Not every first-rounder in the NFL Draft pans out. We all know that. I won’t even bore you with a list of some of the biggest busts in NFL history because you already know the names.
But who from this year has a “bust factor” that is high despite great talent? Here are five that could flop.
NFL DRAFT: Schools with most first-rounders | Schools with surprising success | Schools with disappointing results
Farrell’s take: Trubisky, a three-star out of high school despite putting up gaudy numbers, waited his turn at UNC, which I applaud. Too many kids transfer out the moment they don’t win the starting job, and it can derail their careers. However, with one full season as a starter, I worry that he’s going to get pushed too quickly by whatever team takes him, lose confidence and struggle. He has the talent – the arm, accuracy, mobility and attitude – but one-year college starters at quarterback worry me, especially when taken by poor teams.
Farrell’s take: Foster, a five-star out of high school, has a ton of talent but really became elite when he slimmed down and got much quicker. Will he add unnecessary weight when he gets that NFL contract? Will the off-field concerns many had about him out of high school and now after the combine bite some team that picks him in round one? His talent is unquestioned when he’s focused, similar to Robert Nkemdiche last year, but how focused will he be dealing with the pro lifestyle?
Farrell’s take: People think I’m crazy for this one, as McCaffrey could play running back or receiver in the NFL, but I see a less talented Reggie Bush - and Bush never lived up to his draft status. McCaffrey will be oft-injured based on the physicality of the NFL and might not be the swiss army knife everyone thinks he will be. As a second-round pick, I could see taking the chance, but he could go as high as No. 8 in the draft. That’s way too high for me.
Farrell’s take: No one has shot up the draft boards more than Humphrey in the last few weeks it seems, but I worry about his natural instincts. He has good size, he is long and athletic and he can close well, but he’s not great at press coverage, he allows way too much separation and he gives up big catches. He gave up too many intermediate and long balls at Alabama (even with a strong pass rush) for me to think he can be elite in the NFL.
Farrell’s take: I don’t know if he’ll land in round one, but if he does, I worry about his bust factor. He’s a long and huge end who doesn’t use that length enough and isn’t as physical as I’d like. He’s inconsistent despite his natural abilities, and I’m not sure about his motor. He’s either a boom or bust to me with little in between.
