College Football Playoff: Biggest questions for next ranking
Statement Saturday delivered in a big way, and now we're one step closer to figuring out the four teams that will compete in the College Football Playoff. Check out the five biggest questions we are left with heading into the second College Football Playoff ranking, which will be released Tuesday night.
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1. Which one-loss team will be ranked the highest?
There is a six-pack of Power Five teams left with a single loss – Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Washington State and West Virginia. The College Football Playoff Selection Committee will have tough decisions to make when slotting these one-loss teams.
Georgia and Michigan look like the best of this group if we're going by the eye test and both of their losses have come to teams ranked in the top four of last week's poll (LSU and Notre Dame) in true road games. Oklahoma and West Virginia have both lost to teams ranked in the Top 25 (Texas and Iowa State) but only West Virginia's came in a true road game. Oklahoma's three-point loss to Texas was at a neutral site. West Virginia and Oklahoma will sort themselves out in a matchup in three weeks.
Ohio State's loss on the road to currently unranked Purdue wasn't pretty but the Boilermakers appear to be better than its record indicates.
That leaves Washington State. The Pac-12 has been wild this year and it seems like any team can win on any given day. That being said, Washington State has been the most consistent team, but its three-point loss to an unranked USC is the worst loss that any of these one-loss teams have taken. Washington State has a quality strength of schedule ranking but it's hard to see enough good wins that will boost the Cougars to the top of this group.
FOR EXCLUSIVE GEORGIA COVERAGE: UGASports.com
FOR EXCLUSIVE MICHIGAN COVERAGE: TheWolverine.com
FOR EXCLUSIVE OHIO STATE COVERAGE: BuckeyeGrove.com
FOR EXCLUSIVE OKLAHOMA COVERAGE: SoonerScoop.com
FOR EXCLUSIVE WAZZU COVERAGE: WazzuWatch.com
FOR EXCLUSIVE WEST VIRGINIA COVERAGE: WVSports.com
2. How many Power Five conferences will be left out?
There are only four spots in the College Football Playoff and, unless Notre Dame stumbles down the stretch, at least two of the Power Five conferences won't be competing for the top prize in college football. The winners of the SEC and ACC championship games will most likely be Alabama and Clemson and they will make the final top four in the rankings. That leaves the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 battling for the final spot.
In the Big 12, there could be bedlam if Oklahoma takes a loss from Oklahoma State this coming weekend. See what I did there? Running through all the scenarios will make your head spin but it boils down to this: If West Virginia or Oklahoma wins out, either would have a very legitimate claim and resume to gain that fourth spot.
In the Big Ten, if Michigan wins out it'll likely be in the playoff. It gets a little more complicated if Ohio State wins out. The Buckeyes will have a very strong resume if they beat Michigan this year but they will need Purdue and Penn State to be ranked after Championship Weekend for their resume to be unquestionably better than that of Washington State. On top of that, they'll need Oklahoma to lose prior so the Big 12 champion, presumably West Virginia in this case, won't have a better resume.
The Pac-12 could be the longest shot. It needs Washington State to win out, and get some help in other conferences.
3. How far behind Alabama is Clemson?
FOR EXCLUSIVE ALABAMA COVERAGE: BamaInsider.com
FOR EXCLUSIVE CLEMSON COVERAGE: TigerIllustrated.com
Very few things are "no-brainers" in college football but there is no doubt Alabama and Clemson are the two best teams in the country right now. Alabama just used LSU's impressive defense as a punching bag and Heisman frontrunner Tua Tagovailoa threw two touchdowns and nearly 300 yards against a secondary that features four future NFL players. Ed Orgeron's offense hasn't been anything to write home about but it has played well this season. That is, until Alabama just shut them out in Death Valley, ending any hope that LSU had that this offense was different than previous years.
The Crimson Tide are, deserve to be and will continue to be the top-ranked team in the College Football Playoff Rankings. But is Clemson closing the gap? Both teams have played the same number of teams that are currently ranked and the statistical similarities are staggering. Clemson averages about 30 fewer yards per game, Clemson averages about four fewer points per game but both teams have scored the same number of offensive touchdowns. Clemson gives up about 25 fewer yards per game than Alabama and both teams give up virtually the same amount of points per game.
This question could be argued endlessly but fans are enjoying watching each week as both teams try to one-up the other. Well, the fans of teams they play each week don't seem to be enjoying it much.
4. Should Michigan be ranked ahead of Notre Dame?
FOR EXCLUSIVE MICHIGAN COVERAGE: TheWolverine.com
FOR EXCLUSIVE NOTRE DAME COVERAGE: BlueAndGold.com
Notre Dame opened the season with a 24-17 win over Michigan. But that was a long time ago. Do the Fighting Irish deserve to be ranked higher than Michigan right now? We'll find out on Tuesday but there are valid arguments on both sides. Michigan's four marquee wins over Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State are a better four-game combination than anything Notre Dame could put together right now. Michigan's defense is statistically the best in the country and, while Notre Dame's defense is also very good, Don Brown's defensive squad has shut down better offenses than Notre Dame has faced.
Most importantly, the Michigan offense is much improved since the beginning of the season. There are plenty of stats to rattle off that show it but it's obvious to anybody that watched Michigan earlier this year and compared it to the last few weeks.
Notre Dame's argument is pretty simple. It is undefeated and beat Michigan head-to-head. That seems to end the debate there. Its offense is humming and the defense is stout. The Fighting Irish beat Michigan with their current backup quarterback (Brandon Wimbush) and without arguably their most explosive offensive player (Dexter Williams). Yes, Michigan's offense is different right now but so is Notre Dame's with Ian Book at quarterback and Williams running the ball. Notre Dame has scored more than 30 points in five of Book's six starts this year and he has one of the highest completion percentages in the nation.
No, the wins Notre Dame has aren't as impressive as Michigan's but that head-to-head victory still carries a lot of weight. Northwestern is the only other common opponent and both teams played the Wildcats on the road. Michigan won by three and Notre Dame won by ten.
5. Where will UCF be ranked?
FOR EXCLUSIVE UCF COVERAGE: UCFSports.com
The Knights are one of four undefeated teams remaining and are riding a 21-game winning streak so what will it take for the College Football Playoff Selection Committee to put them within shouting distance of the top four? McKenzie Milton is in the top 20 of passing efficiency and has UCF near the top of the total offense rankings. Defensively, UCF is ranked second in the nation in turnover margin and in the top 25 in scoring defense.
The biggest argument against UCF is its weak schedule but it is one of five teams averaging 45 points or more and also is outscoring its opponents by at least 20 points. The fact that the Knights are really dominating the teams they are supposed to dominate should carry at least some weight with the selection committee.