Farrell Forecast: Predicting Week 4 games
The Farrell Forecast isn’t only about predicting where high school football players will end up in college. It’s also about picking the winners and losers from each college football weekend. Last week, I was a dismal 8-6 overall. My one highlight was picking the Spartans’ upset over Notre Dame, and my lowlight was having the ‘Noles routing Louisville. Here’s my take on the Saturday games that interest me the most.
All times Eastern.
FLORIDA AT TENNESSEE, 3:30 p.m., CBS
The rundown: A must win game for Butch Jones? Perhaps not to the Vols administration, but to the fans, this is do-or-die for the head coach. Florida has the defensive edge, but the Vols have the edge on offense. The big question is, can a Tennessee offense that has struggled handle the No. 1 defense in the country? I’m going with the defense here.
Prediction: Florida 20, Tennessee 13
WISCONSIN AT MICHIGAN STATE, Noon, Big Ten Network
The rundown: A battle of two teams that love to play physical, power football. This comes down to the home field advantage and the confidence the offense gained last weekend against Notre Dame. Wisconsin will be going with a new quarterback and that could be dangerous against the nasty front seven of the Spartans. I’ll take MSU in a tight one.
Prediction: Michigan State 24, Wisconsin 20
ARKANSAS VS. TEXAS A&M at AT&T Stadium, 9 p.m., ESPN
The rundown: The Aggies offense has looked very good and I am a believer in quarterback Trevor Knight, but I’m also a believer in the cardiac kids on the Arkansas team. They just never seem to go away and Austin Allen has actually been more efficient and accurate than Knight overall. I’m calling for the upset here, but I don’t feel overly confident about it.
Prediction: Arkansas 34, Texas A&M 28
GEORGIA AT OLE MISS, Noon, ESPN
The rundown: Is Ole Miss the best 1-2 team in the nation? Oklahoma and Notre Dame may disagree, but the Rebels are a dangerous team if they can avoid mistakes. That’s a big “if” however. But with Georgia unable to get the running game going and starting a freshman quarterback, its crazy to bet against the Rebels at home. They can’t go 1-3 can they?
Prediction: Ole Miss 30, Georgia 13
LSU AT AUBURN, 6 p.m., ESPN
The rundown: Welcome to the Hot Seat Bowl, where the losing coach can start packing a bag for a new home. The Auburn offense has given me zero hope, so even at home, I’m going against them and taking the road favorite.
Prediction: LSU 23, Auburn 13
PENN STATE AT MICHIGAN, 3:30 p.m., ABC
The rundown: The first true test for Michigan? That depends on how well Colorado does the rest of the way, but the Buffs gave the Wolverines some trouble until the end last weekend. Is that a bad sign heading into this game? I don’t think so. Michigan is favored by nearly three touchdowns, and that feels a little steep. It wins this one by double digits.
Prediction: Michigan 31, Penn State 17
OKLAHOMA STATE AT BAYLOR, 7 p.m., FOX
The rundown: The Pokes should be undefeated and ranked right now. The Central Michigan robbery could haunt them all season. I like the offense the Cowboys roll out even more than Baylor’s, which has limited weapons compared to last year. Baylor is more than a touchdown favorite, but it loses this one in a shootout that could go to overtime.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 43, Baylor 40
STANFORD AT UCLA, 8 p.m., ABC
The rundown: Stanford’s defense looks very good and UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen has limited weapons. Throw in Stanford Heisman candidate Christian McCaffrey and how he should carve up the UCLA defense and the field goal line on this one is way too low. But what’s the rule? When the line is suspiciously low, someone knows something, so I’ll go with Stanford in a score closer than it should be.
Prediction: Stanford 38, UCLA 31
FLORIDA STATE AT SOUTH FLORIDA, noon, ABC
The rundown: FSU made me look very stupid last week as I predicted the ‘Noles to run away from Louisville. USF is no joke and this will be a tough test, but Jimbo Fisher won’t let his team lose two in a row and it should come out very angry. This is the game Dalvin Cook looks like Dalvin Cook again.
Prediction: Florida State 30, USF 17
WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA, 10:30 p.m., PAC-12 NETWORK
The rundown: The Huskies are a darkhorse playoff contender, make no mistake about it. Arizona has not looked so hot this season and are nearly a two touchdown underdog at home. I don’t see any way Washington loses this game.
Prediction: Washington 44, Arizona 24
PITTSBURGH AT NORTH CAROLINA, 3:30 p.m., ESPNU
The rundown: Perhaps the most overlooked matchup of the weekend, this is a huge game for divisional positioning. I picked Pitt to pull one out last weekend against Oklahoma State and they came up short and the UNC offense is starting to come together. But I’ll take Pitt’s power running game and defense in an upset here. Prediction: Pitt 31, UNC 28
CALIFORNIA AT ARIZONA STATE, 10 p.m., ESPN2
The rundown: Take the over, whatever it is, because neither of these teams can stop a thing. Cal quarterback Davis Webb is impressive and a perfect fit for Sonny Dykes offense, but Arizona State has too many weapons and I think N’Keal Harry goes off. Now if only he could tackle on defense for the Sun Devils.
Prediction: Arizona State 51, Cal 41
