Fact or Fiction: K.J. Costello is a possible first-rounder
National recruiting director Mike Farrell and national recruiting analyst Adam Gorney tackle three topics daily and determine whether they believe the statements or not.
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1. K.J. Costello should be getting Round 1 chatter.
Farrell’s take: FICTION. Yes he set an SEC record with 623 passing yards against LSU in his first game at Mississippi State under coach Mike Leach and for sure he’s already raised his draft stock, but let’s slow down a bit when it comes to potential first round talk.
Everyone is looking for that guy after Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields in next year's NFL Draft and Trey Lance at North Dakota State has a lot of fans. But Kyle Trask and others are also raising their stock and Costello is still, to me, a third-rounder at best with some questions about his release and durability. He also made a couple of key mistakes, including a pick-six in the game. Costello was arguably the talk of the first week of SEC football, but let’s keep things in perspective.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. Only so many quarterbacks are going to go in the first round and Lawrence, Fields and Lance are almost guaranteed to go that early. I’m not as high on Iowa State's Brock Purdy as others, I really like Trask a ton and Jamie Newman is going to be in that late-first or second-round discussion.
After Costello’s game against LSU, he could enter that Trask/Newman range as well but we also must remember that Leach’s offense is designed for quarterbacks to put up massive numbers. Gardner Minshew went in the sixth round and he’s already starting in the NFL. I don’t think Costello goes in the first round, but he is already improving his draft stock.
2. The Gators are the team to beat for DB Terrion Arnold.
Farrell’s take: FACT. It’s an interesting race for the talented defensive back out of Florida and Florida, Alabama and Georgia have been considered the leader at different times. The Gators would have to lose this one as their lead is that strong. And with continued dominant play and the ability to play early in a secondary that needs help only adds to the lead.
Gorney’s take: FICTION. I’m not as convinced as others that Arnold is leaning toward Florida let alone it’s the team to beat for him. For a long time, Alabama looked like the team to beat and the Crimson Tide definitely think he’s one of the top defensive backs in this class. He also had a fantastic unofficial visit to Georgia with Korey Foreman, Maason Smith, Brock Vandagriff and others recently. Florida is very much involved and Arnold could land there but the other SEC schools aren’t going to give up easily.
3. USC and UCLA has left the state of California open for poaching.
Farrell’s take: FACT. This is ridiculous. Najee Harris, Justin Flowe, Kayvon Thibodeaux, DJ Uiagalelei, Bryce Young, Wyatt Davis and many more have left the state since 2017 and now Korey Foreman and others will be leaving in 2021. Poor recruiting at both programs have opened the door for other schools selling a chance at a national title and kids are buying in. The 2022 cycle looks a little better and USC is the key here but what happened to UCLA landing their share of studs like Darnay Holmes, Josh Rosen and Jaelan Phillips? Those days seem to be gone.
Gorney’s take: FACT. None of the top-eight prospects in the state of California are committed to USC although I definitely would not count out the Trojans for Foreman, who could have USC and LSU at the top of his list.
Still, players leaving the state of California is a major problem. Last recruiting cycle, there were four five-stars in the state and none signed with the Trojans. It’s just a fact that when players visit Clemson or Alabama or Ohio State or Georgia, the environment is just different. When Foreman recently visited Baton Rouge, a restaurant put his name on their marquee to welcome him to town. That level of attention is not as common in Pac-12 towns.
USC assistant coach Donte Williams is one of the best recruiters in college football and the Trojans still have so much to offer, so it’s possible to close the border again but right now it’s not happening.