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Fact or Fiction: UNC will pounce on Auburn decommitment

National recruiting director Mike Farrell and national recruiting analyst Adam Gorney tackle three topics daily and determine whether they believe the statements or not.

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1. Auburn decommitment Trenton Simpson will end up at UNC.

Trenton Simpson
Trenton Simpson (Nick Lucero/Rivals.com)

Farrell’s take: FACT. Mack Brown has it rolling on the recruiting front for North Carolina and when Simpson, a huge in-state target for the Tar Heels, de-committed it became clear to me he’s going to UNC. He’s very close to his family, he’s visited UNC numerous times as an Auburn commitment and Brown and his staff do a great job of recruiting. This wasn’t a flip to UNC but it might as well have been.

Gorney’s take: FACT. The sense that I’m getting is that Simpson prefers to be closer to home and while that makes Clemson and Georgia viable options, the comfort level at North Carolina plus the opportunity to get on the field from Day 1 might be too much to pass up. It would be huge for the Tar Heels as well because Simpson has the potential to be a five-star prospect and the recruiting class is absolutely loaded with stars on that side of the ball.

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2. Florida will begin to dominate Miami and Florida State in recruiting.

Farrell’s take: FACT. If things continue to go the way they are on the field, the tide will turn in recruiting. It’s not that Florida isn’t recruiting well, but they are currently behind FSU and Miami in our team rankings for 2020. But FSU has a serious hot seat situation with Willie Taggart and Manny Diaz has not gotten off to a great start at all in Miami. Dan Mullen keeps winning games and developing players and that will help recruiting even though Mullen isn’t known as a dynamic recruiter.

Gorney’s take: FICTION. Things are bordering on embarrassingly bad at both Miami and Florida State and both programs are still out-recruiting Florida at this point. There is no question in my mind Mullen can coach circles around both Taggart and Diaz - that is just evident by watching football games - but Florida State and Miami still have tremendous name recognition in the recruiting world and that’s not going to change. If there is a coaching change at Florida State, which seems to look very possible at this point, a new staff will breathe new life into the Seminoles and recruiting will be fine.

3. Oregon is in the playoff conversation.

Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert (USA Today Sports)

Farrell’s take: FICTION. Oregon is doing very well but it has to be kicking itself for that loss to Auburn because it killed their chances to make the playoff. The Pac-12 is too weak and there aren’t enough big wins left on the schedule for Oregon to break through even if it runs the table. And that’s a shame because it is a very dangerous football team.

Gorney’s take: FACT. I agree that it’s not looking good for Oregon, but there is so much football left to play and we all know it gets crazy every year, so I’m not counting the Ducks out just yet. But I also take a different opinion than others and don’t think it’s smart for major Power Five schools like Oregon to play these challenging non-conference games early in the season. If you lose, then you find yourself in this situation on the outside looking in. If you win, that’s fine, but beating up on a lower-level school would have Oregon undefeated and definitely above others in the rankings right now. If you win the Pac-12 and go undefeated then you’re probably in the playoff and so testing yourselves early, while admirable, doesn’t help getting into the Final Four if you lose.

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