Rivals national recruiting analyst John Garcia Jr. is joined by national recruiting analyst Greg Smith, 1stAndTenFlorida.com's Jason Higdon and CanesCounty.com's Marcus Benjamin to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
MORE FACT OR FICTION: Notre Dame will have fight to keep Deuce Knight's pledge
MORE GARCIA: Predictions from Hotbed World Media Day | Takeaways from IMG Media Day | Toughest rankings questions in Florida | Who will have a higher-ranked recruiting class, Alabama or Auburn?
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1. A Week 1 win against rival Miami would instantly boost Florida recruiting.
Higdon: FACT. I believe it’s hard to define an entire college football season around one game but unfortunately that’s the situation that the Florida Gators and head coach Billy Napier may find themselves in as they open the 2024 season against the Miami Hurricanes. After closing the season last year with the loss to archrival Florida State, I believe it would be very difficult to open the season with a loss to another in-state rival in the Swamp.
Recruits across the Southeast are watching Florida and expecting to see a big improvement. Florida has hired a bunch of new personnel, including back office guys, recruiting guys and coaches – and the entire strength and conditioning program has been revamped. The vibe around the team right now is higher than it has been in the previous several seasons, so it is vital for the Gators to put a good product on the field and come away with an opening win against Miami.
Garcia: FACT. There's no program with a higher recruiting ceiling that has prospects keeping an eye on the on-field product like Florida targets have admitted to, so an in-state win against a program recruiting much better of late would certainly create some ease. The run of games in between Miami and UCF about a month later are very winnable for Napier and company, and a glance at the back-half of the schedule proves just how important the start to the season is. Doing so against Mario Cristobal and showing progress along the way could lead to large questions beginning to get answered, most importantly the stability within the staff.
One key recruit admitted there was unease with the perception in Gainesville and it has become a key reason the Gators have slipped on his list. Many others already off the board have shared similar sentiment, so pushing against that with a rivalry win will go a long way.
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2. Florida State plucking Chase Loftin was one of the bigger surprises of the summer.
Smith: FACT. It’s not a surprise that a top prospect would want to go to Florida State to play for coach Mike Norvell. It’s not even a surprise that a top Midwest tight end would want to head South. What makes this surprising in who the ‘Noles beat out to gain the pledge from Loftin. The four-star attends Millard South High School in Omaha, Neb. The school is 50 minutes away from Nebraska’s campus and coach Matt Rhule and his staff made Loftin a priority. Most thought if he left the state it would be for Missouri, which has been steadily building under coach Eli Drinkwitz. Florida State blew away Loftin on his visit and surged quickly in the recruitment. His relationship with Norvell pushed it over the top but this is quietly a very good (and surprising) get for Florida State.
Garcia: FACT. Not only is it rare for Florida State to work into the state of Nebraska for a pass-catcher, as there isn't a state native on the program's 2024 roster, but doing so against a local Cornhusker target makes for that much more of a recruiting upset. Loftin is the only current Florida State commitment hailing from beyond SEC and ACC country. He is also the only tight end projection within the top-25 class committed to Mike Norvell's program to date. It means the early prioritization and home-run official visit just two weeks before he came off the board built the Seminoles up to No. 1 for the Midwestern standout.
Though unusual and certainly outside the box, Norvell has built a reputation as a strong evaluator, especially with offensive prospects – so Loftin's surprise decision shouldn't be the only story surrounding this win.
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3. Miami will sign at least three five-star recruits in the 2025 cycle.
Benjamin: FACT. In the 2024 cycle, Miami signed three five-star prospects: Justin Scott, Marquise Lightfoot and Armondo Blount.
In late October last year, Blount, a 2025 prospect, was no longer committed to the Hurricanes, Lightfoot was a four-star recovering from an injury and Scott was committed to Ohio State. Blount reclassified to the 2024 class and flipped to Miami along with Scott. Lightfoot gained a star after a stellar performance at the U.S. Army All-American Game, giving Miami three five-star signees.
Miami was also able to flip blue-chip prospects Jordan Lyle and Adarius Hayes late in the cycle.
Miami has zero five-stars committed for the 2025 class, but much can change between now and signing day. I'm betting on four-star Miami safety commit Hylton Stubbs to gain his fifth star at some point during the season, and Elijah Melendez is also a prospect to watch that could see an increase in rating.
The Hurricanes are in the running for five-star prospects Elijah Griffin and LSU commit DJ Pickett. The staff is also pushing for Oregon commit Dallas Wilson and Jaime Ffrench, who are near five-star status.
The Canes will continue to push for the top prospects in the country, especially if they have success on the field. History tells us there will be some late flips to The U, and I'm willing to bet the Hurricanes will repeat history.
Garcia: FICTION. Taking the conservative route against Mario Cristobal is rarely wise, but the current class has zero five-stars in the fold despite holding 20 pledges. While the coach has become known for his ability to close, Miami would have to push toward some of the biggest flips and/or wins of any program in the cycle to pull it off again this winter.
We know five-star Pickett remains a top priority despite his LSU commitment, and the family ties to The U won't hurt the chances when pen meets paper. Even if that one is pulled off, two more five-stars would be needed to accomplish the feat. Even if one current commitment gets the bump to five-star status (Stubbs may be the closest at the moment), it would still require another upset or come-from-behind win to get to three.
All of those dominoes, which would also include an improved on-field product, seem unlikely to unravel in the same direction simultaneously.
