL COMMITS WHO DID NOT SIGN FLIP TO OTHER SCHOOLS?
There are over 130 prospects in this 2018 class committed to Power Five programs who did not sign in the early period. That list includes highly-ranked guys like UCLA quarterback commit Dorian Thompson-Robinson and USC defensive tackle commit Trevor Trout, both Rivals100 prospects. But, while Thompson-Robinson and Trout appear solidly committed to their schools of choice and simply want to sign in the February period, others waited because their commitments may not be 100 percent solid.
One of the hardest recruitments to project is that of four-star Georgia linebacker Otis Reese, who committed to Michigan before his junior season but has long been thought more likely to sign with an SEC school. Official visits to Georgia and Michigan are planned for January, but after their early signing period blitz do the Bulldogs have room for Reese still?
Other flip possibilities include UCLA commit Olaijah Griffin, who originally committed to the previous UCLA staff but is considering USC, Tennessee and could possibly draw more interest in the coming weeks. Kentucky four-star linebacker commit Xavier Peters, meanwhile, has scheduled an official visit to Florida for January, while Texas four-star defensive tackle commit Keondre Coburn could potentially take a look at Texas A&M and others in January.
WILL SCHOOLS BE MORE LENIENT IN RELEASING PLAYERS FROM LOIS?
One of the primary concerns brought up whenever an early signing period was discussed in the past was, how should a coach leaving or being fired after letters of intent are signed be handled? When the legislation that provided for an early signing period was passed, there was no rider attached that dealt with this issue, which leaves the school with sole discretion on releasing a player from his letter of intent in the case of a coach leaving.
Unsurprisingly the issue came to the fore immediately during this inaugural early signing period when Charlie Fisher, head coach of FCS program Western Illinois, reportedly accepted an offer to join Herm Edwards' staff at Arizona State a day after signing 13 prospective student-athletes to letters of intent with the Leathernecks.
The issue has always existed to some extent. In 2015 Rivals100 linebacker Roquan Smith announced his intentions to sign with UCLA on National Signing Day. Before he sent his letter of intent to Westwood, however, Smith learned that Bruins’ defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich was leaving for the NFL’s Atlanta Falcons.
Smith never did sign his letter of intent. He was fortunate to learn of the coaching change prior to binding himself to UCLA and ended up at Georgia where he has become one of the nation’s top linebackers. Others were not as fortunate. That same year Notre Dame quarterbacks coach Matt LaFleur, Oklahoma defensive coordinator Jerry Montgomery, Ohio State running backs coach Stan Drayton and LSU wide receivers coach Adam Henry all left for jobs in the NFL within a week of National Signing Day. Undoubtedly we are going to see increases in situations like this with an earlier signing period, and it has already started.