Three-point stance: Draft reaches, predictions revisited, more
Today’s edition talks about some potential NFL busts in round one, how my NFL Draft predictions went and a disturbing trend in recruiting.
1. My first-round reaches
Okay, it’s easy to think every first-rounder will go on to become an All-Pro, especially if they hail from the college program you love or were picked by your favorite NFL team. However, we all know that there tend to be as many or more players who underwhelm despite that round one status than there are superstars each year. I’m not afraid to pick a few guys I think will struggle to live up to their contracts. Here they are:
QB Carson Wentz
I just don’t see as much here as others do. The pressure of playing in Philly and a lack of big-time competition in college will show.
The Ravens love physical players, but I don’t see the mean streak I want to see in Stanley to project him as a future Pro Bowler.
The 49ers go in on another Duck in round one and, like Erik Armstead, a guy who struggles to play with leverage. He’s too upright to be a star.
The Bears see him as a situational pass-rusher and that’s fine, but he better get 10 sacks a year as a part-time player to live up to a top 10 pick. I worry he will get engulfed in the NFL with his lack of size.
He lacks size and he’s not an aggressive tackler and we have seen how his eye discipline can hurt him. Tampa Bay sees him as Ronde Barber, but I’m not sure he can pull that off.
Scouts and the Raiders compare him to Bob Sanders because he’s not that big but he’s athletic and loves to hit, but while Sanders had amazing years in 2005 and 2007, he was injured the rest of his career because he lacked size. I see the same thing with Joseph.
I’m not picking on the Gators I promise, but the Falcons see Kam Chancellor in Dan Quinn’s defense. I love Neal's ability to hit but I don’t think he’s a game-changer like that.
He’s athletic and plays the ball well and the Bengals see him as a lockdown guy, but I don’t see a guy who’s consistently physical enough or strong enough to take the pounding needed in run support.
DT Kenny Clark
I don’t see him as a first-rounder. He’s a big, athletic kid and fits a need for the Packers inside on defense, but he’s not consistently physical and he’ll struggle to fill the shoes of BJ Raji against the run.
Arizona is a perfect landing spot for him with the right coach and the right mentor in Tyrann Mathieu, but sometimes you can’t teach desire and motor and I just think Nkemdiche last wanted to be great in high school.
2. Revisiting my first-round predictions
My NFL Draft predictions were hit and miss, so it’s time to brag on the good ones and face the music on the bad ones.
I was correct that UCLA linebacker Myles Jack would free fall, but was wrong in saying Ole Miss offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil would never fall past No. 6.
I was correct, and this wasn’t a stretch, that Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg wouldn’t land in round one despite some rumors, but I was way off that Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa would slide outside the top 10.
I called it that the Buckeyes would have five first-rounders and would fall one short of Miami’s 2004 record of six first-rounders, but I was wrong saying a team would reach for a quarterback as high as top 12.
I was correct that the SEC would have the most first-rounders (stunner there) and I was also correct that Ole Miss receiver Laquon Treadwell wouldn’t be the first receiver taken.
But I was wrong when I said that tight end and offensive guard would be the two positions without a first-rounder but I was correct in saying former Ohio State standout Noah Spence would fall past round one.
3. Time for Cranky Farrell
There’s a disturbing trend that is very slowly starting to take hold among big-time prospects and that’s declaring a final list before a commitment that obviously doesn’t include the school the player will choose. It happened last year with five-star linebacker Rahshaun Smith’s first commitment to Clemson and now with the recent commitment of five-star defensive end Josh Kaindoh to Maryland.
I honestly don’t care if they try to fool the media to add more suspense to their announcement, as we usually find out where a kid is going ahead of time anyhow, but it bothers me that they do this to college coaches who have spent time and money recruiting them.
Kids don't understand how much work, effort, money and time goes into their recruitment from college coaches, so giving them false hope or making them weed through a made-up list of finalists is in poor taste. And the worst part to me? Smith and Kaindoh are not poor character kids. They are clearly getting some bad advice from adults in their lives and I hope other recruits read this. Instead of writing about what an amazing get this is for the Terps and new coach DJ Durkin, I’m writing about Kaindoh’s April 20 tweet with these finalists which is clearly missing a certain school with a turtle as it’s mascot ...
Maybe it’s a coincidence that both players attend IMG Academy, but if I’m a coach down there I’m having a discussion with every prospect on how to handle their commitment in the end. Call me what you want, but I just don’t see the upside to this practice and I hope it ends here.