Big Ten Spotlight: Storylines to follow during late signing period

The 2018 class looked like the one in which the Big Ten Conference would finally produce its first team recruiting rankings national champion, but the inaugural Early Signing Period saw more disappointment than excitement for conference programs near the top of the standings. What storylines remain for the late signing period?

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Ohio State held a 600-point lead in the team-recruiting rankings heading into the Early Signing Period, but saw it all evaporate when Georgia went on a run of big signings, including five-stars Jamaree Salyer and Cade Mays. Conversely, the Buckeyes missed out on five-star Jackson Carman and watched former commits Emory Jones and Jaiden Woodbey flip to other schools. Ohio State has quietly climbed back within striking distance of the Bulldogs, however, adding a commitment from Rivals100 defensive end Tyreke Smith. The Buckeyes now sit less than 250 points behind Georgia and still have some big fish on the line, including five-star offensive tackle Rasheed Walker and five-star cornerback Patrick Surtain, though their chances with the former are much stronger than those with the latter.

The days when National Signing Period was the zenith of the recruiting calendar appear to be over after a large majority of Power Five prospects decided to sign in the inaugural early December period. That trend appears strongest in the Big Ten, where several classes are all but concluded and few have many outstanding needs remaining. Consider that since the conference expanded to 14 teams in 2014 it has signed an average of 308 prospects to letters of intent per class. Last month, 272 prospective student athletes signed letters of intent. So if the 2018 class holds to form, then over 88 percent of the total classes for the Big Ten are done and signed. And this is only the first year of the Early Signing Period. Expectations are that early signings increase in future years, relegating the traditional National Signing Day to being a largely unimportant date on the recruiting calendar.

It is surprising to see Nebraska sitting second-to-last in the Big Ten team recruiting rankings, even considering the coaching change in Lincoln. The timing of the Early Signing Period was not kind to new head coaches, and particularly to Frost, who had to split recruiting time and effort with his dedication to coaching UCF in their New Year’s Day bowl game. Frost still was able to land eight commitments between his hire date and the Early Signing Period, the most notable of the group being Rivals250 quarterback Adrian Martinez, who flipped from Tennessee. Climbing out of the Big Ten team rankings basement, though, will require several big additions over the next month. It starts with this first visit weekend in January, during which the Cornhuskers are hosting double-digit official visitors, including four-stars Dominick Watt, Jarrett Bell and Miles Jones.

The Rivals team recruiting rankings formula takes into account only the 20 highest- rated recruits in a class for the team total. So, schools that currently have fewer than 20 signees/commitments in 2018 will get full points for each addition up to 20, while schools with 20 or more signees/commitments only get the difference between the points of their newest adds and the lower-rated prospects they replace in the rankings. At just 14 signees/commits, Nebraska has the biggest opportunity for upward mobility in the late signing period. Northwestern is next with just 16 signees, but the Wildcats could be done in 2018. Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois all sit at 19 signees/commits, so they will get full points for their next addition before starting to replace lower-rated prospects.

The Wolverines' 2018 class has been decidedly less inspiring than the 2017 class, which finished in fourth place in the national team recruiting rankings with three five-star prospects who ranked among the top 30 overall players. Of the 16 prospects signed in December, just six are rated four-stars. The Wolverines' highest-ranked commitment in the class – linebacker Otis Reese – did not sign in the early period and will be a challenge for the Wolverines to hold on to after official visits elsewhere this month. Michigan, however, has a chance to make the biggest late signing period splash in the Big Ten with the prospects they have left on the board. They look very strong for Rivals100 prospects Nick Petit-Frere and Tyler Friday, and are also in the hunt for wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, offensive tackle Jarrett Patterson and cornerback Vincent Gray.